Chase Million

@millionconcepts

CEO of Million Concepts. Building software and data systems to reduce space mission risk, increase scientific return, and accelerate discovery. Astronomer and planetary scientist. Software engineer. Project manager. Writer. Magician. Dog person.

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Chase Million@millionconcepts· 19d

I'm sure it's a complete coincidence that this also puts the launch attempt after the market closes for the weekend.

Chase Million@millionconcepts· 20d

planetarynews.org/editorials/M...

$MEP status: The Mars Exploration Program has been directed to absorb and manage the Skyfall payload on the Space Reactor-1 (SR-1) demonstration mission within its budget. This will largely be under the Mars Future Missions line, effectively eliminating any new developments/missions until after SR-1/Sky- fall launches. It is also anticipated that the costs for Skyfall will exceed the available funding in that line ($110M), which means that without a budget augmentation in FY27, the chances are quite high that more than one currently operating mission at Mars will be terminated and their funds redirected to supporting Skyfall. FY27 budget status: The President’s budget request for NASA Science looked very much like last year’s, and although members of Congress quickly indicated that request was “DOA”, the House markup is flat (at the FY26 level), with the entire MEP at $300M. This means that a substantial fraction of the MEP’s budget will go to Skyfall. Although launch is slated for late 2028, there are legitimate questions as to whether that is feasible. f that slips to the 2031 opportunity, and the MEP budget is not augmented to cover the added costs of Skyfall over the next several years, the planned program (based on the Mars Fu- ture Plan) is unlikely to make substantial progress. The Senate markup has been delayed, so we have a short window of time to show our support for a budget that enables the MEP program of record to contin- ue alongside Skyfall. That would include a new payload pipeline, the previously-planned activities for the Mars Future Missions line, and support for ongoing extended missions that are still returning excellent science data and helping to ensure we maintain a highly skilled scientific and engineering workforce.$

Chase Million@millionconcepts· 26d

Formerly.

Chase Million@millionconcepts· 27d

Chase Million@millionconcepts· Jul 7

https://pancam.sese.asu.edu/greeley_pan.html

Chase Million@millionconcepts· Jul 2

Thanks. He appears to assume (his word) the launch costs by backing out from the claim that Starlink was "breakeven cash flow," and assuming that launch costs were included in the "cash flow" claim. To his later point, we also now know that SpaceX is drowning in debt. Is this the best evidence?

Chase Million@millionconcepts· Jul 1

Screenshot from IM-1 landing press conference, showing a small model of IM-1 laying on its side, perched atop an even smaller 3D printed model of IM-1.

Chase Million@millionconcepts· Jun 19

I appreciate this honest take. I've spent 25 years looking at pictures of Mars. While they are beautiful and awe-inspiring, part of the takeaway should be that Mars is lifeless and monochrome. You might die of boredom first. There is no planet more beautiful (and alive) than Earth, not even close.

At the time of writing, the total number of Perseverance photos uploaded onto NASA’s website stands at almost one million. I spent a couple of hours going through the gallery, and I hesitate to report that it was hard to feel inspired. Most of the images show empty tracts of sand and rubble beneath a brownish, miasmic sky. Even the Mastcam-Z photos seemed hazy and monochromatic, as if taken through a sepia filter.

Chase Million@millionconcepts· Jun 16

The "Skyfall" mission that nobody asked for, that no SME was consulted about, that has no point except to give the rocket (that nobody asked for) something to do, that can't do substantive science... It is going to eat a huge chunk of the Mars Exploration budget. planetarynews.org/editorials/M...

MEP status: The Mars Exploration Program has been directed to absorb and manage the Skyfall payload
on the Space Reactor-1 (SR-1) demonstration mission within its budget. This will largely be under the
Mars Future Missions line, effectively eliminating any new developments/missions until after SR-1/Sky-
fall launches. It is also anticipated that the costs for Skyfall will exceed the available funding in that line
($110M), which means that without a budget augmentation in FY27, the chances are quite high that more
than one currently operating mission at Mars will be terminated and their funds redirected to supporting
Skyfall.

Chase Million@millionconcepts· Jun 3

Regular reminder that orbital data centers are bullshit. I expect more announcements / pivots like this, as unprofitable companies try to ride the coat tails of the IPOs for SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI to do funding rounds, or just hope that SpaceX will acquire them.

Chase Million@millionconcepts· Jun 1

Professor Daedelus, still in mourning from the loss of son, being forced once again to explain to a politician that we cannot know in advance whether any new discovery---such as "flight"---might some day have economic or military value.

Chase Million@millionconcepts· May 26

I don't think JPL should be separated from Caltech, but it has been threatened periodically throughout the entire existence of the lab. Point of issue has often been the type and extent of defense work allowed, but not always. See e.g. below expert from "Into the Black" by Westwick.

Chase Million@millionconcepts· May 26

It's someone's job to make little models of the spacecraft on a short timeline so that they can sit on the side of the stage. I won't to know who that person is.

Chase Million@millionconcepts· May 26

This is the image of the LO rover that the posted on LinkedIn a few weeks ago.

Chase Million@millionconcepts· May 26

Lunar Outpost is the second LTV provider. The rover design is called Pegasus.

Chase Million@millionconcepts· May 26

Astrolab is the first selection. [I spoke with all three of these companies about their previous designs. These are new designs, though, so I don't know anything about it.] He said that they adapted the FLEX rover architecture. He listed some subs, one of which is Interlune.

Chase Million@millionconcepts· May 26

Map of "notional locations" of Moon base locations.

