Stefan Müller

@stefanmueller

Associate Professor @ucddublin.bsky.social • party competition, public opinion, political communication, computational social science • Maintainer @irishpollingind.bsky.social • Young Academy Ireland stefanmueller.ie

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Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· 7d

Comprehensive update to the Irish Polling Indicator: all graphs are now fully interactive and work better on mobile devices. There’s also a new page on media coverage of the project. You can still download and reuse the data. ➡️ pollingindicator.com @irishpollingind.bsky.social

Interactive graph showing the most recent estimates

Plot comparing individual polls and Irish Polling Indicator estimates

Interactive graphs showing and explaining “house effects”

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· 28d

2) “Evidence for the irrelevance of irrelevant events”: Outcomes of inter-county hurling and Gaelic football games do not predict how the incumbents or government politicians perform at the ballot box. doi.org/10.1017/psrm...

Abstract: The expectation that voters behave rationally has been challenged through studies suggesting that "irrelevant events" like natural disasters and sports results change voting behavior. We test the effect of irrelevant events by matching candidate-level election results from Irish general (1922–2020) and local elections (1942–2019) with games in the men's Gaelic football and hurling championships, the most popular sports in Ireland. Although Irish citizens care deeply about sports, we fail to find any relationship between match results and support for incumbents or politicians of government parties. These findings hold when applying an "unexpected event during survey design" to two representative surveys. Our results contribute to the literature on political accountability and point to conditional effects of irrelevant events.

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· 28d

This work (based on a new working paper) extends our research on Gaelic games and politics: 1) “Assessing the Influence of Neutral Grounds on Match Outcomes”: Neutral venues create fairer and less predictable competition. muellerstefan.net/papers/ijpas...

Abstract: The home advantage in various sports has been well documented. So far, we lack knowledge whether playing in neutral venues indeed removes many, if not all, theoretically assumed advantages of playing at home. Analysing over 3,500 senior men's Gaelic football and hurling matches – field games with the highest participation rates in Ireland – between 2009 and 2018, we test the potential moderating influence of neutral venues. In hurling and Gaelic football, a considerable share of matches is played at neutral venues. We test the influence of neutral venues based on descriptive statistics, and multilevel logistic and multinomial regressions controlling for team strength, the importance of the match, the year, and the sport. With predicted probabilities ranging between 0.8 and 0.9, the favourite team is very likely to win home matches. The predicted probability drops below 0.6 for away matches. At neutral venues, the favourite team has a predicted probability of winning of 0.7. A Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM) approach also reveals very substantive and significant effects for the "treatment" of neutral venues. Overall, neutral venues appear to be an under-utilised option for creating fairer and less predictable competition, especially in single-game knock-out matches.

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· 28d

Article on RTÉ Brainstorm with @liamkne.bsky.social ahead of the All-Ireland Finals: we find that GAA interest cuts across income, education and gender, but not politics: Fianna Fáil voters are keenest, left-wing voters least interested. ➡️ www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2... @rtebrainstorm.bsky.social

GAA interest by age (rising from 3.3 for 18–24 year olds to 5.0 for over-65s), by gender (5.0 for men, 4.2 for women), and by area (4.9 rural, 4.4 urban), on a 0–10 scale.

Bar chart showing GAA interest by household income (from 3.2 below €20,000 to around 4.7–4.9 across all higher brackets) and by education level (from 4.0 for lower secondary to 4.7 for degree holders), on a 0–10 scale.

Average GAA interest by 2024 general election vote choice, ranked from Fianna Fáil (6.3) and Independent Ireland (5.7) down to Social Democrats (3.3) and other parties (3.2), on a 0–10 scale.

GAA interest by left-right self-placement, rising from 3.4 on the left to 5.1–5.2 among centrist and right-leaning respondents, on a 0–10 scale.

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Jul 5

📊 @independent.ie has published the survey question we’ve all been waiting for. Sample size: 1,279 respondents

Who is the greatest footballer of all time?

37% Messi
32% Pele
22% Maradona
10% Ronaldo
Excluding 35% Don't know/Don't care

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Jun 18

Looking forward to the #EPSS2026 roundtable on political dynamics on the Island of Ireland, featuring @gailmcelroy.bsky.social, @kevcunningham.bsky.social , @jamiepow.bsky.social, and John Garry. ⏰ 13:30–15:10 @epssnet.bsky.social

EPSS Roundtable 2: Political
Dynamics on the Island of Ireland

Kevin Cunningham
Ireland Thinks and TU Dublin

John Garry
Queen's University Belfast

Gail McElroy
Trinity College Dublin

Jamie Pow
Queen's University Belfast

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Apr 27

Ahead of the Dublin Central and Galway West bye-elections next month, I’ve analysed, merged, and extended various datasets to gather insights from all bye-elections over the last century. Article now published at @news.rte.ie 📄 www.rte.ie/news/analysi... 15 stats based on this analysis ⤵️

