Omar Wasow
@owasow
Asst Prof, Berkeley, Political Science: 1/ Agenda Seeding 2/ Race as a Bundle of Sticks 3/ Text as Behavior 4/ Plutopopulism
Does protesting authoritarianism alienate moderates? New working paper on 1960s West German student movement suggests protest was associated with modest *increase* in support for the center left, potentially by reshaping perceptions of the far right. osf.io/preprints/so...
“This is Leonardo da Vinci's ‘Vitruvian Man,’ the ideal proportions, with arm span equal to height. My arm span is exactly equal to my height. Yours probably, too. But not the average NBA player. The average NBA player is a shade under 6'7", with arms that are 7 feet long.” youtu.be/8COaMKbNrX0?...
Bezos circa 2011, Bezos 2026. Not remotely the most important factor but I wonder how that kind of physiological transformation might contribute to attitudinal transformation.
My car got towed yesterday for allegedly expired registration. Towing fees $720 + $180 per day (!) in private lot. Turned out registration was *not* expired and Sheriff’s office waived fees. So, I’m not out $900 but still grumpy. Who in government is getting paid-off to allow $180 per day lot fees?
I’m trying to recover data from an old hard drive that’s corrupted and it’s a funny walk down memory lane. Stumbled on an old 2004 clip of an absurd segment on the Today Show about what life would be like in 2024.
Noteworthy: even controlling for perceived race—how Florida Highway Patrol officers classified voters in traffic stops—partisan effects on reidentification persist in both directions. Two people perceived the same way still make different identity choices by party. HT @mattgrossmann.bsky.social
New paper by Donahue & Reich, forthcoming in AJS. Using 18 years of Florida voter records, they find Republicans significantly more likely than Democrats to shift Hispanic→White. Democrats more likely to shift White→Hispanic. 1/ www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10.... HT @mattgrossmann.bsky.social
Years ago, went on Colbert Report to discuss “Cyberwar!” Between takes, they played Neutral Milk Hotel’s “Holland, 1945,” about Anne Frank. Backstage, I asked why. Colbert answered: “So I never forget how cruel the world can be.”
Whoa, now intrigued to read the political philosophy of Professor X. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Profess...
I read it differently. Not so much a decrease in navel gazing as a shift in orientation from the past to the future, and from the narrow to the vast unknown. On NYC (having grown up there), I’d say it can be marvelously and terribly self-important. The classic New Yorker cover captures it well.
I now realize “game” here is ambiguous. What I meant was that it would be hard for subjects to guess what was being measured (what I called metric opacity) or the study's purpose (hypothesis opacity).
Random but true story: I have a credit on this film. www.imdb.com/title/tt0113...
Paper started long before rise of LLMs and so doesn't fully grapple with implications. In Discussion, mention things like keystroke tracking to detect writing vs copy / paste (done via javascript in one study) but Westwood's recent paper mimics that, too. Transcribed speech seems to work, too.
Does text as behavior work across languages? Using Afrobarometer data from 36 African countries: people who score higher on a 10-question pro-democracy battery write more when asked ‘what democracy means to you?’ Similar positive slopes in English, French and Portuguese. cup.org/4cUmoXi 8/
Does treating text as behavior map to meaningful real world outcomes? I find verbosity on four “most important problem” questions—what I call Expressive Engagement—predicts validated turnout (confirmed against voter files). ~16 pp higher in ’16 and ~18 pp in ’20. cup.org/4cUmoXi 7/
The mirror image: Democrats whose writing aligns toward Trump look like MAGA Republicans in their support for him, a ~59 pp shift. Again, controlling for party ID, ideology, feeling thermometers and other covariates. Predictions from 2016 hold through ‘20 and ‘24. cup.org/4cUmoXi 6/
How much you write for and against candidates—what I call “Expressive Alignment”—significantly improves prediction of who you say you’ll vote for. Republicans whose writing aligns toward Clinton are indistinguishable from Democrats in support for her, a ~40 pp shift. cup.org/4cUmoXi 5/
2016 ANES asks “is there anything about Clinton/Trump that would make you vote for/against them?” More blank responses = significant declines in support, even after controlling for feeling thermometers, ideology and party ID. Nonresponse captures affect beyond standard measures. cup.org/4cUmoXi 4/
“Writing is hard.” Thrilled to share that this simple idea led to a new paper in Political Analysis! Where most text methods focus on content, I test if expression is also effortful action. I find simple measures like character counts reveal attitudes and predict voting. cup.org/4cUmoXi 1/
Good point that in many places, like Georgia, the coalitions will be multiracial. In VRA-covered states in South like Mississippi and Alabama, though, biracial coalition is a reasonable approximation of the local demographics.
When my father went to Columbus, Mississippi in 1964, his family feared for his life. Next week, when he goes back with family, he will be celebrated.
“Hebrew was not a natural choice of a common language… Since Zionists viewed Yiddish as the main threat, Israeli regulations made it illegal to establish a Yiddish theatre, publish a daily in the Yiddish language, establish Yiddish schools…” www.gw.uni-jena.de/phifakmedia/...
“The U.S. is increasingly governed by minority rule…” www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
On a more positive note, coming full circle, next week my father, aged 82 (!) will return to Columbus, Mississippi to be honored along with other Freedom Summer volunteers in an Eighth of May Emancipation Celebration. themsms.org/8th-of-may-e...
In 1964, when my father was 20 years old, he went to Mississippi to register voters as part of Freedom Summer. NPR interviewed us in 2021: www.npr.org/2021/07/14/1...
“The word most commonly selected by respondents as applying to President Donald Trump was ‘dangerous,’ which 52 percent of respondents said described Trump…” blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/soft-measu...