midgardfinance.com

@midgardfinance

Focusing on long term CAGR and ignoring short term volatility and noise 📈 European investor 🇪🇺 Nordic stocks 🇩🇰🇳🇴🇸🇪🇫🇮🇮🇸🇫🇴🇬🇱

233 Following208 Followers664 Posts

Bluesky

Is this your profile?Claim it and midgardfinance.dirty.social is yours.Claim profile

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· 4d

🇺🇸 $LLY growth is a US story, but the biggest product is not. Q2 2026: #Zepbound books 99% of revenue in the US. #Mounjaro, the same molecule under the diabetes label, books 48%, so most of Lilly's largest product is now sold abroad. midgardfinance.com/companies/LLY/ #pharma

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· 4d

🇺🇸 $LLY has one molecule doing the work. Tirzepatide went from $2.3bn to $14.9bn a quarter in two years under two labels: #Mounjaro for diabetes at $9.9bn, #Zepbound for obesity at $4.9bn. 6.4x in ten quarters. midgardfinance.com/companies/LLY/ #pharma

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· 4d

🇺🇸 $LLY sells one molecule under two names, and they now live in different worlds. Q2 2026 tirzepatide: - #Mounjaro took $4.8bn in the US and $5.2bn outside it. - #Zepbound took $4.9bn in the US and $0.1bn outside it. midgardfinance.com/companies/LLY/ #pharma #Lilly #tirzepatide

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· 5d

The drug that is 40% of 🇩🇰 $NOVO has been passed, and not narrowly. Trailing 12-month sales, diabetes brands only: 🇺🇸 $LLY #Mounjaro $32.5bn against #Ozempic $18.7bn. The cross came in 2025 and Mounjaro is now 1.7x. midgardfinance.com/companies/NOVO-B.CO/ #pharma #$NVO

A line chart on a dark background titled "GLP-1 trailing sales by drug". The vertical axis is trailing twelve-month sales worldwide in billions of US dollars, from zero to about thirty-five. The horizontal axis runs from 2019 to the second quarter of 2026.

Four lines, each labelled at its right-hand end with its latest value. Mounjaro, in green, starts from nothing in 2022, rises almost vertically through 2024 and 2025, crosses above Ozempic during 2025 and ends at 32.5 billion dollars, still climbing steeply. Ozempic, in light blue, climbs from under 2 billion in 2019 to a peak above 19 billion, then flattens and eases to 18.7 billion. Trulicity, in indigo, climbs from about 4 billion to a peak near 8 billion in 2023 and then falls back to 4.2 billion. Rybelsus, in violet, rises to a peak near 3.5 billion and eases to 3.2.

The crossing point of the two leading lines sits in 2025. The gap widens from there to the right-hand edge, where Mounjaro is about 1.7 times Ozempic.

The chart covers diabetes-labelled brands only. The obesity brands, Wegovy and Zepbound, are not included. Both companies are shown to the same quarter, the second quarter of 2026.

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· 5d

🇩🇰 $NOVO sales shrinking in the US and growing everywhere else. Trailing 12-month sales: #Ozempic: DKK 82bn in the US, down from a 94bn peak 📉 #Wegovy injectable: 45bn, down from 53bn 📉 Outside the US both are at record highs, 40bn and 35bn. midgardfinance.com/companies/NOVO-B.CO/ #pharma $NVO

Two line charts side by side on a dark background, titled "Novo Nordisk GLP-1 and obesity, trailing twelve months". The left panel is the US, the right panel is Ex-US. The vertical axis, shared by both, is trailing twelve-month sales in billions of Danish kroner, and each panel runs from 2021 to mid 2026.

Six lines per panel, each labelled at its right-hand end: Ozempic, Wegovy injectable, Wegovy pill, the oral diabetes tablet Rybelsus, Saxenda and Victoza.

The US panel is where the two big lines turn. Ozempic rises from about 20 billion kroner in 2021 to a peak of about 94 billion in the middle of 2025, then falls to about 82. Wegovy injectable peaks at about 53 billion in the same quarter and falls to about 45. Rybelsus drifts down from about 12 billion to 8. Wegovy pill, launched in January 2026, lifts off the axis at the very end.

The Ex-US panel shows the opposite. Both large lines are at their highest points on the chart at the right-hand edge and still rising, Ozempic at about 40 billion kroner and Wegovy injectable at about 35 billion. Rybelsus sits at about 12 billion.

Read together, the same two products are declining in the US and setting records everywhere else. There is no World panel because it would only restate the sum of these two.

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· 7d

🇩🇰 $NOVO ran CagriSema head to head against 🇺🇸 $LLY Tirzepatide, and reported it in one line. #REIMAGINE4, 68 weeks: weight loss 15.2% vs 15.8%, HbA1c 1.9 vs 2.2 points. Non-inferiority met on weight, not met on glucose. midgardfinance.com/companies/NOVO-B.CO/ #pharma $NVO #CagriSema #Tirzepatide

Two bar charts side by side on a dark background, titled "REIMAGINE 4: CagriSema against tirzepatide". Each panel compares two bars: CagriSema, made by Novo Nordisk, in blue, and tirzepatide, made by Eli Lilly, in red. Each company's name is printed under its bar.

The left panel is weight loss at 68 weeks. CagriSema 15.2 percent, tirzepatide 15.8 percent. The panel is labelled "non-inferiority met".

