Joel Wertheimer
@wertwhile
Civil rights attorney. COYS.
Hmm. Let's call 5 million the average annual rate of existing home sales plus 700k average new home sales so about 6 million home sales on average per year, and my guess is that's a fraction of people who are consistently looking.
To what extent to you think it can be explained by people considering a new house in their basket of goods rather than their current mortgage payment?
If build a model of economic sentiment using 1 and 3 year changes in inflation employment and income and interest rates there's still a gap to current economic sentiment but not when you add in a long term time trend. There's no vibecession, there's secular stagnation in vibes.
It's not a name recognition thing. A lot more independents say they'll vote for the GOPer over her and a sliver of Dems affirmatively say they'll vote GOP and Barnes does much much better among moderates. She's also viewed as much more liberal than Barnes. bsky.app/profile/brr....
I have to say not just consolidating around Mandela Barnes seems like a pretty big own goal but also I would not vote for Hong in the primary even if I were most ideologically aligned with her.
And here's Nate Cohn using NYT's data. I think you could do worse for 2026 than averaging their 2022 and 2018 numbers to create the LV screen though it interacts with demographics, for example age (from @bfschaffner.bsky.social et al), young people who say they'll definitely vote vote way less!
Here's some background on that from the 2024 election. bluelabs.com/dynamic-elec...
The underlying paper here - whose methods I think are quite dubious and show implausibly large effects - still shows climate as way less persuasive than talking about costs and health care and the economy.
The half life of the persuasion value of a political ad is extremely short. @chriswarshaw.bsky.social and others showed that nearly all of the value of ads comes at the end of the campaign. July is an absurd time to be spending money on political ads. chriswarshaw.com/papers/adver...
From what I can tell they've made about $2.7 million selling their lists to campaigns. They've got $20 million in revenue in Federal campaigns alone over the past six years. No idea about state level campaigns.
Oh COME ON. Moraff was fired by the Summer Lee campaign for sexual misconduct.
Kalshi bettors conditional win probabilities for each of the three major Maine Dem replacement candidates. Lots of noise, just bettors, etc, but Jackson's track record of running well in The County driving expectation he'd do best.
Third, turnout. In 2020 and particularly 2024, registered GOP turned out at a higher rate than Dems. In 2018 it was even, and even in 2022 it was even. Even without accounting for irregular voters shifting right, we should expect at least a point or two change from 2020 just from turnout rate change
Second, according to the NYT from 2020 to 2024, movers into Maine were D +39. Likely relatedly, Maine moved from 4.5 points left of the country in 2020 to 8.5 points left of the country in 2024, although demographics are likely part of the story there as white people swung the least in 2024.
First, Collins won "by 8.6", they never ran the RCV because she got more than 50% of the vote. But we know the other candidates said to rank Gideon second and we have some polling about how their voters would have gone. Using Emerson's poll the 8.6% goes down to 5.5%.
And we have a good reason for why: news organizations have access to massive amounts of data showing them that negativity drives viewership and clicks and they are all competing for viewership and clicks now.
This great paper captures that long term trend really nicely. It started around the 1970s and has just been going downward since in news coverage. This is replicated in many places but I liked the full history here for the prior stability. www.nber.org/system/files...
Fun with the NYT polls this morning: run a monte carlo using the margin of error in the polls to estimate the number of seats Democrats win and then do it with correlated error as well. 3 seats is the expectation each time even though Democrats are only ahead in 2 and tied in 1.
For horseracing and lotteries a lot is just straight from the states. One thing that's happened with gambling is that lotteries basically had to start competing and so their hold (profit margins) has gone down and sports betting has a lower hold than lottos and horseracing so losses are down
It went up a lot from 1960 to 2000 but if I had to guess there are huge measurement issues that allowed covering the lottery but not the numbers game and casinos etc but not mob tied bookies.
Americans have spent about 1% of their spending budget on gambling losses for the past 25 years
I don't disagree with Joey that there's a lot to do on gambling - have a lot coming on this soon! - but worth noting that gambling losses as a percentage of PCE is flat since 2019 because PCE is also up 60% since then.
Am I misreading that as a share of PCE gambling spending is actually down?
YouGov's personal finances measure and Michigan's personal finances measure would be nearly identical if Michigan adjusted for partisanship