Transition Security Project
@transitionsec
Investigating the US and UK military industrial complexes as economic, climate and geopolitical threats. By @cmmonwealth.bsky.social and @cplusc.bsky.social.
🚨 “Opposing this war is a necessity if the cost of living agenda is to succeed.” Ten trade unions have called for Andy Burnham to oppose the war on Iran & stop British bases being used to launch US air strikes. Read the letter in full 👇
🚨NEW🚨: Ten unions call for Andy Burnham to oppose the war on Iran & stop British bases being used to launch US air strikes. The unions argue that the “devastating, illegal war” is a catastrophe for the Middle East & that it directly undermines Burnham’s cost of living agenda.
Military spending is a bad strategy for job creation. Our recent analysis of the extra £15 billion the last UK government devoted to its Defence Investment Plan showed that it will lead to net job losses. Find out more 🔗 transitionsecurity.org/buying-the-dip
“Spending cuts to fund defence plans ‘will cost 10,000 UK jobs’” Our new analysis on the front page of @theguardian.com today 👇
The expansive spending pathway taken by government to meet the NATO target more than doubles the military budget by the 2035/36 financial year, costing £279.3bn more than if military spending were kept at the current share of GDP.
Cuts used to fund the £15 billion in additional military spending in the Defence Investment Plan will lead to around 10,000 net jobs lost in the UK.
“It's luxury for the Ministry of Defence and austerity for everyone else.” Our Co-Director Khem Rogaly for @novaramedia.com 👇
“The money for the MoD is already increasing significantly ... where we need public investment is in other urgent priorities. It's addressing the cost of living crisis. It's addressing the climate transition.” Our Co-Director Khem Rogaly on @lbc.co.uk 👇
“Who should [the public] believe ... the current government or military chiefs?” “Actually, neither.” Our Co-Director Khem Rogaly on @lbc.co.uk 👇
Samar Al-Bulushi is Associate Professor of Anthropology at UC Irvine and the author of War-Making as Worldmaking. She researches militarism in Africa, the politics of non-alignment and the future of global order.
Lorah Steichen researches climate, militarism and global political economy. She is the Research Manager at Transition Security Project & the Global Systems and Policy Manager at Climate and Community Institute.
Guillaume Long is the former Foreign Minister of Ecuador and the Senior Diplomatic Adviser to the Hague Group. He is also a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Economic and Policy Research.
Adam Hanieh is the Director of the SOAS Middle East Institute and the author of several books on Middle East politics, oil and capitalism, including Crude Capitalism and (with Rafeef Ziadah and Robert Knox) Resisting Erasure.
Adrienne Buller is the Founding Editor of The BREAK—DOWN, a new media initiative focused on the political economy of climate and ecological crisis. She is the author of The Value of a Whale, which won the 2024 Eric Zencey Prize in Ecological Economics.
Leases on more than a fifth of the 222,000 acres of Hawaiian land occupied by the US military are set to expire. What could Hawaiʻi look like if the military didn’t occupy so much land? Watch our new video to learn more 👇
Union rates have declined sharply since the Cold War. At least 69% of the Lockheed Corporation was unionized in 1971. The unionization rate today is 19% at Lockheed Martin and 4% at Northrop Grumman.
While jobs in the arms sector have fallen sharply, the Pentagon budget has grown by 22%.
📈 KEY FINDINGS Employment at military contractors has plummeted over the past three decades: from an est. 3.2m workers during the Reagan military-spending peak in the mid-1980s to 1.1m workers in 2020.
A rapid renewable electricity transition in Cuba is technically feasible and more cost-effective than continued investment in fossil fuel capacity in part because costs for key technologies have dropped dramatically.
“[British] military bases have been used in this war against Iran, which has been a war of aggression and an illegal war … we cannot let our bases be used again.” Khem Rogaly speaks to @lbc.co.uk 👇
“We’ve had heavy bombers, US strategic bombers, being launched from British soil to strike Iran. It’s a key part of the US strategy and it means that we are unfortunately involved in this illegal and destabilising war.” Khem Rogaly on @lbc.co.uk 👇
“You have to reduce the propensity for big states to pick fights with countries around the world, and the only way you're really going to do that is by reducing the capacity of militaries to wage these wars of choice.” @pmbigger.bsky.social speaks to @npr.org 👇
Kemi Badenoch wants to reimpose the two child benefit cap to fund military spending. This is alongside her push for the UK to expand its role in the illegal war on Iran, which threatens economic stability and the cost of living. Khem Rogaly’s response on @LBC 👇
Europe’s dependence on US gas is a critical weakness — existing because Europe failed to invest in energy independence during the energy crisis. While Europe was funnelling money to US fossil fuel firms, China spent €1.1 trillion more on the energy transition.
As Europe phased out gas from Russia, much of it was replaced by US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) — which is more expensive, has greater price swings and is worse for the climate. LNG prices in Europe spiked by over 50% after the US attack on Iran.
Fossil fuels are a core lever of US power, especially in crises. We estimate that since prices spiked in 2022 due to war in Ukraine, the EU & UK have spent an additional $1.8 TRILLION on energy. Much of this went to the US: in 2022, US fossil fuel firms made $241bn in extra profits
“Companies like BAE Systems ... rely on public money although they are privately owned, with institutional investors benefitting from surging government spending and direct subsidies for research and development.” Khem Rogaly in @irishexaminer.bsky.social 👇 🖋️ @colinivan.bsky.social
“As we see this relationship between the US and Europe rupturing, what we have to think about is: what are the interests of the safety of European citizens, are we served by continuing to partner with the US?” Khem Rogaly on @lbc.co.uk 👇
“This additional £130bn per year [of military spending] ... has not been set by Britain's security needs ... it was set by the US and will mean we have fewer resources for other key priorities ... mak[ing] our country weaker over the long run.” Khem Rogaly on LBC News. 👇
According to SIPRI, NATO’s five per cent target means increasing UK military and security spending by more than £130 billion per year from 2035. The benefits of this will flow to the private shareholders of arms companies. Watch our latest video 👇