Wins by government and opposition parties/Independent candidates by decade

Party affiliation of TDs who were previously unsuccessful in a bye-election

Main source used in deciding how to vote, 2024 general election

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Apr 23

The School of Politics and International Relations is hiring an Assistant Professor (fixed-term, 3 years) in European Comparative Politics. Deadline: 19 May 2026 Job ad and details: my.corehr.com/pls/coreport... @ucdpolitics.bsky.social

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Mar 18

Really looking forward to contributing to the @ecpr.bsky.social SG Parliaments Summer School. The event is targeted at PhD researchers who want to attend seminars, discuss their own research, and learn from each other. Many thanks to Thomas Zittel for organising. ➡️ ecpr.eu/Events/364

ECPR Summer School on Parliaments 2026

Goethe-University Frankfurt, Germany
27. July - 06. August 2026

Organised by the ECPR Standing Group on Parliaments, this Summer School brings together students from all over Europe and beyond for eight days of engaging lectures and fruitful exchange. This is your chance to receive feedback on your ongoing research from peers and leading scholars in the field. This is your chance to learn about the latest theoretical and methodological advances in the fields of legislatures, representation and political parties.

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Mar 1

Excellent analysis by @gavreilly.com on whether voter registrations could put Gerry Hutch into the Dáil: gavreilly.substack.com/p/could-a-vo... I plotted Hutch’s vote share in Dublin Central against every other GE2024 candidate using these tally data. ⤵️

A small multiples scatter plot showing Gerry Hutch's first-preference vote share against each other candidate's vote share across electoral districts in Dublin Central, General Election 2024. Each of the twelve panels represents one candidate, coloured by party. A trend line shows the relationship between the two candidates' vote shares in each district.

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Feb 2

Joe Humphreys covers our research on election campaigns, candidates, and voting behaviour in today’s Irish Times. 📰 www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2026... @irishtimes.com

The Irish Times print edition, 2 February 2026

From such examples, one might conclude that relatively trivial factors are having an exaggerated impact on politics, and that social media is accelerating this change. But is it that simple? "What we definitely observe is this personalisation of politics," says Stefan Müller, associate professor in politics and international relations at University College Dublin, but establishing cause and effect is more complicated.
Müller, who specialises in using large data sets to examine political activity, is the joint author of a magnificently titled study, Evidence for the Irrelevance of Irrelevant Events. It looks at the question of whether
"irrelevant events" outside politicians' control, like sports results or natural disasters, affect voting behaviour.

The short answer is no, despite an
"influential strand" of US research suggesting otherwise. Müller and TCD academic Liam Kneafsey took a novel two-pronged approach, first, mapping GAA results with constituency voting patterns since Irish independence and, then, taking a deep-dive into recent opinion polls.
They found no evidence that sports results - or any change in mood they might generate in a community - affected Irish voting behaviour. "We believe our findings challenge previous arguments that voters are simply irrational and influenced by irrelevancies," they say.

Turning to the Kanturk example, Müller says
"there has been some commentary that this really influenced the campaign but if you look at the polling ... Fine Gael were already losing support before the Kanturk incident.
So it might have contributed to it but was it the only cause? Maybe it has changed some people's view of Simon Harris; that could be the case".
Minor events "can at least change the narrative of the campaign", he says, and there's a bandwagon effect where people tend to mirror the prejudices or preferences of their peers. If a politician gets a negative image in the public sphere - whether it's deserved or not - it can be difficult to shake off.

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Jan 22

Many thanks to the project leads: Leiden: @tomlouwerse.nl (Co-PI) Zurich: @fgilardi.bsky.social & @emmahoes.bsky.social Leuven: @rdassonneville.bsky.social & @bzar.bsky.social Edinburgh: Adam Chalmers Berlin: @bcastanho.bsky.social Details on our project: una-europa.imgix.net/documents/DE...

Abstract

As generative artificial intelligence (Al) rapidly reshapes political communication and governance, there is an urgent need to understand its implications for democratic systems.

While Al technologies have the potential to strengthen democracy (by improving access to information, enhancing participation, and supporting transparency and accountability) they also pose significant risks. These include the spread of disinformation, algorithmic bias, and the manipulation of electoral processes.

Addressing this dual challenge, the project brings together a multidisciplinary network from six Una Europa institutions to develop a pioneering framework for assessing both the democratic risks and opportunities associated with Al.

Integrating expertise from political science, communication studies, and computer science, the project will examine the impact of Al on democratic values, electoral integrity, and governance, in close consultation with key societal stakeholders.

