Tia Yang
@tsyang27
Philly-based news editor and data journalist. Past: FiveThirtyEight, CQ Roll Call. Posts before 2/10/26 are migrated from fka Twitter.
Women: Continuing the trends that @meredithconroy_ has been tracking for years, women make up nearly half of Democratic primary winners, but less than 2 in 10 among Republicans. In the most competitive districts, 54% of Dem nominees so far are women, vs 15% of GOP nominees. 6/x
Trump: He’s continuing to endorse a ton of candidates. Even among non-incumbents in contested races, his endorsement record is 41 for 45, or 91%. Republicans are looking to the president, not party committees, for signals of who to rally behind. 4/x
Progressives: More than half in our dataset won their races, including some upsets of progressive-aligned incumbents in safe blue seats. More progressives have already *won* in the first half of this cycle than the number that ran last cycle. 2/x
Latest at @fiftyplusone.news: We built a dataset tracking every primary endorsement from Trump, progressive groups, party committees, women’s groups, and pro-Israel groups. Halfway through the season, here's who's winning. 🧵 blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/primary-pr...
Latest in House exodus from @fiftyplusone.news: A record number of sitting House members are running for other offices — and losing in the primaries. Many chose to enter crowded primary fields, and a dozen have already failed to secure their party's nomination. open.substack.com/pub/fiftyplu...
High party unity has increasingly been a norm and a necessity this era of slim majorities and high polarization. But the cracks are already starting to show in 2026, as lawmakers navigate Trump's controversial foreign policies, government funding, and electoral pressures. 6/
On the other side of the aisle, the redder their district, the more likely Democrats were to vote with Trump. The median Democrat sided with him on just 10 percent of votes, but one (Cuellar) did so slightly more often than the most moderate Republican (Fitzpatrick) 5/
GOP alignment was similar in the House, where 182 of 219 Republicans backed Trump on every vote, as leadership worked overtime to keep intraparty squabbles (like on those tariff policies) off the floor. Every House vote in this study went Trump's way. 4/
The Senate agenda was dominated by nominations, but most GOP defections came on legislation. Of 53 non-nomination votes in this analysis, 39 responded to executive action, like 3 votes to rebuke Trump's tariff policies that drew enough GOP support to pass the Senate. 3/
In the Senate, all but 8 Republicans agreed with Trump 100% of the time. Paul, Murkowski, Collins, and McConnell broke most often from the President. Democrats were largely aligned against Trump, though Fetterman voted most often with him. 2/
Excited to carry on the Trump Score name with @VoteHub! I gathered Trump's positions on 282 floor votes in 2025 to calculate how often each member of Congress agreed with the president, and dug into what issues and dynamics have dominated floor action in Trump's second term. 🧵
In a new analysis for @VoteHub, @marywitha4 and I dug into county-level turnout in VA, PA, and NJ to explore off-year turnout trends, and how electorates changed after the 2016 election. (Spoiler: suburban voters love to vote.)
Things that were not on my bingo card today lol https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1952837234891301218
Do... Do Trump's employees have serial numbers? (Severance-coded) https://www.whitehouse.gov/remarks/2025/01/remarks-by-president-trump-at-executive-order-signing/ h/t @holly_fuong
With full attendance and Massie voting against him, Johnson can only afford 1 GOP present vote. 2+ present = no majority. 5+ would give Jeffries the majority. In comparison, McCarthy won in 2023 with 6 GOP present votes, Pelosi in 2021 with 3 Dems present, 2 Dems against.
In 538's latest, Mary Radcliffe and Cooper Burton took a deep dive into the polling, politics and pros and cons of some of the leading Harris VP candidates. Read the full story here! https://abcnews.go.com/538/8-potential-kamala-harris-vp-picks-bring-table/story?id=112280594
On the chamber’s 30-odd non-nomination votes, some endangered (or retiring, in Manchin’s case) Democrats used Congressional Review Act votes to burnish their moderate credentials and go on record against the president’s policies in largely symbolic votes. 5/
How did Congress vote in relation to Biden’s positions in 2023? Some highlights from our latest analysis: House Republicans spent much of their floor time passing measures with little chance of becoming law. That meant they voted pretty cohesively as a party. 1/
On the third ballot, Jordan loses ground, with 25 members now voting against him (plus two GOP absences). All GOP votes here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1f5Ezu28UaO8NncBr6fG_moy2inMz70XfRZKvVrH8cAQ/edit?pli=1#gid=144344344
🎵 Should I give up, or should I just keep chasing floor votes?🎵 2nd ballot speaker vote up next, updates here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1f5Ezu28UaO8NncBr6fG_moy2inMz70XfRZKvVrH8cAQ/edit?usp=sharing
To any I've antagonized with my firm opinions that Philly is a better city than DC... I'll admit that some views here really can't be beat. To my coworkers and anyone who's followed my floor updates or stupid Congress jokes, thanks so much for a great ride.
And I'll always remember leaving the Capitol around 2am that summer during House Democrats' gun control sit-in, wondering if the lawmakers and protesters would still be there the next day.
I'll always remember how welcome fellow reporters made me feel on my first day on the Hill, where I cluelessly tagged along with @doug_sword at a FinServ markup (what's a finserv?) and @kelmej after Tuesday caucus lunches (something about a clock?)
Though not confirmed by Republicans, Democratic Whip @WhipKClark signals that the House IS expecting to consider and vote on the GOP debt limit package today.
Per the majority whip's office, the House is no longer expected to consider the Rules package tonight after the speaker vote wraps up and members are sworn in.
Chaplain Kibben: "Our hope is in the Lord. Not in rulers or principalities, parties or persons. And we are keenly aware ... that their plans come to nothing. You, oh Lord, thwart the plans of nations, you thwart the purposes of the people."
There was a big cluster of senators conferring around Schumer's desk for several minutes, as we continue to wait for a deal on omnibus votes.