Oil is back above $100, and gas is above $4. These numbers are brutal for inflation and Americans' pocketbooks. And there is no end in sight for their fundamental cause: Trump's war of choice in Iran.

Trump promised a manufacturing boom. Instead, we've lost 75,000 jobs and $60 billion in annual factory construction since he took office. 📸: @ms.now @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social

Biden’s industrial agenda helped bring manufacturing construction to a peak of $250 billion. Under Trump, that investment rate has dropped dramatically, and the AI boom hasn’t been enough to catch up. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Manufacturing jobs grew under Biden to a peak of almost 13 million. Under Trump, they’ve declined despite his promises to “bring jobs back home.” My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump’s tariffs haven’t just hurt American business. They’re about to be a growing drain on public finances as the government pays back tariffs ruled illegal by the Supreme Court. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Musk and Trump took a hatchet to the federal government, claiming they would save $2 trillion in taxpayer money. Thousands lost jobs. Even more lost essential services. But the cuts only saved 2% of their original claims. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Under Trump, the debt held by the federal government has surpassed 100% of GDP. By 2030, it’ll shoot pass its all-time record from WWII. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump’s draconian cuts to health care, education, and foreign aid were rationalized on balancing the budget. Yet thanks to his tax cuts for the rich, the deficit is on track to hit almost 7% of GDP by 2036. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump's $4 billion Presidential windfall is unprecedented in scale & source. Obama's wealth grew from royalties from books written before office, and Bush's largely came from a sports‑team stake from over a decade prior. Trump's new billions are from deals made in office.

Trump claimed his tariffs would bring about a golden age of American manufacturing. Yet since his re-election, we've lost 75,000 manufacturing jobs. Over the same time period, Biden had created 625,000.

President Trump used to brag about all the money we were making from tariff revenue. Last month, that trend flipped to a $26 billion loss as the government started paying back the tariffs the Supreme Court ruled illegal. The refund bill is just getting started.

Under Trump, U.S. federal debt has surpassed 100% of GDP for the first time since WWII. And it's on track to beat that all-time record by 2030.

Americans are still struggling to pay higher gas prices (up 31% since before the war). Big oil, on the other hand, is raking in record profits—double or triple of what they made during the same period last year. 📸: @msnowreports.bsky.social @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social

Oil prices are back up, but even more concerning, the market expects them to remain above pre-war levels for months if not years. A peace deal still seems distant, and if it happens, it will take months to rebuild export capacity. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

The Strait of Hormuz is closed again -- before it ever fully reopened. That is bad news for oil prices and inflation as a huge portion of global oil supply is stuck in the Gulf. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

The major winner from the Iran War financially has been big oil. Those stocks are up almost 28% this year – 3x the S&P and over 20x wage growth. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Oil and gas prices fell with the signing of the MoU, but they are back up again. Today, oil is 18% above pre-war levels while gas is 31% higher. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

The oil shock from the Iran War hasn’t hit all households equally. Wealthy Americans are consuming just as much gas while spending way more. Lower-income Americans, on the other hand, have had to cut back on driving to cope with higher prices. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

The Iran War pushed inflation above wage growth for two months, but then prices ticked down last month. Both metrics were at 3.5% in June, meaning price growth still erased all wage gains over the past year. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Oil prices are up nearly $4.50 since Trump scrapped the MoU with Iran. Without a deal, the market is pricing in elevated oil prices through 2030. The margin of increase will likely go up if there is no progress on negotiations in the coming weeks.

Companies associated with Trump's sons have received $1 billion and counting in government contracts since he returned to office. We've never seen anything like this coming out of the White House. 📸: @ms.now @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social

The median home price reached an all-time high last month in nominal terms: $440,600. But in today's dollars, prices actually peaked in June 2022 and are down 6% since.

Under Trump, pardons have a price, and criminals know it. Trump has erased a growing number of criminal convictions – and $1.5 billion in penalties and restitution owed to taxpayers and victims – for his donors and friends. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

The emoluments clause is supposed to prevent the President from receiving foreign bribes. That hasn’t stopped Trump’s family from receiving about $13 billion in “investments” from foreign governments, especially in the Middle East. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Jared Kushner & Trump's sons have raised $13 billion from foreign governments, mostly in the Middle East. At the same time, Kushner serves as Special Envoy to the region, negotiating with the very countries with which he's financially conflicted. 📸: @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social

World Liberty Financial has been the biggest crypto cash cow for the Trumps. It follows a familiar “pump-and-dump” pattern that delivered $1.1 billion for the family. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Reuters analysis found that the Trumps have raked in $2.3 billion from 4 different crypto ventures. Through the same schemes, their investors lost $2.3 billion. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

The Trumps aren’t just using their family name to make money. Their companies have received almost a billion $$ in federal contracts – a shocking and unprecedented display of corruption. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump has given up on any of the financial restraint he exercised in term 1. This term, he’s more than doubled his net worth to $6.5 billion, largely through crypto schemes and Truth Social. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Exports fell in May, but the bigger story for the trade deficit is the relentless rise in imports — up five straight months to $395 billion. That's likely to weigh on GDP growth: the AI boom is proving to be highly import-intensive, with capital goods imports hitting a record $128 billion.