@knassre
Software engineer, electoral geography hobbyist, and puggle-lover.
Bit of a deep cut here but... In the (unfortunately increasingly likely) situation that Hong lost the WI Gov primary, it looks like the main reason will have been the votes Crowley netted in Crucial Waukesha County:
I mean, its not over yet, but DAYUM thats a strange spread considering El-Sayed is currently up by 3.
Remember: Clinton had more supporters against Obama in '08 than Sanders had against her in 2016 (both raw # of votes, and percentage of total votes). If a HUGE number of them actually defected to McCain, no chance Obama would have won in as big of a landslide as he actually did.
Don't forget what GA recently looked like during the biggest blue wave in generations, or what VA recently looked like during a practically-tied national year.
Same nationwide vote share 8 years before that had a "safety margin" that was 50% larger in TX. Remember, there was a time not too long ago where the thought of GA voting blue for president was unfathomable. Only a few years before that, the thought of VA voting blue for rpesident was unfathomable.
The green parties of all the European countries literally denounced Jill Stein and told her to drop out and endorse Kamala. Does that give you any perspective on how AWFUL the US green party is?
But nope. Only 163 elected NATIONWIDE, and only to stuff like "Board of Library Trustees in Littleton MA" (that is actually one of the 163). I bet more than 100 of those were because the green candidate was the only one who bothered to run, and has zero affiliation/involvement with the party.
A large chunk of them were just all the various budget/shutdown stuff, or just "registering Congressional disapproval" nonsense. And by the way, take a look at some of the bipartisan ones that have passed. Are you really going to whine about any of THESE?
I counted: 7/52 seats had NO REPUBLICAN in the fall due to the jungle primary. If you want a fair comparison, look at 2020 (which wasn't great for CA Dems either downballot since they lost 3 of their 2018 seats), which also had 7 no-GOP seats: The red swing from 2020->2022 was 6%
What on earth are you talking about? 2022 was an AWFUL year for Democrats in CA, which combined with NY was the only reason they lost the house.
That is true to an extent, though even as his district has rocketed right, his relative overperformance has dwindled significantly. In 2022+2024 he did barely any better than baseline,
Basically the only bastion of atheism in Texas is Austin, where many of the white progressives live. And they all voted for Talarico because that's actually the CORE of his base, and where he represented in the TX state legislature:
Heck, if you want to trust the google AI assistant (which I definitely do NOT trust), then it claims there aren't any such photos either.
Some of it is also the same ploy Dems did with the DHS shutdown: make mild demands that sound super reasonable, then wait for Trump to inevitably refuse so he looks like the unreasonable one.
Clearly you just read the trash clickbait article from a site that hates Dems instead of reading what is inside. Most of the "wavering" is just the usual "I wont rule anything out" political speak that most senators do daily.
I don't think you have much to be worried about here. Even in a red-wave year, Mejia would probably still win. And 2026 will definitely not be a red wave.
Here's an example of a nuclear-level gerrymander the Dems could go for in MN for '28 (and I'm not certain they'd even go this far). Emmer would probably run in the new 7th against Fischbach, and I'd favor Emmer in that 1:1.
Polling says its in play. Dems still EXTREME underdogs, but at this point its slightly more likely to flip than it was in 2018:
There is a LOT of stuff there, and ICE is only one piece of the picture. Most of this is stuff that Dems are willing to let sweat out more than the GOP is (unlike stuff like SNAP which was a big pressure point for them). The main one they like is FEMA, and its not like that is functioning rn ayways.
Uhh no, the source was just making up nonsense, then an hour later posted something completely different. They were posting ragebait to get engagement from rubes like you who are SO EAGER to hate on the Dems that they don't care if the evidence is real or not. They have no source, no facts.
I'm not joking; basically ALL of the red states are in that window and pretty consistent about it.
A) Clinton got WAY more support in 2008 than Bernie did in 2016 B) 2008 was a landslide, and 2016 wasn't so there was actual urgency C) Shut your damn mouth about "rigged" anything unless you have proof that any ballots were tampered with. Favoritism is unethical but unless you have proof...
Yeah and do you think that record turnout would have been able to save him if nearly 5 million HRC voters had voted for McCain? If that had actually happened, Obama would have lost the popular vote and possibly the electoral college as well.