Tim Bale

@timbale

Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London & author of The Conservative Party after Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation (now out in paperback). The bits and pieces I do for websites and newspapers turn up eventually at

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Tim Bale@timbale· 27d

The FT scored highest on relating extreme heat stories to the climate, with nearly two thirds making the link – that is, 50 out of its 78 stories over the period. The Guardian came next, with roughly half of its heat-related stories drawing the link to the climate crisis – 64 out of 131 articles.

The Independent was the most prolific of the outlets studied, with 783 heatwave stories over the period, of which 304 – roughly 39% – mentioned the climate. About a fifth of the Mail’s more than 300 heatwave stories referred to global heating, and about one in eight of the 400-plus stories in the Express.

The Mirror also had a large number of heatwave stories – more than 300 – but only 9% of them mentioned the climate. The Sun came bottom of the ranking, with 69 heatwave stories in the time studied, of which only 6% included a climate angle.

Tim Bale@timbale· 27d

Obviously, there are other big stories around today. But, as far as I can make out, the Indy is the only paper that splashes this morning on the Covid Inquiry's tale of billions wasted. Can only imagine the field-day the right-wing press would have had had it happened under a different government.

Tim Bale@timbale· 27d

Jeez Sam, you’d have thought by now you’d know how to pronounce Deschamps.

Tim Bale@timbale· 28d

Possibly one of the first in-terms mentions in the UK of ‘remigration’, albeit spelled differently: Enoch Powell’s largely forgotten follow-up to ‘Rivers of Blood’ in my hometown, Autumn 1968, in which he posits the impossibility of assimilation. (Source: Hansen, 2000: 188).

Tim Bale@timbale· 28d

Finished this last night. Fun if you like 19th century novels - and especially if you know Wellington, NZ. So I was the target audience!

Tim Bale@timbale· 29d

Serious "Ooh, er, Missus" vibes

Photo of Nigel Farage looking for all the world like Kenneth Williams or Frankie Howerd.

Tim Bale@timbale· 29d

So many memes, so little time. Source: substack.com/@nigelfarage...

Count Binface on the beach as Farage rows away in a boat full of cash.

Tim Bale@timbale· Jul 10

That Dicky (©️ @mrjohncrace.bsky.social) doesn't see the glaring contradiction between banging on about an 'establishment' plot at the same time as bigging up his links with 'a very successful aristocratic family') is truly delicious.

Tim Bale@timbale· Jul 10

Salisbury Cathedral looking mighty fine this morning.

Tim Bale@timbale· Jul 9

William Hague talking here in Salisbury Cathedral about, among other things, the qualities needed by successful prime ministers, the first of which is a sense of direction.

Tim Bale@timbale· Jul 9

Had to be done.

Overton station from the window of the train.

Tim Bale@timbale· Jul 9

On a @southwesterntrains.bsky.social that's hotter than Hades. Status:

Martin Goodman - shirtless - from Friday Night Dinner.

Tim Bale@timbale· Jul 9

@rachelsylvester.bsky.social talking a whole lot of sense about how (and how not) to handle Farage and Reform in her excellent @theobserveruk.bsky.social newsletter.

The curious incident of the Clacton byelection is a reminder that Farage’s power derives almost entirely from the reaction of those around him. He needed David Cameron to give him the Brexit referendum he had long campaigned for, and he relied on Boris Johnson and Michael Gove to help him win the leave vote by giving a veneer of respectability to the Brexit cause.

Keir Starmer wrote red lines for the UK’s negotiations with the EU into Labour’s manifesto and stuck to them throughout his time as prime minister despite the harm they were doing to the economy because he was afraid of Farage. Without these other politicians willing to do what he wanted, the Reform leader would have achieved nothing. Farage is one of the most consequential figures of the last decade in British politics but only because of the effect he has had on other leaders. He is like the moon that shines only because of the light from the sun.

For too long, the mainstream parties have danced to Farage’s tune. Starmer was so worried about the threat from Reform that he made a speech he didn’t believe, warning that Britain was in danger of turning into an “island of strangers”. He introduced tough immigration reforms and limited his ambition on Europe because he was afraid of Farage. It felt inauthentic from a liberal human rights lawyer but it was also a political mistake because Starmer was fighting on Farage’s territory – immigration, crime, Europe – rather than on his own terms. He was stepping into the ring built by Reform, and it trapped him.

