Pascal
@pascallth
Political analyst Right makes might Substack:
Longer than usual, so here is the conclusion pascallth.substack.com/p/ceuta-and-...
Kostyantynivka is one of the 'fortress cities' in free Donbas It is still highly contested, but Russia has increased its control over the course of the year, even if you discount the infiltration areas The direction of travel here is not positive
Although the justification for the AfD's outrage is incredibly spurious - Nord Stream had already long stopped supplying gas to Germany because the *Russians* had cut off the supply
To be clear, Ukraine still wouldn't have an easy route to move in and liberate it, but it would weaken the Russian position in the south by robbing them of depth and support (which is what the strikes are aiming to do)
This is just media training - not wanting to rock the boat or upset anyone Put your hands up anyone who believes the CBI would not support rejoining the EU in an actual referendum
Really this chart just suggests that reversing Brexit is the one policy that is both highly impactful and tangible, with a known route to delivery
Criticism of international assistance to Russia but won't even name their biggest backer - China
Nice to see this issue called out, but when the leadership of international sports and culture organisations ignore you (as some already have), what will you actually do about it?
Contrary to the opening here, no one has provided evidence of a will to produce credible security guarantees for Ukraine A few thousand troops in the west of the country or the occasional air patrol won't cut it
Borders must not be changed by force? The aggressor cannot be rewarded? Okay so where's your plan to liberate the remaining 20% of Ukraine under occupation? Because right now borders have been changed by force and a ceasefire won't fix that
We cannot forget that Putin will be destroying the lives of ordinary Ukrainians even after the war, so long as a fifth of the country remains under occupation
To the point of Healey was doing well - quite a long message of support from the Italian defence minister here
As I also wrote in my blog a couple weeks ago pascallth.substack.com/p/europe-nee...
And this is exactly the danger for a European force trying to defend against a Russian attack
Key conclusion being this - these conversations are obscuring more than enlightening, distracting (deliberately or otherwise) from the debate on whether this is something we actually can agree we want to do in the first place
And we're still doing this If the EU lets its choice of envoy be dictated by Russia then the talks will be over before they've started When Russia accepts talking to anyone, that's when we'll know they're serious - until then, it's more playing games
Some people are visual learners, so here's a helpful graphic for why Labour are now talking about Europe
Here is the key point - the more you give Russia, the more they'll try to take
A consequence of the decline of the two-party duopoly is also a weakening of British unionism It's not a banner Reform can pick up - being too polarising or unpopular in Wales and Scotland - meaning their wins do not help (The UK is turning into a cloudy Spain - a running series)
Forget the silly marches in Moscow, it's Europe Day today Britain and Ukraine may be on opposite sides of our continent but we are as close as two nations can be in spirit I look forward to the future UKraine accession to the EU