If you're betting on the Navajo Nation Presidential Election, there's no point in calling the number, there's no saving you

I cannot escape state legislatures, the probable Democratic nominee for a competitive State Assembly district is at the Brewers game. He’s the President of the building-trades council and it’s union day, so that’s why he’s here

I need to start a No Context State Legislatures account if I keep finding gems like this

And here it is in chart form. The floor still hasn't been hit with the Delaware Republicans. Outside of HD-09, they have two more Harris-won districts to defend in #HD22 (Harris+16) and #HD34 (Harris+4). Luckily for them, the GOP incumbents there are NOT retiring.

Here is my first forecast for this year's state legislative elections in Delaware! Thanks to the GOP incumbent retiring in #HD09 (Harris+15), the Dems have a good chance at getting a 2/3rd supermajority in both chambers, which would enable them to pass constitutional amendments.

COMING TONIGHT: My first set of ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Delaware! The Democrats need just one more seat in the State House in order to pass constitutional amendments. Can they pick off another Harris-won Republican district in order to get there?

Now seated for

Thanks to the Republican incumbent messing up her paperwork, the Democrats have automatically flipped Florida's #HD47, a Trump+3 seat covering the St. Cloud area. They were already on track to flip it back (being majority-Hispanic and backing Biden by 13), but now it's automatic

Can the Democrats flip the (crucial) Waukesha Assembly district in Wisconsin this year? They stand a decent chance at doing so, as #AD82 only backed Trump by 8 in 2024. They're also helped by the Republican incumbent retiring AND running a good candidate in a Waukesha Alderman.

With Democratic support among Hispanic voters seemingly on the rebound, I'm interested to see how that plays out in Washington's #LD14. This district is majority-Hispanic and swung from Biden+15 to Harris+1. If it swing back hard, the Dems could flip both State House seats here.

And here it is in chart form. Despite his weakening approval ratings, Phil Scott remains the major reason why Republicans hold as many of these seats to begin with. Without him at the top of the ticket this year, they'd be facing an extinction-level event for sure.

Here is my first forecast for this year's state legislative elections in Vermont! While Governor Scott was able to use his popularity to flip over 20 seats in 2024, a combo of his weakening popularity + Trump in the White House should lead to Democratic gains this year.

COMING TONIGHT: My first set of ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Vermont! After Phil Scott's downballot support led Republicans to heights not seen since before the Trump era, will that continue this year? Will Democrats be able to reclaim a supermajority?

A new interesting name could be joining the state legislative ranks if he wins his primary in September. In Massachusetts, former Bachelorette runner-up/HGTV show host Chris Lambton is the frontrunner for a district in Barnstable County!

And here it is in chart form. The Connecticut GOP (despite being in superminority hell) definitely have a lot of room to fall. A lot of their seats were won by Harris/narrowly Trump-won, so if the Democrats do even slightly better downballot, then we could see a lot of losses.

Here is my first forecast for this year's state legislative elections in Connecticut! The Connecticut Democrats have gained seats in both chambers in every election year since 2018 and that will certainly continue this year thanks to a blue environment and GOP retirements.

COMING TONIGHT: My first set of ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Connecticut! 10 years ago, the Connecticut Republicans were inches away from flipping control of the state legislature. Now, they're in a superminority. Will things get worse this year?

He's so upset that Palestinian-Americans didn't support a guy who has been accused of domestic abuse AND said that Biden stole the election in 2020 AND has a history of going on Fox News. Sorry Willie, I don't think Palestinian-American support would have moved the needle from your 3% of the vote.

State Senator Willie Preston is the worst Democratic State Senator in Illinois example number infinity

After losing Colorado's #HD19 in 2024 thanks to their incumbent dropping out before the election, the Dems are hoping to flip it back this year. With their replacement candidate from 2024 (Jillaire McMillan) running a full campaign, they're favored to win this Harris+9 district.

Florida's #HD22 is truly Gainesville vs the World because any hopes of Dems flipping the district comes down to huge numbers from the home of the University of Florida. It backed Trump by 6 despite Harris winning Gainesville by 19. Why? She lost the two rural counties by 50-60!

As the Democrats look to flip the Arizona Senate, #SD02 in northern Phoenix will be a key seat for them in order to do so. This seat backed Trump by 5, but Republican incumbent Shawnna Bolick only won by 4. She's facing a primary challenge from the right later this month.

The Michigan Democrats are hoping to flip back #HD109 this year, the one competitive seat on the Upper Peninsula. This Trump+1 seat saw former TV meteorologist Karl Bohnak unseat Democratic incumbent Jenn Hill by three points in 2024, but in a bluer year he's very vulnerable.

Melat Kiros wasn't the only left-winger to unseat an establishment incumbent in Denver on Tuesday. That's because Iris Halpern unseated Democratic incumbent Sean Camacho in #HD06 by 10 points! Camacho got into the State House in 2024 by actually unseating a DSA incumbent.

With #AD69 Assemblyman Micah Lasher running (and winning) for Congress, a fierce race to replace him was on in this Manhattan district. In the end, Mamdani-backed attorney Eli Northrup easily defeated the establishment-backed Stephanie Ruskay, winning by over 20 points!

In other words, the people of Colorado came within six points of doing this to Hickenlooper bsky.app/profile/uncr...

Just looking at a precinct result map of #CO01, it seems pretty obvious that Melat Kiros easily won minority voters against Diana DeGette. (Darker shade = More minority voters for the image on the right)

And the Republicans are about to nominate the most insane man of all time to be their nominee for Governor in Colorado

The one DSA candidate to lose in New York City last week was Conrad Blackburn in #AD70. Blackburn lost to incumbent Jordan Wright (the son of the Manhattan Dems President) by 8 in this Harlem district. Blackburn was heavily attacked for interning for Pam Bondi in his early life.

Colorado's #HD13 is the home to State House Speaker Julie McCluskie. She's term-limited this year and (alongside almost the entire establishment) endorsed Chris Floyd. He's only winning by 30 votes against the Sierra Club/Julie Gonzales-endorsed Consuelo Redhorse. Big establishment L if Floyd loses