Jason Smith

@newqueuelure

physicist messing around with economic theory and science fiction; he/him; ALX; was @infotranecon on twitter; gmail and ig are this username bsky DMs open econ: sci fi:

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Jason Smith@newqueuelure· 16h

Post from a different era Was def more Texas in my past lol

A kid with a cowboy hat on a white horse named Salty in Big Bend national park

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· 1d

i tried and yep parody doesn't work

fascist president golfing with the missile launcher guarding him (poorly) replaced by a gundam mech in photoshop

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· 1d

still from star trek iv where spock mind melds with a cetacean

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· 3d

yeah using total LFPR seems like clickbait the double ratio of total LFPR to prime age LFPR doesn't show any major differences in the trend today vs the period since the great recession when the post-war downward trend that paused between 1980 and 2010 restarted

double ratio LFPR to prime age LFPR showing a downward trend from 1950-1980, a flat period from 1980-2010, and a downward trend since 2010 with a similar slope to the earlier downward trend

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· 6d

classic meme consisting of a tweet that says in all caps "you cant just put the fibonacci spiral on top of whatever the fuck you want" that has been screenshot and superimposed with a fibonacci spiral

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· 10d

A speech bubble graphic making it seem like the text “the voice in my head a couple of times per day” is saying the quoted skeet

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· 13d

thought @calculatedrisk.bsky.social had added the noise floor for a second fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1XMzd

Log Graph of weekly Initial claims rate data (FRED ICSA over CLF16OV) from 2000 to the most recent data on 30 July 2026 with that data generally falling between two red lines indicating a hypothetical noise floor where random fluctuations dominate any macroeconomically meaningful signal.

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· 25d

Oh man this startin to do numbers

Cartoon of a dude looking at a social media screen with like 3 likes on a post with a thought bubble that reads “oh man… this doin numbers”

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· 26d

Basic format of useful Op Eds until conditions change. Replace country as necessary.

Cartoon of a continental US map colored in with a US flag. It has cartoon arms stabbing itself with cartoon knives. It has a cartoon face screaming in agony and probably, but bafflingly, surprise. There’s also cartoon stab wounds and cartoon blood.

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· Jul 13

tbf this might be more specifically a New York journalistic viewpoint

New Yorker magazine cover from the 1970s with a cartoon map of the world looking towards the west with cars and people at 9th Ave but loses all detail by the Hudson River. China, Japan, and Russia are three thin lumps on the horizon.

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· Jul 13

Still from They Live where “Nada” puts on the secret sunglasses and sees the LAPD as aliens and an ad with a “subliminal” message to “consume”.

A still from the lab scene in The Secret of Nimh.

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· Jul 4

More generally it seems the entire mode of the Republican Party is white dudes being Homer Simpson in that scene where he tries to make the dog sit that’s aimed at everyone else.

Still from a Simpsons episode where he just expects to have his power enforced on someone he thinks is beneath his station and gets progressively more angry when his will is not imposed.

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· Jul 3

Found 50 centavos.

A hand holding a golden 50 centavos piece from Argentina above a concrete sidewalk

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· Jul 3

Walking down Yanny Ave.

A stop sign on a tree-lined Manhattan Beach CA street with a sign that says “Yanny Ave”. Some people will read it as “Laurel Ave”. Humans are weird.

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· Jun 28

*shitposting intensifies*

A white lotus cocktail from fishing with dynamite; it has a viridescent cast offset with a small pink flower resting on a large ice cube

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· Jun 27

Me writing an email this morning

Galaxy brain meme
1. Surely there should be a hyphen in penny-ante; it’s just a word
2. It’s a metaphor for the initial stakes in poker so should be a phrase
3. By this point it’s lost any connection with the metaphor so either is fine
4. All words are metaphors. Write penniante.

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· Jun 24

For my little guy it’s carrots; been on a work trip so I’m getting updates like this while he’s staying with family:

Video still of a merle Pomeranian on a pink bed eating a carrot held in his paws giving a wild-eyed look at the camera

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· Jun 21

Been pretty good food adventure thus far

Snow crab claw with yuzu aioli and scallop ceviche served on a bed of ice with a 3/4 finished whiskey smash in the background at Fishing with Dynamite

Steak tartare, crostini, and a cocktail on a marble bar at Coucou

Amberjack crudo also from Fishing with Dynamite which I have now been to twice in the first week I’ve been here

Avocado toast with cucumber & Zaatar from Two Guns coffee shop; sitting at their one table which is outside

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· Jun 21

Pretty good timing of this work trip to LA getting me out of DC for the brewing disaster this 4th looks to be.