Chase Million@millionconcepts· May 26

Today they are going to talk about "Ignitition" solicitations. LTV awards will be announced. [I'm waiting for this.] "Phase 1" is now through 2029, with 25 launches and 21 landings and 4 tons of cargo delivered.

Chase Million@millionconcepts· May 26

Lori Glaze speaking now. "Several exciting announcements ahead including new awards and new partnerships." Talking about Artemis. "Stead. Accelerated. And Continuously learning as we prepare to return to the Lunar surface."

Chase Million@millionconcepts· May 26

The hold music has started for NASA's "Moon Base News Conference." I'm going to watch the whole thing anyway, so I might as well keep notes. 🧵

Chase Million@millionconcepts· May 23

Just about every ~15 years, Caltech management of JPL has been challenged. The main point of issue has typically---but not always---been related to the role and amount of defense work. "Into the Black" by Westwick provides a thorough history through 2004. See attached.

The visiting committee also provided Elachi some leverage against NASA,
a way to push back in case NASA, as it had for the Mars missions, made
unreasonable demands.11 JPL’s relation with NASA was further tempered by
Goldin’s resignation in 2002; his replacement, Sean O’Keefe, had a budget and
policy background (albeit also with a stint in the Pentagon) and suggested
the possibility of stability after ten tumultuous years. Goldin, however, had
appreciated the concept of contract operation and the presence of Caltech. In
negotiations over a new contract for JPL in 2003, NASA raised the possibility
of allowing other institutions to compete for the contract, apparently the fi rst
serious consideration of taking JPL from Caltech, at least since the 1960s.
The notion perhaps stemmed from similar suggestions for other federal labs,
including Los Alamos; whatever the motivation, it signaled NASA’s intent
to continue tightening accountability, refl ected in the new contract by more
regulations. The general effect was to tilt the JPL-Caltech-NASA triangle
further toward NASA.

Chase Million@millionconcepts· May 21

According to the procurement timeline released during the "Ignition" event, the LTV selections are supposed to be made by tomorrow.

Chase Million@millionconcepts· May 20

Everyone remember that orbital data centers are complete bullshit, and anybody claiming otherwise is lying. They will never make economic sense. Never. (Also, wtf does the total energy of the sun have to do with anything? This is bullshit intended to confuse non-technical retail investors.)

Chase Million@millionconcepts· May 16

Awards of up to $1.5M to complete some administrative tasks that would be required prerequisites for any normal research proposal. This is a list of things that scientists and universities typically do on spec, i.e. for free, to apply for a ~10-20% chance of getting <30% of this amount of funding.

Chase Million@millionconcepts· May 12

$1.2T to (maybe) intercept 10 missiles. And I suspect that $1.2T is probably 4-10x low. Golden Dome would easily be the largest and most complicated megaproject ever, which means throw everything you think you know about cost and budget estimates directly in the trash. What a scam.

Chase Million@millionconcepts· May 1

https://www.ralphsteadman.com/news/a-very-gonzo-derby/

Chase Million@millionconcepts· Apr 21

NASA has extended the response deadlines for several of the RFIs announced at "Ignition" by two weeks.

1
REQUEST FOR INFORMATION FOR LUNAR SCIENCE AND
TECHNOLOGY PAYLOADS FOR EXPANDED LUNAR LANDING
OPPORTUNITIES
Request for Information
NOTICE: Amendment #1 April 21, 2026: The amendment extends the response date. New
text is bolded and deleted text is struck through. Other than the new response date, there are no
other changes in the text.
Number: NNH26ZDA008L
Release Date: March 24th, 2026
Response Date: May 7th, April 23rd, 2026
Short URL: https://go.nasa.gov/ploadsrfi

Chase Million@millionconcepts· Apr 20

I attended an industry event early this year at which nearly every speaker, one-after-another, declared with confidence that everything in the future will be FFP. The brain parasite that makes everyone think FFP is a magic hammer has cause immeasurable harm and needs to die real soon.

NASA’s choice to use a firm-fixed-price, service-based acquisition strategy for xEVAS aligns with the Agency’s strategic
decision to shift the risk of cost overruns to the contractor, as well as help foster a commercial space economy.
However, in this case, the firm-fixed-price contract approach conflicted with the developmental nature of next-
generation spacesuits, which carry higher levels of technical, financial, and schedule risk. Further, NASA’s attempt to
replicate other space flight service-based acquisitions by “renting” spacewalking services from a provider was risky
because there was no commercial market for spacesuits prior to the xEVAS effort. Moreover, overly burdensome
requirements like requiring offerors to bid on both microgravity and lunar spacesuits further constrained an already
limited pool of applicants that were capable of and interested in developing new suits. In our judgment, while firm-fixed-
price and service-based contracts can be viable options for certain NASA procurements, applying that approach to a
developmental effort like xEVAS introduced its own set of risks to achieving NASA’s goals.

Chase Million@millionconcepts· Apr 20

www.planetary.org/press-releas...

Plot showing the NASA annual budget, with the current proposal being the smallest since pre-Apollo 1961 (inflation adjusted). "Adjusted for inflation, the FY2027 White House budget proposal for NASA would again attempt to provide the smallest budget for the space agency since 1961."

Plot showing the NASA annual science budget, with the current proposal being the smallest since 1984 (inflation adjusted). "In 1984 NASA had a far less ambitious program of scientific exploration. Earth science was not yet a discipline, planetary science was nearly non-existent, and only a handful of missions were in development."

Chase Million@millionconcepts· Apr 12

The previous Decadal report mentioned NEP only once, in a list of other technologies.