Peter Thal Larsen

@petertl

Global Editor, Reuters Breakingviews. Usual disclaimers apply. My free weekly newsletter:

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Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· 22d

that's true. But there's a market signal in CEOs and leather jackets...

Orange CEO Hans Snook selling to France Telecom

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· 22d

🔊New episode of The Big View 🎧: Back in 2006, Nick Stern laid out the economic case for combating climate change. Twenty years on, he explains why the logic for investing in green technologies is more compelling - and where the "degrowth" movement gets it wrong. www.youtube.com/watch?v=savW...

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· 23d

Remember what happened the last time Britain had a chancellor called Healey...

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· 24d

Argentina have a World Cup Final record that will never be surpassed: zero shots in 90 minutes.

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· 25d

Retail investors are a growing force in financial markets around the world. Is their timing better than it has been in the past? www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons...

The stakes are high. A reversal of the artificial intelligence boom would hurt equity and debt markets around the world. (See Causes of correlation.) It would also dent American wealth: equities now account for 46% of household assets C, according to the Federal Reserve. At the peak of the dotcom boom in 2000 the figure was 39%.
SpaceX buyers who this week watched their stock dip below the IPO price may feel some regret. A broader selloff could repeat the painful lessons from past stock market bubbles: small speculators tend to get sucked in during the boom, lose their shirts in the bust, and then retreat. The proportion of German households investing in stocks more than doubled to 20% of the population between 1997 and 2001 before falling back. That ratio is once again approaching its previous peak. Will retail investors fare better this time? Somehow, I doubt it.

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· 26d

Wall Street Journal dusts off its "troubled emerging market" template for Andy Burnham. www.wsj.com/world/uk/the...

The U.K. Gets Another New Leader on Monday. His First Task: Reassure the Markets.
The former mayor of Manchester’s entry into Downing Street will mark the climax of a steep ascent for a politician who until last month wasn’t even a member of parliament.

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· 27d

Wondering once again why anyone with a brain takes the other side of these bets. abcnews.com/US/white-hou...

In certain instances, investigators uncovered times when Perez would back out of certain bets mid-speech when Trump skipped over a portion of the speech that included a word he had previously bet would be mentioned, the sources said.

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· 28d

Deleted this because Rotork is not in the FTSE 100. My bad.

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· 28d

Not a fan of xG stats but this sums it up

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· 28d

Thank you for playing the SpaceX

Chart of SpaceX’s share price on July 15

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· 29d

IBM got clobbered by AI chipflation. newsroom.ibm.com/2026-07-14-A...

this quarter. What played out was worse than our expectations, driven by a shortfall in our Z pertormance and the associated sotware stack, primarily in Transaction Processing. In the last few weeks of June, we saw clients shift their quarterly capex spend toward servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases. This dynamic impacted client buying patterns. While we anticipated some supply chain related impact in our expectations, we did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritization. In addition, clients were distracted with rapidly-evolving, industry-wide cybersecurity concerns in the quarter.
These conditions require our teams to execute pertectly, and this quarter we taltered. We did not adapt and move quickly enough, and numerous large deals failed to close on the timelines we expected, driving the majority of our shortfall.

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· Jul 14

🔊New episode of The Big View🎧: Every CFO I meet is grappling with the costs of AI spending. So I asked Yuval Atsmon, McKinsey's finance chief, how the consulting firm handles the challenge - and what advice he gives clients. Watch here or search for "The Big View": www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ggI...

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· Jul 10

The latest Week in Breakingviews is on its way to the virtual printers. Featuring: * investors seeking shelter from the AI trade * Japan’s missing migrants * A gambling Tobin tax * Other highlights from @breakingviews.reuters.com In your inbox Saturday. Sign up: www.reuters.com/newsletters/...

Five things I learned from Breakingviews this week
1. The effective oil supply shortfall caused by the Hormuz crisis was just 3 million barrels per day.
(Iran's leverage is limited)
2. European investors concluded bank debt was less risky after Credit Suisse was rescued.
(Failed the bail-in test)
3. Temasek's Singaporean holdings earned roughly the same 10-year return as the sovereign wealth fund's global investments.
(More transparency required)
4. The combination of Sky and ITV would control
70% of UK television advertising. (If regulators allow)
5. Venezuela's GDP is down 68% from its 2012
peak. (Creditors may be overoptimistic)

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· Jul 9

So if the Big Tech companies are expected to earn more revenue while becoming more efficient, then it follows they should generate more cash, right? Sure enough, combined free cash flow is projected to reach $660bln by 2030, three times what they earned in 2023. (5/7)

A line chart of projected free cash flow for Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· Jul 9

Despite all that investment, the Big Tech quintet is projected to remain very profitable. How so? Simple! Analysts expect them to become much more efficient. To show this, I deducted projected depreciation from total expenses and divided it by revenue. For all five companies, the ratio falls. (4/7)

