Alex Wellerstein

@wellerstein

Nuclear historian. Professor at Stevens Institute of Technology. Visiting researcher at Nuclear Knowledges program, Sciences Po (Paris). Author of THE MOST AWFUL RESPONSIBILITY (2025). Creator of NUKEMAP. Blogging at .

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Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jul 11

But... but! It has been possible in the past (and is likely still allowable now) for a POTUS to pre-authorize the use of nuclear weapons under future circumstances. This is known as "pre-delegation" and it started under Eisenhower.

Draft of a pre-delegation order ca. 1956, created by the Joint Chiefs of Staff. "Instructions for Expenditure of Nuclear Weapons." Excerpt: "The president has authorized certain Commanders of Unified and Specified Commands to expend nuclear weapons in defense of the United States, its Territories, possessions and forces when the urgency of the time and circumstances clearly does not permit a specific decision by the President, or other person empowered to act in his stead. Such commanders will be called Authorizing Commanders. ... Each Authorizing Commander must insure that such delegation of authority is not assumed through accident or misinformation. Further, it should be regarded as an authorization effective only until it is possible to communicate with the President or other person empowered to act for him."

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jul 3

A rather innovative (if unintuitive) attempt to visually explain the concept of implosion... some assembly required... From an article about the possibility of smuggling atomic bombs in suitcases, Mechanix Illustrated, July 1954.

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jul 2

Study from 1978 on the role of truck stops in evacuating urban areas before a nuclear war... (a) what a subject to write +100 pages on and (b) what a graphic for the report...

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jul 2

(The cover from LIFE magazine — "FIRST PICTURES — ATOM BLASTS THROUGH EYES OF VICTIMS" paired up with "TV'S BIGGEST, PRETTIEST NEW SHOW." Dancers are from the latter...)

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jul 2

How a report from 1967 summarized the "weight" of two simulations of nuclear attacks against the United States. One is called CIVLOG 64 (which was generated by the DOD for exercise HIGH HEELS III), the other UNCLEX 66 (Unclassified Exercise). Also included are fallout maps for each...

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jul 1

I passed my A2.1 French class offered by the city of Paris they e-mailed me my "CERTIFICATE OF COMPETENCE" from the city. So it's official: I am competent...! At very basic French, anyway... (and now I can take A2.2 in the fall...)

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jun 26

There's a self-storage place in Jersey City that is next to a cemetery, and I will never find their big signs pointing to the graves not funny. Self-storage, indeed! This memory brought to you by my thinking about how useless most storage units would be in an apocalypse situation. Mostly junk...!

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jun 26

Finally, I asked it to show me what was inside the "peanut." Don't tell the NNSA — the true secret of one of the most sophisticated US thermonuclear warheads is revealed by to be... springs! 😂 Again, while it is certainly impressive it can do this at all... graded for accuracy, it gets an F. (3/3)

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jun 26

I suggested that the innards probably were more "peanut" shaped, and it revised it like the below. Which is interesting — I never told it that it was a warhead, but it seems to have associated the word "peanut" in this context with the famous North Korean "peanut" thermonuclear design. (2/3)

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jun 26

I asked ChatGPT to take this image of a Mk4 nuclear reentry vehicle with a blanked out W76 warhead and fill in the missing part. It responded with this — another entry in "plausible but not correct at all." (1/3)

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jun 24

because a) they are cooler, b) I'm basically a corpse already, or c) all of the above?

photograph of a skull in the Paris Catacombs that I took in May 2026

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jun 22

This conversation would have taken place only a few days after the Hyde Park Aide-Mémoire was signed by FDR and Churchill, which also expressed some doubts about whether the "bomb" would actually be used against Japan or not. No US official was aware of this document until after FDR's death.

The text of the Hyde Park Aide-Mémoire (18 September 1944), signed by both Churchill and Roosevelt:

TOP SECRET

TUBE ALLOYS

Conclusions of discussion between the President and the Prime Minister at Hyde Park, September 18, 1944.