The right panel is HbA1c reduction at 68 weeks, measured in percentage points. CagriSema 1.9, tirzepatide 2.2. The panel is labelled "non-inferiority NOT met".

The two bars are close in both panels, but the trial's dual primary endpoints were judged separately. CagriSema met the non-inferiority margin against tirzepatide on weight reduction and did not meet it on blood glucose. Failing to demonstrate non-inferiority is not the same as being shown inferior; the trial did not establish that tirzepatide is better on HbA1c, only that CagriSema did not prove itself no worse.

The trial was open-label, ran 68 weeks, and enrolled about 1,000 adults with type 2 diabetes inadequately controlled on metformin, with or without an SGLT2 inhibitor. Figures are on the basis of the effect if all participants adhered to treatment.

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· 7d

Both raised 2026 guidance within a day of each other. Both called it a raise. 🇩🇰 $NOVO now guides to 0% to -6%. 🇺🇸 $LLY now guides to +30% to +33%. One of them is raising its way to a smaller year. midgardfinance.com/companies/NOVO-B.CO/ #pharma $NVO

Bar chart on a dark background titled "2026 guidance, after both companies raised it". The vertical axis is full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance, running from minus 20 percent to plus 40 percent, with a bright line at zero.

Five floating range bars in two groups, each bar spanning the low and high end of a guidance range, shaded palest for the oldest vintage.

Novo Nordisk, in light blue, sits entirely below or at the zero line. Guidance of 3 February ran from minus 13 to minus 5 percent. Guidance of 6 May ran from minus 12 to minus 4. The current guidance, issued 4 August, runs from minus 6 to zero.

Eli Lilly, in violet, sits far above. Its prior guidance converts to roughly plus 26 to plus 30 percent, and its updated guidance to plus 30 to plus 33 percent.

Both companies moved their ranges upward, and both described it as a raise. The two sets of bars do not come close to overlapping: the top of Novo's range is about thirty points below the bottom of Lilly's.

The two figures are not measured the same way, and the chart says so underneath. Novo's is adjusted sales growth at constant exchange rates, excluding a one-off rebate reversal. Lilly's is reported revenue growth in dollars, converted from its dollar guidance of 85 to 87 billion against 2025 revenue of 65.2 billion.

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· 7d

🇩🇰 $NOVO is close to a one-molecule company. Semaglutide is 76% of sales worldwide and 87% in the US. #Ozempic alone is 40% of the company, #Wegovy injectable another 25%. Insulin and rare disease together are the remainder. midgardfinance.com/companies/NOVO-B.CO/ #pharma #semaglutide $NVO

Three line charts side by side on a dark background, titled "Novo Nordisk semaglutide as a share of sales". The panels are World, US and Ex-US. The vertical axis is share of all Novo Nordisk sales, from zero to about ninety percent, and each panel runs from late 2020 to mid 2026.

Three lines in each panel. Violet is semaglutide counted across all its brands, which are Ozempic, Wegovy injectable, Wegovy pill and the oral diabetes tablet sold as Rybelsus or Ozempic pill. Light blue is Ozempic alone. Green is Wegovy injectable alone.

Worldwide, semaglutide climbs from under 20 percent in 2020 to 76 percent of all company sales. Ozempic alone rises to about 40 percent and has been flat for roughly two years. Wegovy injectable climbs steadily to about 25 percent.

In the US the same lines are higher and further along: semaglutide reached about 90 percent during 2025 and stands near 87 percent, having eased back from its peak. Ex-US semaglutide is lower at about 63 percent but still rising, and the Wegovy line there is still climbing steeply rather than levelling off.

The three panels together show one company increasingly dependent on a single molecule, with the US furthest into that dependence and the rest of the world following.

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· 9d

🇩🇰 $NOVO raised 2026 guidance a second time, and still guides to a decline. 3 Feb: -5% to -13% 6 May: -4% to -12% 4 Aug: 0% to -6% Sales grew 36% in 2023 and 10% in 2025. Q2 adjusted operating profit DKK 33.4bn, +11%. #Wegovy pill past 5m scripts. midgardfinance.com/companies/NOVO-B.CO/ $NVO

Bar chart on a dark background titled "Novo Nordisk sales growth". The vertical axis is sales growth at constant exchange rates, from minus 20 percent to plus 40 percent, with a bright line drawn at zero.

Seven light blue bars show reported full-year growth, all above zero and rising then falling: 2019 plus 6 percent, 2020 plus 7, 2021 plus 14, 2022 plus 16, 2023 plus 36, 2024 plus 26, 2025 plus 10.

After a gap, three violet bars sit at 2026. These are not results but the company's guidance for the year, drawn as ranges and dated by when each was issued, palest first. Guidance of 3 February runs from minus 13 to minus 5 percent. Guidance of 6 May runs from minus 12 to minus 4. Guidance of 4 August, issued with the second-quarter results, runs from minus 6 to zero and is labelled "0% to -6%".

All three sit entirely below the zero line. The guidance has been raised twice and its top edge now just touches zero, so the best case the company currently guides to is no growth at all, against plus 36 percent three years earlier. The 2026 figures are adjusted sales growth, which excludes a one-off reversal of US rebate provisions that no earlier year on the chart contains.

