The Rini
@rinimetrics
Econometric model to predict asset prices. Not investment advice.
Above average performance for the Rini in July. #data #econometrics #economy #finsky #econsky #stocks #investing #trading #gold #silver #bitcoin #technicalanalysis
Below average performance (<75%) for the Rini and OMXS30 in June. Notice that June is one of the bad months for the model (worst is March, then August; July is the third best month). #data #econometrics #economy #finsky #econsky #stocks #investing #trading #gold #silver #bitcoin #technicalanalysis
We are back! Above average performance in May for the Rini! #data #econometrics #economy #finsky #econsky #stocks #investing #trading #gold #silver #bitcoin #technicalanalysis
Below average performance for the Rini in April 2026 due to unanticipated shocks wrt to geopolitics and the price of oil. Fortunately, returns are positive (hit and run trades). #data #econometrics #economy #finsky #econsky #stocks #investing #trading #gold #silver #bitcoin #technicalanalysis
Two similarities we noticed on last year's V and this year's V, both courtesy of Potus: W denotes the bottom (red circle). OMXS30 decreases, stays flat and increases (red square). Thus, today it should stay flat or decrease. Whta is the role of M3? Studying it now.
Only 59% prediction success for the Rini in March. Shocks are bad. Expected after two months of stellar performance, though. Working on predicting shocks. #data #econometrics #economy #finsky #econsky #stocks #investing #trading #gold #silver #bitcoin #technicalanalysis
Compare with OMXS30 for the same time period. The graph paints a completely different picture. #data #econometrics #economy #finsky #econsky #stocks #investing #trading #gold #silver #bitcoin #technicalanalysis
S&P 500 in the graph below. This is a rounded top. Imho, in the absence of positive shocks, it is more likely the index declines. #data #econometrics #economy #finsky #econsky #stocks #investing #trading #gold #silver #bitcoin #technicalanalysis
Stellar performance for the Rini in January-February 2026. Why? Because we have figured out how to predict new ATHs (Rini + M4 condition). We still need to experience a bear market. #data #econometrics #economy #finsky #econsky #stocks #investing #trading #gold #silver #OMXS30 #technicalanalysis
Reached +.61% (3032.10, ATH is 3039.09)! At least we did not trade the bear. It was a clear bull with .99% range! Tomorrow Swedish earnings that might create a shock. #data #econometrics #economy #finsky #econsky #stocks #investing #trading #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #technicalanalysis
The Rini retains its 79% prediction success. December's performance was above average. #data #econometrics #economy #finsky #econsky #stocks #investing #trading #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #technicalanalysis
Some proof: #data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
Updated the Rini Performance Table for November 2025. It is bad. #data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
A bit of proprietary knowledge. In the graph we have converted OMXS30 closing prices and Rini absolute min/max prices into percentages for October/November 2025. Why percentages? #data #econometrics #economy #inflation #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading #Finsky
Look how nicely the daily OMXS30 RSI bounced off the red line, 50, from September onwards, i.e. was serving as support. We have lost that. Also notice the lower highs and lower lows.
Updated the Table. Stellar performance for the Rini in October 2025. #data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
Updated the Rini performance for the last months. #data #econometrics #economy #inflation #unemployment #gold #silver #bitcoin #ethereum #investing #VIX #trading
Screenshot from Atlanta's Fed on Twitter (we can't find them on Bluesky).
Self-explanatory graph. In Stata, you can calculate RSI with command tftools rsi #trading #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #Riksbank #Fed #technicalanalysis #economy $VIX #EconSky #FinSky
OMXS30 closing prices in 2024. Notable negative shocks in August and September with US origin. Minimum on 17.01 (2297.85). Maximum on 26.09 (2642.43). #trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Riksbank #Fed #technicalanalysis #economy
Daily RSI for 2024, OMXS30. Not a bad strategy to sell when it approached 70 and buy when it approached 40. Does not mean it will repeat in 2025. #trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Riksbank #Fed #technicalanalysis #economy $VIX
Updated the graph to include 2024. The prediction based on simple patterns was correct as OMXS30 finished the year with a positive return, namely 3.63%. #trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Riksbank #Fed #technicalanalysis #economy $VIX
Created this graph on 31.12.23. A year ago we predicted that OMXS30 would finish 2024 with a positive return, not knowing if it would be higher or lower than 2023. #trading #econtwitter #econometrics #stocks #investing #bitcoin #gold #inflation #data #fintwit #Fed