1. The suggestion that the world should be informed regarding tube alloys, with a view to an international agreement regarding its control and use, is not accepted. The matter should continue to be regarded as of the utmost secrecy; but when a “bomb” is finally available, it might perhaps, after mature consideration, be used against the Japanese, who should be warned that this bombardment will be repeated until they surrender.

2. Full collaboration between the United States and the British Government should continue after the defeat of Japan unless and until terminated by joint agreement.

3. Enquiries should be made regarding the activities of Professor Bohr and steps taken to ensure that he is responsible for no leakage of information particularly to the Russians.

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jun 22

In September 1944, FDR asked Vannevar Bush whether they actually were planning to use the bomb against Japan, or whether they should just threaten to use it. Bush quickly tabled the question, promising a "very careful discussion" in the future. But neither FDR nor Truman had any such discussion.

Excerpt from a memo from Vannevar Bush to James Conant (23 September 1944), re a conversation that Bush had with President Roosevelt the day before:

"[...] At one time in the conversation the President raised the question of whether this means should actually be used against the Japanese of whether it should be used only as a threat with full-scale experimentation in this country. He did so, I believe, in connection with Bohr’s apparent urging that a threat be deployed against Germany, which would of course, I think, be futile. I stated that there were many sides to this question, that fortunately we did not need to approach it for some time, for certainly it would be inadvisable to make a threat unless we were distinctly in a position to follow it up if necessary, since a threat which had no effect and was not followed up would have the contrary effect to that intended, and that it seemed to me that the matter warranted very careful discussion, but this could be postponed for quite a time, and the President agreed that the matter did not now need to be discussed."

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jun 22

another diagram for the ages

A simple diagram of an "equation" and components. First is "stray bullet or shrapnel," then a plus sign, then a large, bulbous, "nuclear weapon," then an equal sign, and then a question mark.

From a document talking about "one point safety" — the conditions that a nuclear weapon should be able to endure without detonating.

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jun 21

*taps the graph of doom*

The so-called “graph of doom” from the American Historical Association, showing the number of new PhDs (orange) compared to the number of advertised academic jobs (blue) in the field of history. Source: AHA Jobs Report 2021.

(I believe the AHA stopped updating the Graph of Doom shortly after this point, because people were calling it "the graph of doom" and getting bummed out by it, and not recognizing that there were like lots of great things to do with a history PhD outside of academia, etc. etc. etc.)

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jun 21

saw this very stupid meme on LinkedIn presented quite unironically I find it hilarious to imagine that there are people who believe that academia was idyllic and perfect in 2016

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jun 17

That's interesting. Both of the covers also appear to have used specific nuke photos as their reference materials. Pulling Through is very similar to some shots of Plumbbob Smokey, while that one is clearly a riff on the French test "Licorne."

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jun 17

Some of these topics were also explored in classified studies. E.g. Bowen & Little's "History of the USAF Atomic Energy Program" (1959), or May's "History of the Strategic Arms Competition" (1981). Relationship between these and unclassified would be interesting to probe, as well as purpose.

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jun 16

(I realized it while on some calls today and I noticed that my headphones did not sound balanced unless I set them to about this setting. I then remembered I'd been occasionally hearing a sort of white noise in my left ear since Wednesday night, after I had a tough time clearing it while ascending.)

An audio "balance" setting with the center pulled a little less than half towards the left (meaning that my left ear is not hearing as well as my right).

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jun 16

I was reading about barotrauma (I think I have a ruptured eardrum — again) and ended up seeing a reference to the Valsalva maneuver, which is the fancy term for plugging your nose and mouth and breathing out. But the explanation I found on the Cleveland Clinic's page... raised some questions for me.