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· 9d

🇬🇧🇸🇪 $AZN fell up to 7% on reports of early talks to merge with 🇺🇸 $BMY, a $400bn group. Jefferies: "a bit perplexed". Bristol's patent cliff arrives first, and it is already visible. #Revlimid $5.8bn to $2.0bn in 18 months. #Pomalyst $3.5bn to $2.1bn. midgardfinance.com/companies/BMY/ #pharma

Grouped bar chart on a dark background titled "Biggest medicines, trailing revenue". Sixteen medicines from AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb, each drawn as a group of seven bars. Every bar is trailing twelve-month revenue in US dollars, running from the twelve months to December 2024 on the left of each group to the twelve months to June 2026 on the right, and getting brighter as it gets more recent. AstraZeneca medicines are light blue, Bristol Myers Squibb medicines are violet, and each medicine name below the axis is coloured to match. Medicines are ordered by their latest figure, largest first, so the two companies interleave. The number above each group is that latest figure.

Trailing twelve-month revenue to June 2026, and the shape across the seven bars:

Eliquis, Bristol Myers Squibb, 15.8 billion dollars, up from 13.3, the largest increase in the chart in dollar terms.
Opdivo, Bristol Myers Squibb, 9.9 billion, flat, peaking at 10.1 and easing back.
Farxiga, AstraZeneca, 8.2 billion, rising to 8.5 and then falling in the last bar.
Tagrisso, AstraZeneca, 7.5 billion, rising steadily from 6.6.
Imfinzi, AstraZeneca, 6.9 billion, the steepest riser among the large ones, up from 4.7.
Ultomiris, AstraZeneca, 5.1 billion, up from 3.9.
Calquence, AstraZeneca, 3.8 billion, up from 3.1.
Orencia, Bristol Myers Squibb, 3.8 billion, almost flat across all seven bars.
Lynparza, AstraZeneca, 3.3 billion, rising to 3.9 and then stepping down.
Enhertu, AstraZeneca, 3.2 billion, up from 2.0, the fastest riser in the chart.
Yervoy, Bristol Myers Squibb, 3.0 billion, up from 2.5.
Symbicort, AstraZeneca, 2.9 billion, flat across every bar.
Reblozyl, Bristol Myers Squibb, 2.6 billion, up from 1.8.
Pomalyst, Bristol Myers Squibb, 2.1 billion, falling every quarter from 3.5.
Revlimid, Bristol Myers Squibb, 2.0 billion, the steepest fall in the chart, from 5.8.
Soliris, AstraZeneca, 1.6 billion, falling from 2.6 as Ultomiris takes its patients.

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· 11d

Hermès and Kering reported a day apart. Hermès H1 2026 revenue +6% cc, Q2 +7% cc, recurring operating margin 41.0% 🥇 Kering H1 2026 revenue +1% comparable, Q2 +2%, first positive quarter since Q2 2023, margin 12.8% 🥈 🇫🇷 $RMS 🇫🇷 $KER midgardfinance.com/companies/RMS.PA/ #stocks #luxury

Line chart on a dark background titled "Hermès keeps compounding while Kering claws back from a two-year slide." The y-axis is labeled "Quarterly revenue growth, YoY (%)" and runs from about -20 to +32, with a thin horizontal line at zero. The x-axis lists 13 quarters left to right, Q2 2023 through Q2 2026. Two lines span the full range: a blue line for Hermès, marked "Hermès, constant FX" in the legend, and an orange line for Kering, marked "Kering, comparable," with the gap between the two lines lightly shaded. Hermès values by quarter: +28% Q2 2023, +16% Q3 2023, +18% Q4 2023, +17% Q1 2024, +13% Q2 2024, +11% Q3 2024, +18% Q4 2024, +7% Q1 2025, +9% Q2 2025, +10% Q3 2025, +10% Q4 2025, +6% Q1 2026, +7% Q2 2026, positive every quarter shown. Kering values by quarter: +3% Q2 2023, then ten straight negative quarters, -9% Q3 2023, -4% Q4 2023, -10% Q1 2024, -11% Q2 2024, -16% Q3 2024 (the low point of the series), -12% Q4 2024, -14% Q1 2025, -15% Q2 2025, -5% Q3 2025, -3% Q4 2025, a flat quarter in Q1 2026 that Kering itself called "stable" and which is labeled that way rather than as a signed value, then back to positive at +2% in Q2 2026. Across all 13 quarters the blue Hermès line stays above the orange Kering line and the shaded gap between them never closes. The footer reads midgardfinance.com in small grey text in the bottom-right corner.

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· 11d

Four Swedish board members bought stock on the open market in ten weeks. 🇸🇪 $HM.B chair Karl-Johan Persson EUR94.3M 🇸🇪 $VOLV Helena Stjernholm EUR68.6M 🇸🇪 $SHBA vice chair Fredrik Lundberg EUR50.3M 🇸🇪 $SAND Claes Boustedt EUR30.7M midgardfinance.com/insider/ #stocks #europe #sweden #insider

Horizontal ranked bar chart titled "Sweden's boardroom is buying: four blue chips, EUR244M, ten weeks." The x-axis is labeled "Open-market purchases, EUR millions" and runs from 0 to about 150. Four bars, one per company, ranked from largest at top to smallest at bottom, each labeled with the company name on the y-axis and, at the bar's end, the exact EUR value and the buying board member's name. From top to bottom: H&M, blue bar, EUR94.3 million bought by chairman Karl-Johan Persson across 6 separate tranches. AB Volvo, cyan bar, EUR68.6 million bought by board member Helena Stjernholm across 14 tranches. Handelsbanken, purple bar, EUR50.3 million bought by board member vice chairman Fredrik Lundberg across 3 tranches. Sandvik, green bar, EUR30.7 million bought by board member Claes Boustedt in a single tranche. All purchases are open-market buys by a board member or chairman between 18 May 2026 and 27 July 2026, a ten-week span. Combined, the four buyers spent EUR243.9 million. Footer text reads midgardfinance.com in the bottom right corner.

