Big jobs report on deck tomorrow. Could make or break the Fed's decision to hike or stay put at the September meeting. And determine if mortgage rates head toward 7% or cool off again. Bond yields already playing defense today.

Chase getting aggressive on the discount points. Sheesh.

CNBC has rolled out the little yellow 52-week high banner again. Seen it a lot lately... Mortgage rates, which move in lockstep, will go up today as well. Maybe they should get a special banner when they hit 52-week highs too.

Trump says new Fed chair Kevin Warsh wants LOWER rates, but is hamstrung by a "political board." Meanwhile, we could have the rate cuts he wants and the lower mortgage rates he campaigned on if we simply avoided global conflicts.

This couple EACH had a home w/ a sub-3% mortgage rate. So it was doable to sell and take a new 6% rate on one house. For many others, this isn't even an option. They can't afford to move at today's combo of rates/prices. Even then, giving up not one but TWO sub-3% mortgages makes me shudder.

The 10-year bond yield just hit a new 52-week high this AM. Expect the 30-year fixed mortgage to do so as well today. And now the thought of a dreaded 7-handle is back on the table.

Mortgage rates matched their 2026-highs earlier this week. Soon you're going to hear that mortgage rates are higher than they were a year ago. And then potentially at fresh 52-week highs, which will be anything above 6.75% and not all that hard to break.

The 10-year bond yield has breached 4.60% and the 30-year fixed mortgage could move back to 6.75%. That'd match a war-time high, last seen about two months ago, though it's important to remember a lot is already baked in. So rates might have limited upside risk and more downside potential.

Just when you thought the possibility of a 7% mortgage rate was behind us.

Like Millennials and every generation before them, Gen Z is finding a way to become homeowners. They accounted for 20% of all purchase rate locks in Q2, the largest share on record per ICE. The oldest members of this cohort are now ~29, still well below the mid-30s FTHB age.

I don't remember having this problem in 2008.

Another weak jobs report (and two monthly negative revisions) takes pressure off bond yields and mortgage rates. It also allows tough-talking Warsh to do nothing, just like his predecessor Jerome Powell. Only difference is he can pretend hikes are coming to satisfy the hawks.

The guy (Kevin Warsh) who was hired to save mortgage rates says "prices are too high." The Fed doesn't control mortgage rates, but its Chair can certainly impact bond yields. Goes to show no matter who's in charge, it's tough to get what you want, at least quickly.

Incoming changes to capital requirements will encourage banks to originate and hold mortgages again. This could translate to a 15 to 40-bp drop in pricing (and up to 50 bps) for those with LTVs below 60%. E.g. your 30-year fixed falls from ~6.375% to ~5.99%.

We already have oil prices back at about pre-war levels. So why not bond yields? And by extension mortgage rates? We're about halfway back now and if recent trend continues, could return to a sub-6% 30-year fixed.

Shaping up to be a good day for mortgage rates. Big drop in 10-year bond yields this AM as oil prices fall to pre-war levels. Perhaps the rise from a sub-6% 30-year fixed at end of February to peak of ~6.75% can be unwound over time.

Zillow has launched a new feature that lets home buyers shop by their pre-approval amount. This means buyers shop for a mortgage before shopping for a property. It will further extend Zillow Home Loans' reach as it captures more top of funnel traffic.

We have a peace deal but the 10-year bond yield remains ~50 bps above pre-war levels. Similarly, 30-year fixed mortgage rates remain ~0.625% higher than levels seen in February. Big question is how long it'll take to unwind this move and see a sub-6% rate again. Don't expect it this year tbh.

Counterpoint: At least you have a really cheap housing payment when everything else in the world is surging in price. Could have missed the boat entirely.

With a 20% down payment, total interest exceeds the home price once your 30-year fixed mortgage rate is over 6.4%. With many buyers putting down just 3%, a rate of 5.45% is high enough that interest = the purchase price. Of course, how many homeowners keep their mortgage the full 30 years?

Better/Coinbase have funded "the first Fannie Mae-backed mortgage backed by Bitcoin in the United States." The loan went to "Joe and Amy," a couple in their early 30s who live in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Instead of selling, they pledged BTC as collateral to buy their first home.

One of the nation's largest mortgage lenders has launched an athleisure clothing line. Rate (formerly Guaranteed Rate) has rolled out RateFit, "a wellness-driven lifestyle brand." They were the 7th largest mortgage lender in the country last year. (I'm as baffled as you are).

Oil prices and bond yields (and yes, mortgage rates) jump on news that U.S./Iran talks break down. And now the Strait of Hormuz will be completely blocked apparently. Perhaps the 30-year fixed hasn't peaked yet this year...

I was looking at a mortgage rate chart from Mortgage News Daily and a pattern emerged. Higher highs. We saw mortgage rates jump at the end of February and March on the Iranian conflict getting underway. Then ease in April, rise again in early May, and then fall. What does June hold I wonder?

It's unclear if the recent mortgage rate spike has derailed most home buyers. Some may continue to pursue it, similar to continuing to wait in a long line and not wanting to lose their place b/c they're ever so close. But soon mortgage rates could be higher YoY...

Recessions are one way mortgage rates typically drop b/c of a flight to safety in bonds. But inflation driven by $100+ oil and tons of gov. debt may not allow for the usual drop in yields. This means the core (and perhaps only) path to lower mortgage rates continues to be a Middle East peace deal.

Another new 52-week high for the 10-year bond yield this AM. But the 30-year fixed mortgage is well below its high thanks to a tighter spread. One perk to an otherwise bleak situation. It was as high as 7.08% this past year, per MND, but is instead closer to 6.75% right now.

Fortunately, the 52-week high for the 10-year bond yield took place overnight. And yields are back down to around 4.60% now... But you can see the real danger of mortgage rates moving back toward 7% if something doesn't change.

Turns out the 50-year mortgage was an excellent idea. Nearly three-quarters (74%) of Americans planning to buy their first home in 2026 said they would consider using a 50-year mortgage if available, per a TD survey. Example $400k home purchase, 3% down, 6.75% rate.

Gentle reminder that loan-to-value (LTV) ratios are obscenely low. Homeowners have never been less leveraged.