VoteHub projects Victor Marx to win the Republican primary for Colorado Governor.

Maine U.S. Senate Forecast Democratic Win Probability 🔵 July 2: 57.1% 🔵 July 9: 64.5%

TONIGHT — We are only tracking one election. Voters in Shady Cove, Oregon, are deciding whether to recall Mayor Lena Richardson. Petitioners cite legal spending and delayed council appointments; Richardson says the effort reflects broader disputes over her leadership.

We expect Shapiro’s gains to come largely from shifts back toward Democrats in heavily Hispanic areas. Shown is our precinct-level forecast for North Philadelphia/Kensington, with a projected swing of 21+ points ⬅️.

Pennsylvania Governor has moved to Solid Democratic in our forecast. Current win probability: 🔵 D 95.2% Projected vote share: 🔵 Shapiro +14.4

Democrats have slightly improved their standing in the generic ballot since June 21, when their lead over Republicans narrowed to D +5.0. Current average: 🔵 D +6.0 Change since June 1: 🔴 R +1.5

Maine is nearing Tossup status. Platner's chances in our Complete model have fallen to 56.7% as Kalshi has moved to a dead heat amid his controversies and stronger polling for Collins. Our Legacy model, based on polls and fundamentals only, still gives Platner about a 60% chance.

VoteHub projects John Hickenlooper to win the Democratic primary for Colorado U.S. Senate.

VoteHub projects Melat Kiros to win the Democratic primary for Colorado U.S. House District 1.

VoteHub projects Jeff Hurd to win the Republican primary for Colorado U.S. House District 3.

VoteHub projects Jena Griswold to win the Democratic primary for Colorado Attorney General.

VoteHub projects Manny Rutinel to win the Democratic primary for Colorado U.S. House District 8.

VoteHub projects Amanda Gonzalez to win the Democratic primary for Colorado Secretary of State.

VoteHub projects Lauren Boebert to win the Republican primary for Colorado U.S. House District 4.

VoteHub projects Eileen Laubacher to win the Democratic primary for Colorado U.S. House District 4.

Rep. Tom Kean Jr. returned to the House floor to address his absence, saying he has been dealing with depression. Kean has missed 142 consecutive votes.

VoteHub projects Julia Letlow to win the Republican primary runoff for Louisiana U.S. Senate.

VoteHub projects Jamie Davis to win the Democratic primary runoff for Louisiana U.S. Senate.

VoteHub projects April McClain Delaney to win the Democratic primary for Maryland U.S. House District 6.

VoteHub projects Adrian Boafo to win the Democratic primary for Maryland U.S. House District 5.

VoteHub projects Jessica González-Rojas to win the Democratic primary for New York State Senate District 13.

VoteHub projects Diana Moreno to win the Democratic primary for New York State Assembly District 36.

VoteHub projects David Orkin to win the Democratic primary for New York State Assembly District 38.

VoteHub projects Samantha Kattan to win the Democratic primary for New York State Assembly District 37.

VoteHub projects Aber Kawas to win the Democratic primary for New York State Senate District 12.

VoteHub projects Darializa Avila Chevalier to win the Democratic primary for New York U.S. House District 13.

VoteHub projects Celeste Maloy to win the Republican primary for Utah U.S. House District 3.

VoteHub projects Ben McAdams to win the Democratic primary for Utah U.S. House District 1.

VoteHub projects Cait Conley to win the Democratic primary for New York U.S. House District 17.