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· 11d

🇩🇪 $SAP Current cloud backlog hit €22.9bn in Q2 2026, +27% YoY reported, up from +20% YoY in Q1. Cloud revenue rose to €6.3bn, +22% YoY, also accelerating from +19% in Q1. midgardfinance.com/companies/SAP.DE/ #cloud #saas

Grouped bar chart titled 'SAP cloud growth accelerates in Q2 2026' on a dark background. The x-axis has two groups, Q1 2026 and Q2 2026; the y-axis is EUR billion, running from 0 to about 30. Each group holds two bars: a blue bar for current cloud backlog and a violet bar for cloud revenue, with the year-on-year growth rate labelled in cyan just above each bar and the euro value labelled in bold white text just below the growth label. In Q1 2026 the backlog bar reaches 21.9 billion euros, up 20 percent year on year, while the cloud revenue bar reaches 6.0 billion euros, up 19 percent year on year. In Q2 2026 the backlog bar grows to 22.9 billion euros, up 27 percent year on year, and the cloud revenue bar grows to 6.3 billion euros, up 22 percent year on year. Both growth rates step up from Q1 to Q2, showing an acceleration in SAP's cloud backlog and cloud revenue growth. A legend in the upper left corner identifies the two bar colors. The midgardfinance.com watermark sits in the bottom right corner.

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· 11d

ASML has hiked FY2026 sales guidance twice since January 📈📈 Jan 28: EUR34-39bn Apr 15: EUR36-40bn Jul 15: EUR43-45bn Q2 2026: EUR9.3bn sales, 54.0% gross margin. 🇳🇱 $ASML midgardfinance.com/companies/ASML.AS/ #semiconductors #stocks

Horizontal range-bar chart on a dark background titled "ASML's FY2026 sales guidance keeps ratcheting higher." The x-axis is labeled "FY2026 net-sales guidance (EUR bn)" and runs from about 28 to 53. Three bars, one per guidance vintage, are stacked top to bottom in chronological order, each showing the low-high range ASML gave for full-year 2026 net sales, with a white diamond marking the midpoint. Top bar, blue, labeled Jan 28, 2026 (FY2025 results): range EUR34bn to EUR39bn, midpoint EUR36.5bn. Middle bar, cyan, labeled Apr 15, 2026 (Q1 2026 results): range EUR36bn to EUR40bn, midpoint EUR38bn. Bottom bar, green, labeled Jul 15, 2026 (Q2 2026 results): range EUR43bn to EUR45bn, midpoint EUR44bn. Each bar prints its low and high values at the bar ends and its midpoint above the diamond marker. There are no other annotations on the chart. Across the three bars the range both shifts higher and narrows with each vintage, with the July bar the furthest right and the tightest of the three. The chart footer reads midgardfinance.com in small gray text in the bottom-right corner.

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· 13d

☁️ Cloud growth bottomed in 2023 📉📈 Every hyperscaler is accelerating again, and a new entrant is outgrowing all of them 🏆 🇺🇸 $CRWV CoreWeave $2.1B +112% 🇺🇸 $ORCL OCI $5.8B +93% 🇺🇸 $GOOGL Google Cloud $20.0B +63% 🇺🇸 $AMZN AWS $42.2B +37% 🇺🇸 $MSFT Intelligent Cloud $39.3B +32% #cloud #AI

Line chart titled "Cloud revenue growth" on a dark background. The x-axis runs from 2016 to 2026 by quarter; the y-axis is year-on-year revenue growth in percent on a logarithmic scale, marked at 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200 and 400. Seven coloured lines track the big cloud businesses, each labelled at its right end with the latest quarter's revenue and growth rate. Almost every line falls steadily from 2021 into a trough in 2023 and early 2024, then turns up together through 2025 and 2026. CoreWeave, in gold, is far above everything else: it enters at over 400 percent in early 2025, falls steeply as its base grows, and settles at plus 112 percent on 2.1 billion dollars a quarter. Oracle OCI, in red, is the steepest riser among the incumbents, climbing from the mid-50s to plus 93 percent at 5.8 billion. Google Cloud, in green, rises from a low near 22 percent in 2023 to plus 63 percent at 20.0 billion. AWS, in orange, bottoms around 12 percent in 2023 and recovers to plus 37 percent at 42.2 billion, the largest business on the chart. Snowflake, in purple, starts near 120 percent in 2020, decays sharply, and flattens out at plus 33 percent at 1.4 billion. Microsoft Intelligent Cloud, in blue, appears only from 2025 and sits at plus 32 percent at 39.3 billion. Salesforce, in cyan, is the slowest, easing from the mid-20s in 2016 to single digits in 2024 before recovering to plus 13 percent at 11.1 billion.