Core activities include an interdisciplinary research workshop, a grant development workshop, and a virtual training programme on Al for research. Together, these initiatives will strengthen collaboration, build research capacity, and position Una Europa to lead future international funding initiatives in this critical area.

By co-developing innovative analytical tools and conceptual frameworks, the project aims to advance the state of the art while contributing to the protection and resilience of democratic systems in the age of Al.

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Jan 21

Connected_Politics Lab Seminars, Spring Trimester ⤵️ - 28 Jan: @jessicadicocco.bsky.social – 11 Feb: Akitaka Matsuo – 25 Feb: @malojan.bsky.social, @luissattelmayer.bsky.social, and Noémie Piolat – 4 Mar: @vivifabrien.bsky.social – 1 Apr: @elisaadamico.bsky.social – 15 Apr: @miriamsorace.bsky.social

Overview of seminar series, details available at: https://www.ucd.ie/connected_politics/events/

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Jan 16

Module structure ⤵️ muellerstefan.net/teaching/202...

Module Structure

Week 1: Introduction to Quantitative Text Analysis (21 January 2026)
Week 2: Workflow, R and Quarto (28 January 2026)
Week 3: Tokenisation and Document-Feature Matrix (4 February 2026)
Week 4: Dictionaries and Sentiment: Old and New Approaches (11 February 2026)
Week 5: Describing and Comparing Texts (18 February 2026)
Week 6: Supervised, Unsupervised, and Semi-Supervised Scaling (25 February 2026)
Week 7: Topic Models (4 March 2026)
Week 8: Retrieving, Loading, and Wrangling Text Corpora (25 March 2026)
Week 9: Fundamentals of Supervised Document Classification (1 April)
Week 10: Transformers: Fundamentals (8 April 2026)
Week 11: Fine-Tuning Transformer Models for Classification (15 April 2026)
Week 12: Large Language Models: Capabilities and Implications (22 April 2026)

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Jan 16

My updated syllabus for Quantitative Text Analysis is available online. As I previous years, I made quite a few changes and added recent literature. Part 1 (still) covers classic text-as-data approaches; Part 2 focuses on transformers and LLMs. 📄 muellerstefan.net/teaching/202... (PDF)

Title page of syllabus: https://muellerstefan.net/teaching/2026-spring-qta.pdf

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Jan 14

Book Launch of “How Ireland Voted 2024: The New Normal?” 21 January, 6pm, Dublin @hodgesfiggis.bsky.social Editors: @michaelgtcd.bsky.social, @theresareidy.bsky.social & Eoin O'Malley Launch by Pat Leahy, Political Editor, Irish Times All welcome! Register here: www.eventbrite.com/e/book-launc...

Front cover of “How Ireland Voted 2024: The New Normal?”

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Dec 19

Our neighbours at @tcdpoliticalsci.bsky.social are hiring 3 (!) tenure-track faculty members: – Assistant Professor in Political Economy – Assistant Professor in International Politics – Assistant Professor in Political Science Deadline: 15 Jan 2026 More details: jobs.tcd.ie @tcddublin.bsky.social

Photo of Trinity College Dublin taken by Stefan Müller

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Dec 5

The latest @ucdpolitics.bsky.social newsletter is out: 9 pages full of good news about our research grants, prizes and honours, new colleagues, publications, events, and our Athena Swan Silver award. Thanks to Alexa Zellentin for editing! ▶️ www.ucd.ie/spire/newsan... @ucddublin.bsky.social

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Dec 1

The chapter with @gailmcelroy.bsky.social analyses issue salience and positions. Housing and health were among the most salient issues for nearly all parties. Interestingly, immigration barely featured in the manifestos. Chapter: hdl.handle.net/10197/29172 Book: link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

The five most salient policy areas for each party

Salience of policy areas in the 2024 manifestos

The development of issue salience since 2011

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Nov 29

Exactly one year to the day after the general election, “How Ireland Voted 2024: The New Normal?” is now available in bookshops. ➡️ link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

Copies of “How Ireland Voted 2024: The New Normal?”

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Nov 20

UCD Graduate Studies and I have produced a Research Group Handbook template for supervisors and researchers. The template outlines core topics, resources, and policies that groups can adapt to their needs. ➡️ Template and details: www.ucd.ie/graduatestud... @ucddublin.bsky.social 1/2

Poster on building community through a reserach group handbook, presented at the 2025 All-Island Research Culture Network Conference in Belfast.

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Oct 29

Really important and insightful analysis of the voters who spoiled their ballots in the presidential election. @kevcunningham.bsky.social also classifies open-ended survey responses to better understand the underlying reasons and motivations. ➡️ open.substack.com/pub/kevcunni...

