High tides peaked in the minor to moderate flooding range this morning from eastern Louisiana to the Pensacola area.

The worst of #TropicalStormBertha is offshore but #Bertha's bands are bringing stiff gusts to the #Florida Panhandle. Panama City Beach pier saw sustained winds of 45 mph and a 57 mph gust last hour. Coastal tropical-storm-force gusts continue overnight in the western Panhandle.

#TropicalDepressionTwo has gotten a bit better organized overnight, but is still struggling against dry air and shear. Likely to become Tropical Storm #Bertha today, but rainfall along #Florida Gulf Coast remains main impact. Full #TD2 forecast and discussion out around noon.

Update: #TropicalDepressionTwo has developed as of 11 am, and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the central and western Florida Panhandle. I'll have a #TD2 update for supporters this afternoon and for everyone tomorrow morning. Sign up here: weathertiger.substack.com/subscribe

#Invest91L in the eastern Gulf is organizing and NHC development odds are now 80%. Advisories/watches are likely to begin later today, and I'll have my forecast after those go out. In the meantime, #Florida can expect showers and storms today along the Panhandle and Peninsula Gulf Coast.

I made up some firework names for this column and now Google AI is convinced they are real products, to the point of making up imaginary visual effects and color characteristics for them. Which should I go with for my party? Like for #FeistyHobo, retweet for the #Defenestrator.

Huge declines in average local ACE per season in the Gulf and Caribbean going from moderate/strong La Nina to strong El Nino seasons. More of a mixed bag historically in the subtropical and eastern Atlantic.

Comparing strong Nino years and moderate/strong Nina years, there are ~3x as many Atlantic major hurricanes per season during Ninas. Also, almost no tropical cyclone activity at all in southern/western Gulf and western/central Caribbean during 7 strongest peak season El Ninos!

Also, as PTC 1 percolates, I will be discussing my outlook for the 2026 Hurricane Season in a webinar via Climate Central at noon today. It’s free and the link to sign up is in the QR code below.

Thanks! Obviously there are generous uncertainly intervals around even a skillful seasonal outlook, but we have managed to have the lowest average error of the regularly issued May/June ACE forecasts over the last 10 years.

This week's column also compares the various #hurricane season outlooks issued over the last few weeks. Overall, the now-official #ElNino and tepid Atlantic waters make for the lowest consensus forecast since 2015, with 20-50% less hurricane activity than average most likely.

Key considerations include include lukewarm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and the spring arrival of a massive El Niño in the Pacific. As shown below, El Nino hurricane seasons tend to have significantly less hurricane activity in the Gulf and Caribbean due to elevated wind shear.

WeatherTiger's May Hurricane Season outlook is out now, and continues to be cautiously optimistic news for the continental U.S. coastline. Our landfall risk model projects around a 65% chance of 1-2 U.S. hurricane landfalls in 2026, and about 30% lower net landfall activity than an average season.

Also: we like the moooooooon!!!

In terms of overall activity, the combination of a tepid Tropical/Eastern Atlantic and a burgeoning El Nino in the Pacific means that there is a 55% chance of 2026 falling in the least active third of hurricane seasons since 1950, and just a 10% chance of the most active third.

WeatherTiger’s first outlook for the 2026 hurricane season is here, and it's a refreshing break from the mostly active forecasts of the last decade. Our landfall risk model projects net Accumulated Cyclone Energy near CONUS of 2.5-3 units, about 40% less than the 1900-2025 mean.

Serious numbercrunching going on at WeatherTiger World HQ today in preparation for the release of our initial outlook for the 2026 Hurricane Season! Look for WeatherTiger's forecast to be out this Wednesday. It may even contain some rare good news for the year ahead for once...

While #Florida will not see snow/ice from this weekend's massive Winter Storm Xenawarriorprincess (name unofficial), a historic cold pattern follows. #Tallahassee may see 8 or more freezes in a row beginning Tuesday. That's only happened 12 times since 1892, most recently in 2010. #FLwx

Saw the rarest of winter beasts on snowy I-10 this morning: three FL Dept. of Transportation snowplows. They do exist! Click for a field report from "Operation Siberian Tiger:" a voyage into the savage, snowy heart of the tundras/caves of extreme northern #Florida: www.facebook.com/weathertiger...

Snow falling in the western #Panhandle with rain/snow line roughly from Santa Rosa Beach to just west of Marianna as of 8am ET/7 CT. Little hope of frozen precip in #Tallahassee so I'm chasing this one personally out to Marianna!

Very cold morning in #Florida, with #Tallahassee dropping sub-20 for the 1st time since Dec. 2022 and rural upper 20s for south to Lake Okeechobee. Still watching Sunday morning for a chance of light snow in the #Panhandle, followed by another deep freeze Monday morning. #FLwx

That change in the models makes the weekend forecast worth watching, as a substantial minority of GFS and European ensemble members do have at least some flurries north of I-10. I'll have an updated write-up about Florida's snow chances out tomorrow morning. #FLwx

Do you believe? I'm still skeptical of North #Florida's weekend snow chances, but model guidance has trended much stronger over the last day with the "kicker" disturbance over the Plains that could wring out a little snow behind a front Sunday morning across the #Panhandle. 1/2

People are saying that Russ Vought's brain is a solid chunk of lead. Many people are saying this.

Hurricane season 2025 ends in less than a week. The 2025 season has the distinction of having the lowest proportion of total Atlantic tropical activity (ACE) occurring near or over the continental U.S. of any year since 1950: a measly 0.2% versus a typical 4 to 5%.

As I laid out yesterday, this is a cataclysmic wind, surge, and flood event for Jamaica. I will have an update this afternoon on how landfall played out, but for now, please keep Jamaica in your thoughts and prayers. They need them.

#Melissa is hours away from making landfall in west-central Jamaica and continues to intensify. Minimum pressure has dropped to 896 mb, which makes Melissa the 7th Atlantic hurricane on to breach 900 mb. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 180 mph, tied for 6th-strongest ever in the Atlantic.

Hurricane Hunters confirming #Melissa is 2025's third Category 5 #hurricane, with sustained winds of 160 mph. Unfortunately, little weakening is expected before #HurricaneMelissa reaches #Jamaica tomorrow morning & #Cuba Wednesday. New forecast discussion out later this morning.

With the NHC predicting #TropicalStormMelissa to become a major #hurricane next week, it looks to do so further east than most late season Cat 3+ storms. The western/west-central Caribbean, where #Melissa will be, are most common locations for rapid intensification in late October or November.