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· Jun 25

#obesity #tolerability Efficacy vs tolerability. Lower-left = best 🏆 #Retatrutide deepest (−28.3%) ⬇️ #Petrelintide near-placebo disc (4.5%) ⬅️ #Zepbound / #CagriSema optimal ↙️ Filter by mechanism, route, sponsor: midgardfinance.com/obesity 🇩🇰 $NOVO $NVO 🇺🇸 $LLY $AMGN $PFE 🇬🇧 $AZN 🇨🇭 $RO

Dark-background scatter plot titled "Efficacy vs tolerability (lower-left = best)". X-axis: AE-led discontinuation percentage from 0 to about 16%. Y-axis: weight loss at primary endpoint percentage from about -8% to -28%. Each of 15 drugs is one circular marker labeled with drug name, sponsor, development stage, and top dose with dosing frequency. Markers are colored by receptor mechanism: GLP-1 blue, GLP-1+GIP purple, GLP-1+GIP+glucagon red, GLP-1+GIP antagonist orange, GLP-1+glucagon teal, GLP-1+amylin lime, amylin pink. The lower-left corner represents the best trade-off (deep weight loss with low AE-led discontinuation). Drugs, deepest weight loss first: Retatrutide -28.3% with 11.3% discontinuation (Lilly, Ph3); Enicepatide -22.7% / 7.0% (Roche, Ph2); Zepbound -22.5% / 6.2% (Lilly, Approved); CagriSema -20.4% / 5.9% (Novo, Filed); MariTide -19.9% / 14.0% (Amgen, Ph2); UBT251 -19.7% / 4.0% (Novo, Ph2); Wegovy HD -18.7% / 5.4% (Novo, Approved); Eloralintide -16.4% / 7.4% (Lilly, Ph2); Wegovy -14.9% / 7.0% (Novo, Approved); Wegovy pill -13.6% / 6.9% (Novo, Approved); Foundayo -12.4% / 8.0% (Lilly, Approved); Berobenatide -12.3% / 9.3% (Pfizer, Ph2); Cagrilintide -11.8% / 4.0% (Novo, Ph3); Elecoglipron -11.8% / 4.1% (AZN, Ph2); Petrelintide -10.7% / 4.5% (Roche, Ph2). Retatrutide is the efficacy leader; among those shown MariTide and Retatrutide carry the highest AE-led discontinuation (around 11-14%); Zepbound, CagriSema, UBT251 and the newly FDA-approved Wegovy HD (semaglutide 7.2 mg) sit closest to the optimal lower-left. Receptor color legend at lower-right. Generic and molecule names for search: Zepbound is tirzepatide; Wegovy, Wegovy pill and Wegovy HD are semaglutide; CagriSema combines cagrilintide and semaglutide. Footer: midgardfinance.com/obesity.

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· Jun 23

Every obesity drug in one view - 16 weight-loss curves side by side. #Retatrutide −28.3% 🥇 #Enicepatide / #CagriSema / #Zepbound cluster at -22% 🥈 Approved #Wegovy (−14.9%) looks modest vs the future 🥉 Filter by mechanism, route & sponsor: 🔗📊 midgardfinance.com/obesity 🇩🇰 $NOVO $NVO 🇺🇸 $LLY 🇺🇸 $AMGN

Dark-background figure titled "Every obesity drug trajectory (16 drugs, grouped by mechanism)". A 4-column by 4-row grid of mini line charts, one per drug, all sharing the same x-axis (time on treatment in weeks) and y-axis (weight change from baseline in %). Each panel shows the drug name, its sponsor with route and dosing frequency in parentheses, the weight-loss curve over time as a colored line with markers, and the endpoint percentage annotated at the final point. Panels are grouped by receptor mechanism, with the classes ordered most-potent-first (by the single deepest endpoint in each class) and the strongest drug first within each class. Grid order, left to right then top to bottom: Retatrutide -28.3% (Lilly, subQ weekly); UBT251 -19.7% (Novo, subQ weekly); Enicepatide -22.7% (Roche, subQ weekly); Zepbound -22.5% (Lilly, subQ weekly); CagriSema -22.7% (Novo, subQ weekly); Zenagamtide -22.0% (Novo, subQ weekly); MariTide -19.9% (Amgen, subQ monthly); Eloralintide -19.7% (Lilly, subQ weekly); Cagrilintide -10.8% (Novo, subQ weekly); Petrelintide -10.7% (Roche, subQ weekly); Survodutide -16.6% (BI, subQ weekly); Wegovy pill -15.1% (Novo, oral daily); Wegovy -14.9% (Novo, subQ weekly); Foundayo -12.4% (Lilly, oral daily); Berobenatide -12.3% (Pfizer, subQ monthly); Elecoglipron -11.8% (AZN, oral daily). A dashed gray Zepbound reference line is overlaid on every other panel so each drug's gap to the approved market leader is visible at a glance. Lines are color-coded by receptor mechanism: GLP-1 blue, GLP-1+GIP purple, GLP-1+GIP+glucagon red, GLP-1+GIP antagonist orange, GLP-1+glucagon teal, GLP-1+amylin lime, amylin pink. Legend below the grid. Generic and molecule names for search: Zepbound is tirzepatide; Wegovy and Wegovy pill are semaglutide; CagriSema combines cagrilintide and semaglutide. Footer: midgardfinance.com/obesity.

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· Jun 19

🇪🇺 "Europe under-invests in R&D" is mostly a sector myth. Sector by sector, European firms are level with US peers, and in software ahead (R&D % of revenue): 💻 Software 🇩🇪 $SAP 18% vs US 13% 🔬 Semis 🇳🇱 $ASML ~16% vs 15% 💊 Pharma 🇫🇷 $SAN 🇩🇰 $NOVO 16% vs 18% #stocks #Europe #EU27

Four small line charts on a dark background, titled "R&D intensity within each sector: Europe vs US". Each panel plots revenue-weighted R&D as % of revenue from 2006 to 2025 for a European basket (cyan) and a US basket (purple) of large caps in that sector.