A line chart showing projected non-depreciation expenses as a percentage of revenue for Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· Jul 9

Analysts think these investments will quickly pay dividends. Revenue at Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle is projected to more than double between 2025 and 2030. This is astonishing growth for some of the world’s biggest companies. (3/7)

A line chart of projected revenue for Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· Jul 9

As we know, Big Tech is throwing vast sums at data centres, AI chips, and energy. The five firms are projected to collectively invest $4.8 trln by 2030. Capex will exceed 50% of combined revenue next year. This feeds through into higher depreciation charges. (2/7)

A line chart of forecast capex and depreciation & amortisation as a percentage of combined sales for Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· Jul 9

Who will win Big Tech’s AI cage fight? I spent some time poking around analysts’ forecasts for the data centre hyperscalers: Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft and Oracle. The forecasters seem to think everyone will be successful. Here's why that seems a stretch. (1/7)

Figurines with computers and smartphones are seen in front of the words "Artificial Intelligence AI" in this illustration taken, February 19, 2024. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· Jul 8

Well there's a comparison I haven't seen before.

Fiona Hill, Trump’s top Russia adviser in his first term and now a co-author of the British report, was skeptical about Washington’s staying power. She shared her thoughts with Carney, who had served with her on Harvard’s Board of Overseers. Trump, argued Hill, was America’s answer to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, weakening a superpower he meant to strengthen. She failed to move Starmer’s team, who put the report through months of edits to reaffirm the importance of U.S. ties.

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· Jul 8

The brand extensions are out of control

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· Jul 7

Pausa de hidratación

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· Jul 7

🔊New episode of The Big View🎧: Saint-Gobain was set up in 1665 to break Venice's chokehold on mirrors. So the French giant is used to navigating geopolitics. I talked to CEO Benoit Bazin about being "local" in 80 countries, sustainable construction, and much more. podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/h...

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· Jun 29

Brian Roberts, 2009: "This deal is a perfect fit for Comcast" Brian Roberts, 2026: "This is a very exciting day for our company." corporate.comcast.com/news-informa... corporate.comcast.com/press/releas...

Brian L. Roberts, Chairman and Co-Chief Executive Officer of Comcast Corporation, said:

“This is a very exciting day for our company. The transaction we are announcing will unlock a more entrepreneurial management approach and open up a multitude of new opportunities for each business. I very much look forward to helping guide our collective growth for this next chapter.

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· Jun 29

One of the dubious pleasures of covering business for a really long time is to watch companies which merged with great fanfare almost two decades ago announce plans to break themselves up as if it's the most logical decision ever. corporate.comcast.com/press/releas...

Comcast Announces Plans to Separate Media and Technology Businesses into Two Leading Public Companies

Key Takeaways
Creation of independent Comcast and NBCUniversal positions both companies for enhanced strategic focus, agility and value creation.
NBCUniversal is a premier global media and entertainment company anchored by leading theme park, film, television and streaming assets.
Tax-free spin-off of media businesses expected to be completed in approximately one year.

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· Jun 29

BT literally did this with AT&T in 1998. Lasted three years.

BT, Verizon join forces to create $4 billion international joint venture
By Reuters
June 29, 20267:03 AM GMT+1Updated 39 mins ago

June 29 (Reuters) - BT (BT.L), opens new tab and Verizon (VZ.N), opens new tab on Monday announced a deal to combine their international enterprise operations ‌into a 50:50 joint venture, focussing on serving multinational clients and bringing together $4 billion in combined annual revenue.
Verizon has agreed to pay BT an equalisation payment of $625 million, and both ⁠companies will hold equal voting rights in the new venture, which will serve more than 3,000 customers in over 180 countries.

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· Jun 26

“Maybe I’ll beat the heat by taking an Uber, it’s only 5 miles how much can it be…..oh”

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· Jun 25

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· Jun 23

Hydration break in Boston

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· Jun 23

A glimpse inside the soulless Dream Factories of the future www.reuters.com/commentary/b... by @jensaba.bsky.social

Once AI worms its way into special effects and beyond, it will be hard to stop. The fully AI-generated movie "Hell Grind" may only appeal to a small audience: its three-minute trailer, opens new tab is a compendium of clichés. Other initiatives are gaining credibility, though. "The House of David," a TV series on Amazon, openly touts, opens new tab its use of AI. Filmmaker Doug Liman is incorporating it, opens new tab into his movie “Bitcoin,” which will feature “versions” of tech bosses Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg while slashing production costs by roughly 65%, trade publication Deadline Hollywood reported.

Peter Thal Larsen@petertl· Jun 23

🔊New episode of The Big View🎧: Is Elon Musk a one-off or a harbinger of a new form of capitalism? I talked to @quinnslobodian.com, co-author of "Muskism: A Guide for the Perplexed" about the SpaceX boss's relentless rise. Listen here podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/d... or watch on Spotify/YouTube.