Noam Vogt-Vincent
@nvogtvincent
Associate Professor - Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford. I'm interested in marine dispersal and the oceanic forcing of coral reef systems, past, present, and future. nvogtvincent.co.uk
Yes, it's very cool! I also went to an outdoor museum nearish by dedicated to the fossa magna basin with a major exposed fault. They've done a great job at geotourism here!
Finally, next door is the Fukui Jomon Museum (Jomon was the first human culture in the Japanese archipelago). The two museums do a great job of playing on their synergy, e.g. the Jomon museum shows how C14 dates for its artefacts were refined by the Suigetsu-derived radiocarbon calibration.
Sverduck was also pleased to see some ODV graphics showing how Suigetsu is a meromictic lake. Our undergrads will be analysing similar data next month in Bermuda...
Sverduck came with as well. This has got to be the most scientifically in-depth museum I've visited. They went into real detail into C14 calibrations, millennial-scale climate variability, palaeoenvironment proxies, etc. Despite being so niche, it was pretty busy!
I went to the Fukui Varve Museum at Suigetsu-ko! The centrepiece is a full set of thin sections spanning the 45 m long Suigetsu varve record, which has played a key role in radiocarbon calibration (and therefore recent palaoclimate, archaeology, etc).
Sverduck has made it to Auckland and is ready for his (and my) first #ICRS26!
Moving house. It's important to prioritise. (rock = cross-bedded torridonian sandstone)
Undergrad @oxuniearthsci.bsky.social field trip to Oxford's local coral reef (sadly 150 million years past its heyday)!
I am an extremely unpatriotic person... until the journal starts correcting my British English to US spelling 😭
Very cool poster on plankton outreach through origami by @neilbanas.bsky.social and artist collaborators at #OSM26! Will give this a go when I get home.
Climate change postdoctoral fellowship (JRF, 3Y) opportunity at Oxford! 🌍 Brilliant opportunity for anybody with <2 years postdoc experience by October 2026. Would be great to get coral people - there's a strong cluster of coral reef/climate change people here. 🪸 www.queens.ox.ac.uk/vacancies/ju...
We're advertising a PhD project to investigate the hydrodynamics of Aldabra Atoll @oxuniearthsci.bsky.social! We are looking for a student with strong quantitative skills and interest in ocean modelling. Competitive funding available through ILESLA. Please share with anybody who may be interested!
@oxuniearthsci.bsky.social 2025 Bermuda trip is complete! We were super lucky to see a trichodesmium bloom in the Sargasso Sea and sampled an anoxic layer in Harrington Sound (usually fully mixed at this time). Bermuda is a perfect location to bridge modern and paleo ocean-climate processes!
Geology day for the @oxuniearthsci.bsky.social Bermuda trip! Discussed evidence of eustatic sea level change through Bermudan aeolianites, beach rock, palaeosols and palmetto stumps, followed by a cave tour. Students did great despite challenging heat!
Exciting Bermuda Day 3 for our @oxuniearthsci.bsky.social undergrads on board the RV Atlantic Explorer with expert guidance from @stannescollege.bsky.social + Earth Sciences alumna Eloise! Sampling and processing water from down to 3500 m depth in the subtropical Atlantic.
Another great day doing coastal oceanography in Harrington Sound, successfully sampling an anoxic layer at the bottom of Devil's Hole! Tomorrow we'll be on the RV Atlantic Explorer, heading to Hydrostation S...
Our @oxuniearthsci.bsky.social undergraduates on their Bermuda field class! Busy first day doing oceanographic data analysis, looking at fossil dunes from glacial periods, and a snorkel around a modern carbonate factory with some great diploria and gorgonia colonies.
Also consider Session 98: eco-evolutionary responses of reef organisms to anthropogenic climate change with @ecolology.bsky.social and @liamlachs.bsky.social! Super important for future coral reef dynamics, so I'm really looking forward to this session.
#ICRS2026 is now open for abstract submissions! Coral modellers - consider submitting an abstract to our Session 19: modeling coral reef ecosystems across scales. We're hoping to get diverse abstracts spanning a broad range of spatial and temporal scales! 🪸🌊
Interested in doing a PhD in environmental research at Oxford? We offer fully-funded positions through ILESLA, now open for applications at iles.web.ox.ac.uk! Happy to discuss applications with students whose interests align with modelling marine dispersal or oceanic forcing of coral reefs.
Thank you also to my excellent co-authors, Lisa McManus, @chrisecornwall.bsky.social, and Jamie Pringle, and most of the reviewers for this paper! We're looking forward to expanding this study in future work. (16/16)
This research was carried out at the Hawai’i Institute of Marine Biology, and was supported by the NOAA Climate & Global Change Program with @ucar-cpaess.bsky.social. This amazing postdoctoral program is currently under serious threat due to US federal funding cuts. (15/16)
In summary, temperate seas will not act as effective refugia for most tropical coral species. Coral reefs will expand polewards, but not within our lifetimes. On the other hand, corals are not doomed, and limiting warming to 2C could give them a much brighter future than previously thought. (14/16)
We are currently seeing shifts in coral community composition towards more stress-tolerant corals. Our model also suggests that this will reverse later this century, favouring fast-growing branching corals in the long term. There is some potential evidence for this in the geological record. (13/16)
Interestingly, our model suggests the bottleneck is *not* dispersal, but the relatively slow population growth rate of tropical corals in marginal conditions. While mean SST is rising, higher latitude locations still have greater temperature variability and less light, limiting growth rate. (12/16)
On the other hand, we predict that significant poleward range expansion takes centuries for most tropical coral species. Given that these corals are already experiencing a catastrophic decline, this is far too slow for the subtropics/temperate seas to act as coral 'refugia'. (11/16)
Our model suggests that tropical coral cover will decline by a further 70% under future emissions in line with current policies, but this decline could be halved under SSP1-2.6 (broadly consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement). (9/16)