Semiconductors: the two lines track each other closely, ending Europe ~16% (ASML, Infineon, STMicro) vs US ~15% (Nvidia, Intel, Qualcomm, TI, AMD, Micron, Applied Materials, Broadcom).

Pharma: close throughout, ending Europe ~16% (Sanofi, Novo Nordisk, Bayer) vs US ~18% (Lilly, Merck, Pfizer, J&J, Bristol Myers, AbbVie, Amgen).

Software: Europe (SAP) ends higher at ~18% vs the US ~13% (Microsoft, Oracle, Adobe, Salesforce).

Autos: essentially identical and low, both ~5% (Europe: VW, Mercedes, BMW; US: Tesla, GM, Ford).

The takeaway: within matched sectors European firms invest as much or more, so the headline aggregate gap is a sector-mix effect. Footer reads "midgardfinance.com".

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· Jun 19

Which European companies out-invest everyone else on R&D? (% of revenue) 🇫🇮 $NOKIA 23% 🇸🇪 $ERIC 20% 🇩🇪 $SAP 18% 🇫🇷 $SAN 18% 🇩🇰 $NOVO 17% 🇳🇱 $ASML 14% Telecoms, pharma and chips lead Europe's research spend. On this measure all six out-invest Microsoft, Apple and Nvidia. #stocks #Europe

Horizontal cyan bar chart on a dark background titled "EU27: who spends most on R&D". The x-axis is research & development spending as a percentage of revenue, from 0 to about 25%. Thirteen EU27 large-cap companies are shown, largest at the top, each labelled with its country:

Nokia (Finland) 23%, Ericsson (Sweden) 20%, SAP (Germany) 18%, Sanofi (France) 18%, Aumovio (Germany) 17%, STMicro (Netherlands) 17%, Novo Nordisk (Denmark) 17%, Infineon (Germany) 16%, ASML (Netherlands) 14%, Bayer (Germany) 13%, Merck KGaA (Germany) 11%, Valeo (France) 11% and Philips (Netherlands) 10%.

Telecom-equipment makers, pharma and semiconductor names dominate Europe's R&D intensity. Footer reads "midgardfinance.com".

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· Jun 17

Companies are buying back their software stock. Are the insiders buying too? Mostly no - they overwhelmingly sell. Only two CEOs wrote small million dollar cheques in 2026 🤷‍♀️ 🇺🇸 $PANW CEO: $10M (Mar $146.87 📈) 🇺🇸 $NOW CEO: $3M (Feb $104.60 📉) Everyone else: small director buys 🥱 #SaaS #SaaSocalypse

Horizontal cyan bar chart on a dark background titled "Software: whose insiders are actually buying". The x-axis is total insider open-market purchases (SEC Form 4, transaction code P) in 2026 year-to-date, in US dollars, from 0 to about 12 million. Seven US pure-software companies whose insiders bought more than $0.5M are shown, largest at the top, each bar labelled with the dollar amount and the role behind the largest buy:

Palo Alto Networks $10.0M (CEO), ServiceNow $3.0M (CEO), Microsoft $2.0M (director), Salesforce $1.0M (director), Autodesk $0.8M (director), Tyler $0.7M (director) and Intuit $0.5M (director).

Only the two CEO buys are large; the rest are modest director purchases. The amounts are tiny relative to each company's market cap, and most software insiders only sell. Footer reads "midgardfinance.com".

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· Jun 17

Software multiples compressed. So who's buying back the most of the cheaper stock? Net buybacks, last 12 months (% of market cap): 🇺🇸 $FISV 13% 🇺🇸 $WDAY 12% 🇺🇸 $ADBE 11% 🇺🇸 $GDDY 11% 🇪🇸 $AMS 8% 🇺🇸 $CRM 8% #SaaS #SaaSocalypse #stocks

Horizontal cyan bar chart on a dark background titled "Software: the biggest stock buybacks". The x-axis is trailing-12-month net buyback (share repurchases minus issuance) as a percentage of current market cap, from 0 to about 14%. The ten US and European software companies with the highest buyback yields are shown, largest at the top:

Fiserv 13.2%, Workday 12.2%, Adobe 11.1%, GoDaddy 10.9%, Roper 8.3%, Salesforce 7.9%, Amadeus (Spain, shown with a gold label) 7.5%, PTC 7.2%, Akamai 6.5% and Fair Isaac 6.5%. Each ticker is labelled with its country: nine (US) and Amadeus (ES). Footer reads "midgardfinance.com".

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· Jun 17

Software price/sales: 2021 vs now 🇺🇸 $SNOW 110x ➡️ 17x sales A few re-rated UP: 🇺🇸 $PLTR 36x ➡️ 66x, 🇺🇸 $PANW +89% Most fell 60-90% Every European name compressed: 🇩🇪 $SAP -12%, 🇫🇷 $DSY -70%, 🇪🇸 $AMS -74%, 🇩🇪 $TMV -91% #SaaS #stocks

Horizontal arrow chart on a dark background titled "US & European software P/S re-rating: 2021 vs now". The x-axis is price-to-trailing-12-month-sales on a log scale from about 2x to 100x. Each of ~38 large US and European software companies is one horizontal arrow running from its 2021 average price/sales (tail) to its latest 2026 value (head). Pink arrows mark companies whose multiple expanded; teal arrows mark companies whose multiple compressed. Arrow thickness encodes 5-year median revenue growth (thicker = faster).