But the truth is Farage depends on other politicians for his success and when they call him out, or ignore him, they are empowered. Kemi Badenoch, liberated by the departure of Robert Jenrick and other Tory defectors, has found her voice and now mocks Farage rather than mimicking him. It is working.

Tim Bale@timbale· Jul 9

Even the Mail's now taking the p*ss.

Daily Mail: FARAGE: BINFACE BY-ELECTION IS DEADLY SERIOUS

Tim Bale@timbale· Jul 8

JICYMI - hugely enjoyable interview with the Count himself on the Today Programme this morning: starts at 2hrs54min into the show.

Tim Bale@timbale· Jul 8

Farage has lost the Telegraph (and even the Mail isn't that impressed). Still got the Express, though, for whatever that's worth nowadays.

Front page of the Daily Telegraph, declaring "Farage gamble turns to farce".

Tim Bale@timbale· Jul 7

Is this right? Not convinced myself, but anyone know for sure?

Tim Bale@timbale· Jul 7

Say what you like, but this represents a major comms failure on the part of the Labour government - something Burnham will surely seek to improve upon.

Graph of results of a survey in which respondents were asked to name, unprompted, anything they can remember the Labour government doing since it was elected in July 2024. Very few people can remember particular policies.

Tim Bale@timbale· Jul 6

"Economic stagnation is harming our health", Scott Corfe www.scottcorfe.com/post/economi...

If the pre-financial crisis trend in living standards had been maintained, British households would today be £7,000 per person better off.

The UK would be significantly healthier than it is today if pre-crisis growth had persisted. I estimate that:

750,000 fewer working-age people would be in poor health

There would be 2,500 fewer deaths of despair (suicide, drugs and alcohol-related deaths) each year.

If the economy had maintained pre-financial crisis growth, there would be £80bn more funding per year available for the NHS, further strengthening health outcomes - equivalent to the salaries of over 2.5 million newly qualified nurses or the capital expenditure costs of building 63 new hospitals.

Tim Bale@timbale· Jul 6

This has to be one of the prescient things ever written about the Tory Party: it's Ivor Crewe in the wake of the 2001 General Election.

Crewe suggesting that one option for the Tories is to go toward the populist radical right.

Tim Bale@timbale· Jul 3

Apsley House, London. Well worth a visit!

Tim Bale@timbale· Jul 1

Those were the days! General Election posters, 1955.

Tim Bale@timbale· Jun 30

👏 @encompasseurope.bsky.social

Tim Bale@timbale· Jun 30

Just @bjennings90.bsky.social being brilliant in the Guardian again.

Andy Burnham about to serve at Wimbledon while the umpire says, 'Quiet, please.'

Tim Bale@timbale· Jun 29

Sheffield Park, Saturday.

Tim Bale@timbale· Jun 29

If you like a hollow laugh, you'll love this:

Other victims? Donaldson’s successor as DUP chief, East Belfast MP Gavin Robinson, told a Stormont press conference he hasn’t spoken yet to two senior party members, ex-North Antrim MP Ian Paisley Jr. and Edwin Poots, speaker of the Northern Ireland Assembly. According to a BBC Spotlight investigation, they were made aware of other sexual allegations levied by a young woman against Donaldson back in 2021, when Donaldson and Poots were leadership rivals.

Pressure on Poots: Leaders of other Northern Ireland parties, including Justice Minister Naomi Long, today called for Poots to step aside from his speaker’s role. But Robinson said any findings of an internal cover-up must await the DUP’s in-house review of who knew what and when.

Tim Bale@timbale· Jun 29

What on earth is the point of all the praise for AB's social media game when the first reply that comes up on X to the whizzy tweet showing him about to give his speech turns out to be this poisonous crap. Show some guts, Andy, and get off X.

Mocked up image of Burnham taking a selfie with loads of Muslim men in life jackets in Westminster Hall.

Tim Bale@timbale· Jun 29