John Carr
@johncarrabc
Science, technology and the realities of climate change. Born in UK, living in France. Retired research scientist. Current affairs in EU, UK and USA.
Here is world data on wildfires. Going further back is not possible because of the lack of satellite data. The world average data actually shows a decrease. Regional data show big fluctuations. The issue is prevention measures and human set fires. No evidence variations are related to CO2 emissions.
Yes the fire in Gironde are continuing. The real issue beyond anecdotes is is the rate of wildfire really increasing on average.
Migrant arrivals in "small boats" into UK down by factor two in first 5 months of 2026 compared to 2025. Classical media does not seem to report this, so politicians can make it up.
The Strait of Hormuz has been increasingly open to shipping own by Iran and its allies. It has only been closed to allies of the USA.
The evolution of Trump Net Approval Rating is showing a significant downward turn in the past few months. Let's hope this continues to the mid-term elections.
A new poll by Convergent indicate a 12 point lead of Labour in Makerfield by election.
Recent poll for Makerfiled by election indicates Labour (Andy Burnham) will win.
A plot made by Claude AI from multiple sources shows that shipping by USA allies has been zero for the past week but there have been Iran allies crossing. Falling to just two on 11 June.
There is no evidence that Climate Change is reducing food production in the UK or elsewhere. On the contrary, while average temperatures have been rising since 1970, food yields have increased. Here is an example of the yield wheat production in the UK and Europe(27° which has doubled since 1970.
A typical plot I get Claude to make to fill in details of current affairs which are otherwise difficult to find. A plot of shipping transits in the Strait of Hormuz since the start of Gulf War III. This separates ships with flags of Iran friends and foes. (Say if I am going too far).
As a test of Claude, I asked it a question using a line in your bio. The text below is the start of the answer. The rest is 2 pages of text which I do not know how to send with Bluesky.
I think the polls using a question without details are well known. The can be found on Wikipedia: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potenti... about 51% rejoin, 33% stay out. But this majority disappears with the euro requirement.
This is an essential point. Polls taken in 2024 indicate a majority to "Stay out" with the questiion: A condition of rejoining might be the adoption of the euro as currency. If the UK did have to adopt the euro how do you think you would vote if there was a referendum on EU membership tomorrow?
Carrying over from the last election, the Tories have the biggest chunk of spare votes. With 65% voting leave in the referendum, the situation looks vey close to me. I imagine we will be seeing lots of pundits making predictions next week and soon specific opinion polls.
This link is not free but the headline indicates what is is likely to do.
Polls taken in 2024 with the question, should the UK rejoin the EU if the Euro is a condition, were against rejoining. A commitment to the Euro will be a condition even though some countries have avoiding doing so in practise.
Transit of ships in/out Strait of Hormuz using Claude. Pre-war baseline: ~130/day Mar 1–Apr 12: avg 6–7/day Apr 8–12 ceasefire window: brief uptick, then re-closed Apr 17–18 reopening: ~13 tankers May 11: 18 transits (8 in, 10 out) May 12: 12 transits (6 in, 6 out) Nothing is changing much.
Continue with his programme and ensure it is better known. Please see: whathaskeirdone.co.uk
A lot of voters are very alarmed at the increase in immigration after Brexit. To avoid a right-wing government disaster it must come down. Do you not see that?
I found this instructive. Most Labour seats went to Reform, then some to LibDem and some to Green. So it is not clear why their focus should be on Green.
Here is data on radiation dose received for a manned Mars mission. (Data provided by Claude)
The Economist in "How long would it take to read the greatest books of all time?", reports on a website thegreatestbooks.org. Shane Sherman has made “greatest books of all time” (GBOATs). Ranked 3 on the list is Ulysses by James Joyce! How many people in the world have ever managed to read this?