The vast majority of arrows point left (compressed). Snowflake has the largest move of all, from about 110x sales in 2021 to 17x now (-84%). Only a handful re-rated upward (pink): Palantir 36x to 66x (+81%), Palo Alto +89%, Cadence +30%, DigitalOcean +24%, Oracle +38%, Fair Isaac +24%, Nutanix +6%. Most other names fell 50-90%, including Salesforce, Adobe, ServiceNow, Workday, Intuit, Okta, Zscaler, Unity and Atlassian.

Every European name (SAP, Dassault Systemes, Amadeus, Nemetschek, TeamViewer) compressed, with SAP the mildest at -12% and TeamViewer the steepest at -91%. Footer reads "midgardfinance.com | Source: company filings".

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· Jun 17

Semiconductors are the biggest industry in US tech. Bigger than all software. Bigger than Apple. At ~$10T, that is ~15% of the entire S&P 500. The split happened at ChatGPT (Nov 2022): chips went vertical while software and Apple flattened. 📈 $NVDA $MSFT $AAPL #investing #semiconductors

Line chart of US market cap for three groups, 2015 to 2026, linear scale in trillions of USD: Semiconductors, all Software (infrastructure plus application), and Apple. Semiconductors and Software are full industry totals; Apple is a single company. A dotted vertical line marks the ChatGPT launch in November 2022. Until about 2023 the Semiconductors line is the lowest of the three. After ChatGPT it climbs steeply, crossing above both Apple and all Software, and reaches roughly $10 trillion. All software ends near $6 trillion and Apple near $4 trillion.

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· Jun 14

🚀 SpaceX listed at $1.78T: ~95x sales, yet revenue grows only ~33%/yr. Price/sales vs growth at IPO: 🇺🇸 $SPCX 95x / +33% 🇺🇸 $GOOG 16x / +234% 🇺🇸 $META 28x / +88% 🇺🇸 $AMZN 28x / +2,980% Nobody else paid so much for so little growth. #SpaceX #IPO #Stocks

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· Jun 10

AstraZeneca enters the oral GLP-1 obesity race with SMD Elecoglipron. Phase 3 announced. Top doses: Elecoglipron 75 mg VISTA (P2): -11.8% wk 36 Orforglipron 36 mg ATTAIN-1 (P3): -12.4% wk 72 Semaglutide 50 mg OASIS-1 (P3): -15.1% wk 68 🇬🇧 $AZN 🇺🇸 $LLY 🇩🇰 $NOVO $NVO #GLP1 #Obesity #Elecoglipron

Line chart titled "Oral GLP-1 weight-loss trajectory: elecoglipron, orforglipron, oral semaglutide" with subtitle "All trials in obesity (no T2D). Same color = same molecule. Thick line = top dose." X-axis: time in weeks 0-72. Y-axis: bodyweight change from baseline (%) from -17.5 to +2. Five lines plotted. Elecoglipron 15 mg VISTA (cyan blue, thin line): drops from 0 to -6.5% at week 36, line stops at week 36 (Phase 2 trial endpoint). Elecoglipron 75 mg weekly titration VISTA (cyan blue, thick line): drops from 0 to -11.8% at week 36, line stops at week 36. Orforglipron 12 mg ATTAIN-1 (purple, thin line): drops to trough around -10.2% at week 48, slight regain to -9.3% at week 72. Orforglipron 36 mg ATTAIN-1 (purple, thick line): drops to trough around -13.4% at weeks 48-60, slight regain to -12.4% at week 72. Oral sema 50 mg OASIS-1 (green, thick line, single dose only - OASIS-1 tested only 50 mg vs placebo): drops smoothly to a plateau around -16% from week 52 to week 68. Vertical dotted line at week 36 marks "elec data ends (Phase 2)". Methodology note: all values are efficacy / on-treatment estimands; the companion bar chart shows oral sema as -15.1% which is the published treatment-policy estimand (model-based with Rubin's rules imputation); the curve here plots observed mean change ending at ~-16%; the ~1pp gap is the missing-data handling effect. Intermediate weekly visit values digitized from the published Lancet/NEJM figures with approximately ±0.5pp uncertainty.

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· Jun 8

Obesity Phase 3: efficacy vs tolerability. Tirz + CagriSema: best quadrant. Retatrutide: top efficacy, mid dropouts. Survodutide: alone in high-dropout / mid-efficacy. 🇩🇰 $ZEAL 🇩🇰 $NOVO $NVO 🇺🇸 $LLY #GLP1 #Obesity #BoehringerIngelheim #Survodutide #SYNCHRONIZE1

Scatter plot titled "Obesity Phase 3 landscape: weight loss vs treatment dropouts" with subtitle "Survodutide sits alone in the high-dropout / mid-efficacy quadrant". X-axis: discontinuation due to adverse events (%). Y-axis: weight loss at primary endpoint (%). Six drugs plotted: Survodutide 6 mg SYNCHRONIZE-1 at 19% disc / -16.6% weight (red, outlier), Retatrutide 12 mg TRIUMPH-1 at 11.3% / -28.3%, Tirzepatide 15 mg SURMOUNT-1 at 6.2% / -22.5% (green, best-in-class), CagriSema 2.4/2.4 REDEFINE-1 at 6.0% / -22.7% (green), Orforglipron 36 mg ATTAIN-1 at 10.3% / -11%, Semaglutide 7.2 mg STEP-UP at 3.3% / -20.7%. Quadrant labels show high-efficacy / low-dropouts is best (top-left), high-efficacy / high-dropouts is mid (top-right), low-efficacy / high-dropouts is worst (bottom-right where survodutide sits).

