If he wants to avoid being another Olmert, he needs to keep fighting Hezbollah, #Iran MOU be damned. See my piece in Polity on Olmert, audience costs and the Second #Lebanon War of 2006: jstor.org/stable/26358....

Second, principalist hardliners, such as Paydari partisans in the Majlis, the electorate, and the IRGC will point to such a concession as a humiliation on a par with 1827, 1872, Tobacco, D’Arcy Oil, the Anglo-Russian Convention, the tripartite division of #Iran during WWII & US support for the Shah.

Unpopular opinion: U.S. pressure on Iran may be making diplomacy harder, not easier. Just sat down with SecurityDilemma podcast to break down why — and what a smarter strategy could look like. 🎧 Listen : shorturl.at/UY2ut

Iraq disarmed → overthrown. Libya disarmed → Gaddafi killed. Ukraine disarmed → invaded. Iran watched all three. Now you know why 21 hours of talks in Islamabad produced nothing. My latest at 19fortyfive.com: www.19fortyfive.com/2026/04/goli...

Trump tweeted that the U.S. is now in the process of clearing out the Strait of #Hormuz. Yesterday’s @nytimes.com reported Iran was unable to locate the mines it planted (www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/u...). Anyone with any credible info?

Nasser lost Suez militarily & "won" strategically — exposing British decline. #Iran's nukes & missiles are degraded, but a $2M-per-ship toll on 20% of world oil and exposure of America's decline are the #IranWar's real legacies. America's Suez. #Hormuz, @notus.com, @economist.com, @thehill.com