My review of Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Plenty of reason to be optimistic about the Patriots' running backs this year and having AJ Brown out wide should help reduce the box counts that both face. Both of them faced an above-average number of box defenders last year, so lowering that will increase their xYBC.

Is yards before contact an offensive line stat? Less than we treat it like one. I took a deep dive on a stat that we may have been reading wrong, using a couple of different modeling techniques to explain why. You can read it FREE on my Substack 🔗⤵️

Coming tomorrow on Hoppen to Conclusions: a deep dive into yards before contact. What influences it? How can teams differentiate themselves? Is it an offensive line stat? Subscribe below to get it sent straight to your inbox!

Taking a look at which wide receivers have had the most diversity in their route deployment and pre-snap alignment over the past two seasons: Data via @sumersports.bsky.social

Rushing scheme diversity doesn't always lead to rushing success, but the Cowboys did a really good job last year of mixing up the concepts they used while having a very solid running game:

Which defenses last year were most likely to let their players line up and play the man across from them: Data via @sumersports.bsky.social

In just under a month we're hosting another Chicago Analytics Social! Come join plenty of us who have Never Played the Game for some drinks while we talk about analytical trends that may take over the NFL in 2026!

How last year's quarterbacks performed in and out of the pocket: Data via @sumersports.bsky.social

Looking at rushing EPA allowed on non-QB carries based on the number of box defenders each defense used. Data via @sumersports.bsky.social

Just got back from an incredible week in Colombia! Learned about the concept of permaculture, toured Medellín’s Comuna 13, ate some delicious meals, enjoyed some stunning views, and so much more! Would highly, highly recommend a trip down there to anyone.

I've returned from my writing hiatus to bring you some research I did on determining an explosive play threshold. Using scoring-probability added, I found the yardage at which a gain starts acting differently in terms of its impact on scoring. Read it FREE on my Substack 🔗⤵️

Just spent all week debugging an issue that was caused by a commit I made in January

I’m a little late to the party, but I wrote about a controversial topic from the draft community. No, not consensus big boards… Instead, I used an analytical framework to determine how many games it takes to evaluate a prospect! You can read it for free on my Substack! 🔗⤵️

Want to see how the players your team drafted compare to prospects from past seasons? I went through each position and calculated sim scores based on player athleticism, production, and usage! You can read all of them on my Substack with the methodology in the first post! 🔗⤵️

This is how I think the 1st round of the NFL draft will go tonight

Positional value has been a big topic of discussion this draft cycle with several of the top prospects playing at non-premium positions. Earlier this offseason I built a position-adjusted big board, so here's a final look at this year's version!

With draft day upon us, here's a reminder of how the 1st round salaries rank within the market at each position and their %ile among starters in terms of APY, depending on which position is drafted at each spot. Drafting Jeremiyah Love 3rd would make him the 7th-highest paid RB.

I also thought Bill made a great point about how teams are investing in their running games by going from paying running backs to paying their offensive lines more. Put this simple chart (not perfect, but good enough) together to show just how that's looked:

I had an idea to put a whole article together on why running backs shouldn't be labeled "offensive weapons" but @billbarnwell.com absolutely nailed it on the head here so I'll just leave it at that

The way that we evaluate safeties and the framing of a player being a box safety or a free safety has become outdated. My safety prospect comparisons can help contextualize the kind of role and production they had in college to understand how they may be used in the NFL! 🔗⤵️

Here's a final look at player visits and meetings with teams throughout the draft process: 🏈: Pro Day 🏃: Private Workout 💻: Virtual 🔝: Top 30 Visit 🟢: Multiple visits with prospect

This linebacker class is headlined by the duo from Ohio State, both of whom are pressing teams to ignore positional value. But, it's also a deep class with 8 LBs ranked in the top 100, the most since 2022. Take a look at who each LB prospect compared to in my sim scores! 🔗⤵️

I'm wrapping up my prospect comparison series this week and today I have the edge class! A deep group, but no elite prospect that profiles as an every-down difference maker. Still, we should see several go in the 1st round Thursday night! Unlocked this one for all to read! 🔗⤵️

My prospect comparison series rolls on with the defensive tackle class! Most of the prospects in this class don’t offer much as a pass rusher, but there are a few that stand out as great run defenders. Will be interesting to see how many go in the 1st Round. 🔗⤵️

This is an interesting tackle class. While there are 7 or 8 guys who could go in the 1st round, some have questions about whether they’re a good fit to play tackle or if they'd be better suited shifting to the interior. I calculated sim scores for each to help find out! 🔗⤵️

This year's interior OL class is pretty thin with just 6 players ranked among the top 100 consensus big board. Vega Ioane is the lone player with a 1st-round rank, but I still calculated sim scores for all the others! There are some fun guys later in the ranks imo. 🔗⤵️:

One of the primary sentiments about this WR draft class is about how strong the depth is. There are currently 15 players in the top 100 consensus big board, and I calculated sim scores for each of them! Will be covering the trenches next week, so stay tuned! 🔗to read⤵️