Respondents were asked ‘Why’ they voted the way they did in an open-ended text box. These are the responses classified into groups.

Open-ended survey responses – proportional sample of statements

% of each voter type that spoiled their ballot as opposed to those who voted at the 2025 Irish Presidential election.

% who spoiled their vote broken down by age, gender and self-reported social class.

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Oct 25

Reasons for vote choice according to the Ireland Thinks polling day poll ⤵️ #Aras25 analysis.irelandthinks.ie/polling-day-... @kevcunningham.bsky.social

Which of the following was most important in making your choice?
(Select up to 2)

Connolly voters relied on Integrity & Honesty, Competence and Communication skills. Humphreys voters more likely to focus on how the candidate represented Ireland internationally.

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Oct 25

📊 @kevcunningham.bsky.social is publishing findings from the Ireland Thinks polling day poll at analysis.irelandthinks.ie

Question: Thinking about your number 1, first- preference vote, was that choice mainly FOR your chosen candidate, OR mainly AGAINST another candidate, or both
about equally?

Question: If elected, do you feel like Catherine Connolly would be similar to Michael D. Higgins as president?

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Oct 6

There goes the paper on support for Jim Gavin among those interested in Gaelic games in Dublin versus rival counties. Liam Kneafsey and I successfully applied for including these questions in the Irish Presidential Election Study, and we completed the pre-analysis plan and code last week. 😬😢

Pre-Analysis Plan: Rivalries and Celebrity Candidates: How Sport Shapes Voting Behaviour in Ireland
Authors: Liam Kneafsey and Stefan Müller

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Sep 17

New paper in Computational Communication Research with James Cross, @derekgreene.bsky.social & Martijn Schoonvelde: “Mapping Digital Campaign Strategies: How Political Candidates Use Social Media to Communicate Constituency Connection and Policy Stance” PDF (open access): doi.org/10.5117/CCR2...

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Sep 16

Are you a @ucdpolitics.bsky.social graduate? Join our discussion event on the upcoming presidential election. 🎙️ Panelists: @kevinrafter.bsky.social, Art O'Leary & Sheila Naughton 🗓️ 30 Sept, 18:30 📍 Museum of Literature Ireland Register here: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F... @ucddublin.bsky.social

Ireland's Presidency: More Than a Figurehead?

UCD School of Politics and International Relations

SPIRe alumni in conversation with
Art O'Leary, Executive of An Coimisiún Toghcháin/The Electoral Commission
Kevin Rafter, Full Professor of Political Communication at DCU
Moderator: Sheila Naughton, RTÉ

RSVP and join us
Tuesday, September 30 6:30pm, Museum of Literature Ireland

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Sep 3

Some of the findings: – Quality of training data is more important than quantity – Separate binary classifiers performed best – Grant peer review is much more positive than negative We are now working on substantive applications (see thread below). Classifiers: huggingface.co/snsf-data

Pipeline for identifying, classifying, and validating textual characteristics in grant peer review reports

Keyness analysis revealing predictive terms for each category in the full sample of project funding review

The predicted prevalence of each category on the level of reviews. Vertical dashed lines show the average prevalence across the 47,522 review reports.

F1 scores (macro-average) depending on the size of the training set

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Sep 3

Our paper “A Supervised Machine Learning Approach for Assessing Grant Peer Review Reports” has been accepted at Quantitative Science Studies. We present a workflow and fine-tuned transformer models to analyse grant peer review reports at scale. Paper (open access): doi.org/10.1162/qss....

Abstract: Peer review is essential to the research lifecycle, yet the contents of grant peer review reports remain underexplored. Our study addresses this gap by developing a pipeline to systematically analyze these reports using Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning. We define twelve categories relevant to funding agencies, create an annotation codebook, fine-tune and validate transformer models, and apply these classifiers to a novel text corpus consisting of 1.6 million sentences from 47,522 grant peer review reports submitted to the Swiss National Science Foundation. This work has critical implications for the academic community. It provides novel insights into the content of grant peer review reports and openly available tools to enhance transparency, fairness, and consistency in grant evaluation. Our findings also highlight differences between journal and grant peer reviews, while the developed framework enables funding agencies and researchers to refine practices, fostering a more trustworthy and efficient evaluation process.

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller· Aug 25

Pleased to announce the Connected_Politics Lab Autumn Seminars: – @profdansmith.bsky.social & Nam Pham – Eoghan Cunningham @ucdpolitics.bsky.social – Elissa Berwick @mcgill.ca – @jbslapin.bsky.social – @sabrinabarias.bsky.social – @dpzollinger.bsky.social All welcome! www.ucd.ie/connected_po...