For UK audiences. *To Run the World* is now available in paperback (as of last week), and can be purchased here: www.amazon.co.uk/Run-World-Kr.... Priced at £14.99, so never cheaper! Your leisurely beach reaching as the summer arrives.

Damn. I got a medal from the Council on Foreign Relations, which is super exciting.

On BBC this morning, with Catherine Barnard (Cambridge), and our wonderful host Julian Worricker. Talking about politics, sports, literature, art, and love.

This is just gold.

Honored to interview President Yushchenko for my forthcoming book on the Russia-Ukraine war. It's important to understand the historical context of the Russian invasion. If we start in 2022, we risk missing out on the essential.

Together with my brilliant RA Peter Sies (SAIS-2024) (R) had a very candid, interesting meeting with Chancellor Olaf Scholz (C). This is all part of my big project on the history of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which will eventually lead to a very big book.

And, as a bonus, here is the final paragraph that didn't make it into the oped for reasons of length.

That's just not the case. Poland narrowly avoided a Soviet invasion in 1956, and again in 1981, when Gen. Jaruzelski spared Moscow the trouble by imposing martial law. But you knew that.

A confidential readout on Yeltsin-Chirac, October 1997. Yeltsin's views on the Baltics, NATO and the EU. A consistent take, actually, throughout this period, but also later, under Putin.

Another encounter between Russian and European leaders; another discussion of NATO and EU enlargement. This here is from Tony Blair's meeting with Chernomyrdin, October 6, 1997. A persistent theme.

Ha, of all places, Alaska. Would never have crossed my mind. Definitely, meant to impress. It's fairly rare to hold summits somewhere that is not a capital city, but it's certainly not unheard of. The Russians have held multiple summits in Siberia (Putin-Kim in Vladivostok or Putin-Mori in Irkutsk).

The last time I read The Twenty Years’ Crisis was 25 years ago. It’s so interesting to come back to it now; unarguably many passages read differently that they sounded in a very different age. More pertinent?

Russia’s then-Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, in a conversation with Tony Blair, July 22, 1999.

open.substack.com/pub/profradc.... An interesting report by the British Ambassador in Moscow Sir Andrew Wood on Russia's outlook. How things looked 25 years ago, at the time of Putin's arrival.

Gotta love the 1960s. (From Lawrence Freedman’s Strategy: a History).

Who would have thought?!

You just gotta love this. From a CIA study.

The word refers to street tricksters who would swindle people out of their money by using three cups and a ball. The term is quite derogatory (i.e. people who try to steal your money using a cheap trick). A very common sight in the 1990s.

Here's the bottom line:

This here by Lawrence Freedman has interesting contemporary resonance.

Every time I hear lamentations about the death of the post-1945 Liberal International Order (at the hands of the Russians and the Chinese), I am reminded of Paul Chamberlin's book, The Cold War's Killing Fields. Here's a useful passage from the book.

A fun story from the Cold War. Incredible to think just how much the US contributed to Soviet economic output and military production.

This is implied in the post, which also discusses whether the previous Istanbul talks were just a time-wasting maneuver on Putin's part. As for the current proposal, here's what I actually argue in the post.

Just to preview the argument.

Thrilled to have To Run the World shortlisted for the 2025 Gelber Prize alongside other great books by Mary Bridges, Steve Coll, Tim Cook, and Benjamin Nathans. The Gelber Prize is awarded for the best book on international affairs published in English.

Meanwhile, on foreign policy specifically. From my own study of Russian policymaking, I should say that the best starting point is to see what policymakers themselves say. Read their speeches, their various pronouncements, understand their historical references, etc.

There is some plausibility to this argument though "asking them" may be more difficult than King is willing to admit because "them" - the Russians - are obviously a very diverse group of people. So who are we going to ask and, even more importantly, what are we going to ask them?

He argues that literature does not really help you understand how a society works, and that if we want to know how the Russians think, we should stop reading Russian classics and, instead "just ask them" [the Russians].https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GjW4WwjW0AAVhw3?format=png&name=large

Part of this here. Oh dear, what a line-up.

Where I disagree with Sikorski is that there exists an “authoritarian axis” of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. My professional opinion (as someone who has studied these relationships for decades now) is that there is basically no such thing.