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· Jun 8

BI/Zealand survodutide (SYNCHRONIZE-1, 76 wks): -16.6% weight, -34% visceral fat, -63% liver fat, lean mass preserved. But 19% GI dropouts vs 3-11% peers. Zealand stock price -20% Monday. 🇩🇰 $ZEAL 🇩🇰 $NOVO $NVO 🇺🇸 $LLY #GLP1 #Obesity #BoehringerIngelheim #Survodutide #SYNCHRONIZE1

Horizontal bar chart titled "Survodutide: the tolerability outlier in obesity Phase 3". Treatment discontinuation rate due to adverse events at primary endpoint, ordered top to bottom: Survodutide 6 mg (SYNCHRONIZE-1, BI/Zealand, weekly) 19.0% highlighted in red, gastrointestinal-related only. Retatrutide 12 mg (TRIUMPH-1, Lilly, weekly) 11.3% any adverse event. Orforglipron 36 mg (ATTAIN-1, Lilly, daily oral) 10.3% any AE. Tirzepatide 15 mg (SURMOUNT-1, Lilly, weekly) 6.2% any AE. CagriSema 2.4/2.4 mg (REDEFINE-1, Novo, weekly) 6.0% any AE. Semaglutide 7.2 mg (STEP-UP, Novo, weekly) 3.3% GI-related only. Footnote: AE = any adverse event; GI = gastrointestinal-related only - so survodutide's 19% understates the all-cause discontinuation rate vs peers' 6-11% all-cause numbers.

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· Jun 8

REIMAGINE-2 weight (T2D, n=2,713, 68 wk). CagriSema 1.0/1.0 mg = less total drug than sema 2.4 - still beats it. Week 68: CagriSema 2.4/2.4: -13.7% CagriSema 1.0/1.0: -11.3% Semaglutide 2.4: -9.4% Cagrilintide 2.4: -7.4% Placebo: -2.1% 🇩🇰 $NOVO $NVO #GLP1 #T2D #CagriSema #ADA2026 #REIMAGINE2

Line chart titled "CagriSema beats semaglutide alone in T2D - even at lower total dose". X-axis: week 0 to 68. Y-axis: body weight change from baseline (%). Five arms plotted: CagriSema 2.4/2.4 mg (GLP-1 + amylin combo, n=603, accent blue) ends at -13.7%. CagriSema 1.0/1.0 mg (lower-dose combo, n=595, muted blue, total 2.0 mg active drug - less than sema 2.4) ends at -11.3%. Semaglutide 2.4 mg (Wegovy, n=605, green) ends at -9.4%. Cagrilintide 2.4 mg (amylin alone, n=152, purple) ends at -7.4%. Placebo (n=149, gray) ends at -2.1%. All four active arms track similarly for first 8 weeks. CagriSema 2.4/2.4 diverges sharply by week 16. CagriSema 1.0/1.0 sits clearly above semaglutide 2.4 from week 12 onward despite lower total drug. No arm shows plateau at week 68. Treatment regimen estimand.

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· Jun 8

CagriSema vs semaglutide in T2D - 1st head-to-head 🤜🤛 REIMAGINE-2, n=2,713, 68 weeks: CagriSema 2.4/2.4: -14.2% wt, -1.91 pp HbA1c CagriSema 1.0/1.0: -11.3% wt, -1.78 pp Semaglutide 2.4: -10.2% wt, -1.75 pp Lower-dose combo still wins. 🇩🇰 $NOVO $NVO #GLP1 #T2D #CagriSema #ADA2026 #REIMAGINE2

Two-panel horizontal bar chart titled "CagriSema beats semaglutide alone in T2D - even at lower total dose". Five arms ordered top to bottom: CagriSema 2.4/2.4 mg (GLP-1 + amylin combo, n=603), CagriSema 1.0/1.0 mg (lower-dose combo, n=595, shown in muted blue), Semaglutide 2.4 mg (Wegovy, GLP-1 alone, n=605), Cagrilintide 2.4 mg (amylin alone, n=152), Placebo (n=149). Left panel - body weight change at week 68: -14.2%, -11.3%, -10.2%, -8.4%, -1.5%. Right panel - HbA1c change at week 68: -1.91 pp, -1.78 pp, -1.75 pp, -0.80 pp, +0.09 pp. Note that CagriSema 1.0/1.0 has 2.0 mg total active peptide, less than the 2.4 mg in semaglutide 2.4 alone, yet still produces more weight loss.

midgardfinance.com@midgardfinance· Jun 6

Monthly = supply story too. At maintenance dose, berobenatide needs 125 mg per patient/year. Semaglutide 7.2 mg weekly: 374 mg. Tirzepatide 15 mg weekly: 780 mg. MariTide 140 mg monthly: 1,820 mg. 13 vs 52 injections/year for monthly dosing. $PFE $NVO $LLY $AMGN #GLP1 #Obesity #berobenatide