Or Tuttnauer

@ortuttnauer

Political Scientist at MZES Uni. Mannheim. Traveler at heart. Father of three. Casual fan of NBA basketball, Marvel, Tolkien.

1,569 Following1,245 Followers1,242 Posts

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Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· May 19

I don’t understand what kind of life event would make me *not* want the oven to heat up as quick as possible and, hence, why is that “quick heat” button in the middle even necessary 🤷🏻‍♂️🤔

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· May 15

And, here is a coefficient plot for Whitten & Palmer's 1999 paper on clarity of responsibility and retrospective voting, Table 4 (link: doi.org/10.1016/S026...

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· May 15

He also has an interesting regression table, which I turned (well, the interesting part of it) to a coefficient plot

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· May 15

Singer 2011 has a table with the "most important issue" question across multiple CSES country surveys. It spans two pages. I asked Claude Code to turn it into a bar chart... Link to paper: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· May 1

Meet Citation Compare: ortutt.github.io/citation-com... Enter an article's link or DOI and get not only its citation number but also see how it compares to all other articles published in the same year and journal. Information based on CrossRef API. Vibe coded by Claude. Hope people find it useful!

A screenshot from the Citation Compare webpage, showing the details for Louwerse et al. 2021

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Apr 25

הא הא הא 🤣 לא.

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Mar 28

Literally demonizing aliens without ever meeting one in person. Par for the course.

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Mar 19

And all who are really unhappy in Finland kill themselves… Though I do know a LOT of unhappy Israelis who haven’t left yet

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Mar 18

Germans around me

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Mar 18

I teach @roycecarroll.bsky.social & Cox's 2012 paper on "Shadowing Ministers" and wanted to show Table 1 as a figure. 2 minutes with Claude Code gave me this. Link to the paper: journals.sagepub.com/share/HINRAU...

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Mar 10

@hadas.bsky.social the mysterious ways of the (non)algorithm...

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Mar 2

@marcdebus.bsky.social and I (2024) echo a claim that building coalitions has become increasingly difficult due to party system fragmentation across western democracies. I wanted to visualise that. Again, Codex to the rescue: Link: doi.org/10.1016/j.el...

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Mar 2

@fortunato.bsky.social has a paper (2019) that greatly influenced my thinking on political compromise. I wanted to show his operationalisation of compromise graphically. Claude gave me this in ~5 minutes: Link: doi.org/10.1017/S000...

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Mar 2

@swegmann.bsky.social has a cool dataset on opposition powers around the world (2022). I wanted a world map to show it. ~10-30 minutes with Codex and done! Link to the paper: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Mar 1

הוא… אומר את זה כמחמאה?

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Jan 26

הגזימו עם האבקת סוכר

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Dec 30

Neujahrsaperol Spritz 🏖️😎

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Nov 20

@existentialcomics.com boy, that escalated quickly

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Oct 31

תמונה להמחשה

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Oct 24

Good stuff right here by @dannychau.bsky.social

Maybe it's quibbling with semantics, but something about the integrity of our game doesn't sit quite right.
Because the game is the game. And the game is incredible. Thursday night served up one of the best opening week double-headers we've seen in a long time: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander emptying the tank in a double-overtime bout against an Indiana Pacers team that refused to have its season defined by its sidelined cornerstone; the timeless experience of watching Steph Curry's late-game heroics from 30-plus feet away from the hoop. Amid all the uncertainty, the basketball was very good. So, no, when we're talking about integrity, we're not talking about a game. It's not the integrity of basketball that is under siege, but the NBA as a platform supporting it.

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Oct 2

Interestingly, voters who believe their preferred formateur (PM candidate) will lose behave similarly to those who are uncertain, acting in what we call "puncher's chance" mentality. Both groups display higher rates of strategic behaviour (shown here relying on 6 🇩🇪 election surveys) 3/4

The effects of formateur uncertainty and preferences on formateur optimization.
Note: Predicted probabilities based on Model 2 in Table 2. Vertical capped lines represent 90% confidence intervals.

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Oct 2

Our cross-national analysis (@cses.bsky.social) shows: when there is uncertainty over which party will lead the next government, voters are more likely to vote for the two largest parties (left figure). This effect diminishes when partisan attachments are especially strong (right figure). 2/4

The effect of the electoral gap on formateur optimization.
Note: Predicted probabilities based on Model 2 in Table 1. Gray bars depict the percentage of cases for each value on the x-axis. Vertical capped lines represent 95% confidence intervals.

The marginal effect of formateur uncertainty conditional on thermometer drop.
Note: Marginal effects based on Model 3 in Table 1. Gray bars depict the percentage of cases for each value on the x-axis. Vertical capped lines represent 95% confidence intervals.

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Aug 11

The Israeli #polisci association just issued a statement opposing the government's plan to continue the conquest of Gaza, calling for an immediate negotiation for a permanent ceasefire. Main points (my summary):

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Jul 28

5 Israeli universit heads in a letter to PM Netanyahu calling him to ״to instruct the IDF [...] to intensify their efforts [...] to resolve the terrible famine in Gaza, which is causing immense suffering to innocent people, including children and infants.״ Full translated text in Alt

We, the presidents of five universities, appeal to you to instruct the IDF and other security forces to intensify their efforts, regardless of the heavy responsibility of Hamas and other actors, to resolve the terrible famine in Gaza, which is causing immense suffering to innocent people, including children and infants.
Together with a growing number of the country's residents, we are watching in horror the images coming from the Gaza Strip, including those of babies dying every day from hunger and disease. The release of the hostages and minimizing harm to our soldiers are paramount goals, but as a people who were victims of the terrible Holocaust in Europe, we also have a special duty to act with all means at our disposal to prevent and avoid cruel and indiscriminate harm to innocent men, women, and children.
We are appalled by statements made by ministers and members of the Knesset encouraging the deliberate destruction of the Gaza Strip and the expulsion of its civilian population. We expect a clear and unequivocal condemnation from you and from the government of these harsh statements, which are clearly an immoral call for acts that, according to senior legal experts in Israel and around the world, constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity. The deliberate destruction and the plan to create a “humanitarian city” express a loss of restraint and humanity from which we cannot recover, and cause irreparable damage.
we expect you to take action.

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Jul 3

… we visited every time we were in Israel and he always seemed happy to see us, but equally happy to go back home (to the AC), which is a good thing. He coupled athleticism with longevity, and died at 14, tonight. He was always afraid of vets, so it’s good that he died in his sleep, on his couch ❤️

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Jul 3

Bali wasn’t my 1st dog, but he was my children’s older brother. He was a superdog, beautiful and mega-athletic. He was a gentle giant, great with kids - family & strangers, and playful with other dogs. Life (the move to Germany) made it so he spent the last 7 years in another home…

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Jun 28

In 1/2 an hour at #epsa2025, I’ll explain @lwarode.bsky.social and my approach to measuring divergence in gov-opp relations measurement based on parliamentary votes and speeches. The panel’s hidden at -1.A.05, so I hope you’ll find your way there (as will I)

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Jun 25

So, Lufthansa, you’re telling me I can cooperate and for sure lose at least 30 mins waiting for my luggage, OR not cooperate, and *maybe* lose ~10 mins while you put others’ luggage into the hold? Nah, pass.

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Jun 23

I’m not joking people. Just bought a nice pair of sandals and I’m going to use ‘em at #epsa2025!

Or Tuttnauer@ortuttnauer· Jun 19

לפחות הפעם הוא זכר את השם שלו