Photo from the Manhattan beach pier of the sunset behind the Santa Monica mountains and the beach extending to the north; surfers are waiting for waves in a wine dark sea

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· Jun 16

We’ve all seen the Oxford comma examples, but how about line spacing acting—or in this case, not acting—like a comma?

Sign on the Manhattan beach pier that says “NO” accompanied by a vertical list of four words. The first three words are separated by ~1.5 line spacing; the fourth only ~1.1 which makes the fourth word look like it was wrapped from the edge of margin. It therefore looks like it reads:
NO
Skating
Biking
Scootering dogs

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· Jun 15

hey rental car company, could you give me your smallest car preferably electric? rental car company:

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· Jun 7

tweet from @skullmandible from 2013 that reads “the most cutting thing you can say is ‘who’s this clown?’ because it implies they’re a) a clown & b) not even one of the better-known clowns

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· Jun 7

Corn tortilla chips tossed in salsa with menemen poured over then (soft scrambled eggs cooked with tomatoes, onions, and spices) garnished with avocado and queso fresco

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· Jun 5

wrote a post in February of 2025 where i set a baseline in the dynamic information equilibrium model to see the impact of the election; seems like a serious negative shock

dynamic information equilibrium model of consumer sentiment showing a normal recession (and obama mini-boom) shock structure common to labor market measures (wage growth, JOLTS); after the pandemic in early 2020 there appear to have been a series of negative shocks (2020 Q1, 2021 , 2025 Q1) corresponding to (IMO) the pandemic, inflation, and the election / its aftermath

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· Jun 5

at least up until 2020 the wage growth time series and consumer sentiment time series contain essentially the same information after that it looks like sentiment has a bit more going on; my guess is that it's inflation and the election (and its aftermath) driving sentiment lower

wage growth (blue) and consumer sentiment (red) time series on a log scale with left and right axes; both series are well described by periods of log-linear growth ("dynamic equilibria" in the dynamic information equilibrium model) interrupted by shocks (positive and negative); these shocks in the two series are well correlated up until the pandemic with wage growth shocks lagging sentiment on the down swings and vice versa on the upswings; the "shock structure" of the two series are very different once the pandemic hits in early 2020; the series run parallel prior to 2020 and then diverge from each other after; although negative shocks to wage growth lag sentiment in recessionary shocks that could be the result of lower wage growth workers being more likely to become unemployed leading to a brief over-representation of higher wage growth workers in the data

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· Jun 2

it actually did hit one of the traditional metrics at the time (it was revised later); there were two quarters of negative real gdp growth in 2022 it's just that nber didn't say it was one so it's not

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· Jun 2

at least the ai believes me lol

a google search result for "information equilibrium" that returns an ai overview that says "Information equilibrium is a principle in statistical economics where supply and demand are modeled as an information transfer process. Proposed by physicist/economist Jason Smith, it suggests that prices act as a mechanism to detect information exchange, allowing many traditional macroeconomic models to be derived from a single equation."

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· Jun 2

also hit wage growth fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1WKde

graph of the log of median hourly wage growth from 1983 to the present with periods of log-linear increase interrupted by declines during recessions; the only exception is the most recent decline (of the same log size as the great recession) from 2022 until the present which has not been declared a recession and instead economists are saying "no it's the children who are wrong" and call it a vibecession

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· Jun 2

nah this is the background condition of the vibecession fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1WKdc

FRED graph of the log of the not seasonally adjusted JOLTS job openings rate in blue with approximate log-linear trends in teal for the periods 2003-2007 (interrupted by the 2008 recession) and 2011-2019; the third (post-pandemic) period from mid 2024-present appears to be approaching the same log-linear slope after a major decline from 2022 to 2024 that was not declared a recession unlike every previous decline in this series

Jason Smith@newqueuelure· Jun 1

several years later i went to UW for my phd and there was another broken obelisk on campus