Excerpt from the Cleveland Clinic's page on the Valsava maneuver:

"What is the Valsalva maneuver?
The Valsalva maneuver is a quick, noninvasive method for a fast heart rhythm called supraventricular tachycardia (SVT). It’s sometimes the first choice of treatment before trying medicine or another procedure to get your heart rhythm back to normal. To do the Valsalva maneuver, you push air out, but with your nose and mouth closed (like having a bowel movement)."

I have highlighted the last parenthetical statement.

Another part of the page:

"How to perform the Valsalva maneuver

1. Sit down or lie on your back.
2. Take a breath.
3. Push that breath out against your closed mouth and nose while straining as if you’re trying to poop. Hold for 15 to 20 seconds.
4. Open your nose or mouth and breathe out."

I have, once again, highlighted the part about pooping.

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jun 16

"Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse" (1941) by the Polish-Jewish painter Marcin Kitz, who was living in Lvov at the time. In mid-1941, Lvov was taken over by the Germans. Within 2 years, Kitz was dead.

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jun 16

While I do not think that supporting Amazon is actually a positive thing (boo Bezos), I WILL just note that if you wanted a copy of my (award-winning!) book about Truman and the Bomb, THE MOST AWFUL RESPONSIBILITY, the Kindle version is currently on sale for a mere $1.99 / €1.72. amzn.to/3L1lMDH

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jun 16

graffiti from a preserved part of the Berlin Wall that works as well today as it probably did in the mid-1980s when it was written

Graffiti on a preserved part of the Berlin Wall that is currently maintained by the Dokumentationszentrum Topographie des Terrors on Niederkirchnerstraße in Berlin: "MADNESS."

Some of the graffiti on the wall that looks like it is about the same vintage was dated 1986, but I'm not sure there's any way to know exactly when this particular piece was added...

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jun 15

self-aware graffiti spotted in Potsdam, Germany, last week

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jun 12

RIP David Hockney. What a weird headline from CNN. Was he the world's greatest living artist, and then he was surpassed by someone else (who!??!)... or is he no longer the world's greatest living artist because he died...?

CNN headline: "David Hockney, once the world's greatest living artist, dies at 88"

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jun 9

pondering my orb

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jun 6

See also this photo-map from the post-attack assessment. You can see that about half of Nagasaki (in the lower part of the image) was not strongly affected. The main city center is in that part. The Urakami valley, where the bomb went off, was less built-up.

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jun 6

Topography of the cities. Nagasaki was a very "unideal" target from the perspective of city destruction. It did not lead to a firestorm, the total area of destruction was lower, and the main city center was not hit. Below are the cities and areas of destruction at the same scale.

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· Jun 6

This is so dark — the little "plus an atom bomb" footnote added to the number for total tonnage of bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in this table about the strategic bombing of Japanese cities. 97% of homes in Hiroshima estimated destroyed — higher than anything else on the list by far.

Data on the strategic bombing of Japanese cities during WWII, divided by city. Columns are names of cities, their pre-bombing (1944) populations, the total tonnage of bombs dropped, the percentage of "build-up" area destroyed, and the percentage of homes destroyed.

Among the interesting numbers:

- Tokyo (pop 6.6 million) had 16,561 tonnage of bombs dropped (max on the list for both), had 50.8% of its built-up area destroyed, and 57.44% of its homes destroyed.
- The highest percentage of built-up area destroyed was Toyama, with 99.5%.
- The highest percentage of homes destroyed is Hiroshima, with 96.91%. It is listed as having 68.5% of its "built-up" area destroyed, which is #3 in the overall chart.
- Nagasaki, by contrast, has 43.9% of the built-up area destroyed and 35.02% of the homes destroyed. (This is because of the topography of the city.)
- Hiroshima is listed as have 33 tons of total bombs dropped, and Nagasaki has 395 tons, and both have a footnote that reads as the bottom "plus an atom bomb."

Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein· May 31

I just end up feeling boiled after awhile. Sweaty. Gross. Sleeping with multiple fans on you is better than nothing, but not great. Today the temp has dropped dramatically, and it is such an improvement. Lyndon agrees btw (photo from our walk this morning).