UK Weather Updates
@ukwx
Amateur weather enthusiast from Wakefield. Providing balanced UK weather commentary, frequent severe weather updates, model insights & severe weather graphics.
Here's how viewing prospects currently look for peak of the eclipse tomorrow using the UKV 06z run. Higher values = more favourable viewing conditions. 70+ is generally encouraging, while below 50 increasingly suggests problematic low/medium cloud.
An AMBER extreme heat warning has now been issued for a large swathe of central England, extending into the Home Counties. The Met Office is highlighting the potential for temperatures to reach 37-38°C across parts of eastern, southeastern and central England.
England is looking rather... crispy. This Sentinel-2 satellite image from 8 August really puts the persistence of the dry weather into perspective.
Number of days reaching 30°C or above using Met Office HadUK provisional data up to 31st July. This number has risen since then in the last 10 days. For some parts of the country, 30°C hasn't been an occasional extreme this summer. It's been a recurring feature.
Here is a weighted subjective blend using UKV, ICON-EU, ARPEGE. 70-100 = generally favourable, although high cloud may still be present 50-70 = mixed/marginal 30-50 = increasingly affected by low-medium cloud 0-30 = poor viewing prospects
Viewing proxy using the 03z UKV for the maximum point of the eclipse on Wednesday. It samples conditions W-WNW of each location to better reflect the low position of the sun around maximum eclipse. Higher values = a more favourable modelled line of sight.
The Dragonera buoy, west of Mallorca, recorded a sea surface temperature of 33°C this afternoon. If confirmed, it would be the highest buoy recorded temperature in the Mediterranean. Much of the basin is in a Strong-Severe marine heatwave, with pockets of Extreme.
It could be a grand end to April and start of May for the UK should 06z GFS verify. There are still a fair few ensembles that collapse the high or retrogress it to turn it cooler and more unsettled. This is occurring in the guidance around the 26th-28th.
Information about named storms is available too. I'm working on adding all the data about them quite slowly, as developing the model is a priority for me.
One key aspect of the site is to host live lightning data, with easy to access archive data. You can generate your own maps and publish them, with your preferred map style. As well as that, you can obtain local statistics!
The PNG outlooks that get posted here will also be posted on the site, with less text on posts to encourage users to go to the site. Additionally, I am working on verification of forecasts to be automatically created on the site. Fingers crossed it works! Archive is viewable too.
Some new things! My site is live and accessible: ukwx.github.io I have also developed a LAI.v1 (Lightning Activity Index) model, which in its initial stage appeared to overdo risks, but LAI.v2 is in the works and should have significant upgrades as well as extra features.
High pressure is on the way! Positioning of the high will be crucial on our weather. Risk of some overnight frosts. Let's just hope the 00z ECMWF is wrong in bringing a northerly in the last 6 days of April. 😅
Some very stormy charts continue to be shown for Friday by the global models - there remains great uncertainty on exact positioning and potential intensity of the winds. Location will matter on areas at greatest risk of strongest of the winds. Eyes peeled on the models!
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK VALID: Tomorrow, 26th September More info: www.instagram.com/p/DAW0QSdiBLE/
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK VALID: Today Interactive map: ukwxupdates.org More info: www.instagram.com/p/DALV3XLClzZ/ [UPDATE 1] Thunderstorms are expected to develop again through this afternoon, some of which may be locally strong.
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK VALID: Tomorrow, 20th September Interactive map: ukwxupdates.org More info: www.instagram.com/p/DAGfQ18C8pw/ [UPDATE 1] A trough moving through tomorrow afternoon, with embedded instability, will allow the development of thundery showers and thunderstorms.
A sunshine and shower kind of day again - less windy today so could fly the drone up and catch this passing heavy shower ☔️
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK VALID: Tomorrow, 6th September Interactive map: ukwxupdates.org More info: www.instagram.com/p/C_iMn87C-Lp/ [UPDATE 1] Through early tomorrow morning, with an unstable air continuing to be present, this is likely to bring a further risk of thunderstorms.
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK VALID: Tomorrow, 1st September Interactive map: ukwxupdates.org More info: www.instagram.com/p/C_WCbEaij84/ [UPDATE 1] Significant uncertainty remains on thunderstorm development, if any, through tomorrow afternoon.
Perhaps a little less uncertainty now. ECM OP and its ensembles remain rather keen on a disturbance to be stuck and move over the UK and to our W/SW GFS differs, but there are about 17/30 of its ensembles suggesting a scenario more akin of the ECMWF. ECMWF ensembles largely supportive of ECM OP.
A decent weekend coming up! Temperatures generally around 18-22°C. SE looks to be more prone to cloud this time around, but plenty of dry weather in store. Might need to watch the possibility of something thundery through Sunday in the SE.
High pressure beginning to build in today, what looks to be a rather warm and sunny weekend! However.. as I mentioned a couple days ago, that weakness in between the initial build of pressure and a rebuild of the Azores high needed watching, which continues to be modeled.
All that build of high pressure just for us to sit under the 'green blob' of doom thanks to a weakness in the ridging. 🧐 One of many possible outcomes as we go into this weekend and start of next week.
It is a different disturbance that has developed courtesy of an active jet after Ernesto's passage this morning. The remnants of Ernesto have been largely consumed by the larger more dominant low to the east of Iceland, while Lilian is a discreet intensifying area of low pressure.
#Ernesto remains a hurricane at a relatively high latitude of 43.8°N (similar latitude to just off the northern coast of Spain).