Austin Mock
@amock419
NFL & CFB projections, draft analytics, and Rev Share/NIL modeling for @TheAthletic. The game isn't played on a spreadsheet — but it helps to have one. 📊
Jalen Carter and Brian O'Neill got new deals today...which one do you think ages best?
Caitlin Clark's offense is good but she can get to another level quite easily by cutting turnovers. The issue, though, is her defense. And maybe that is a product of Indiana's roster construction, but she needs to get better on that end of the court.
My model has Gonzalez getting $25M per year but I’m a bit more bullish on him as a player.
Mid-July recruiting rankings update: - Georgia and Alabama are outside the Top-10 - The state of Texas runs recruiting this year - Oklahoma and Florida putting together nice classes
Full time xG Map from @OptaAnalyst Feels like Spain has more than 1.2 xG but they do. Surely they'll find one against 10 men in extra time, right?
The War Room | Episode 2 Previewing the AFC West - Chiefs bounce back year - Chargers put up or shut up year - Broncos trying to repeat - Raiders a year away
The War Room | Episode 1 NFC North win totals -- my model vs. the market A quick breakdown of each team and what my expectations are for them in 2026.
This is total career value added: And no one is close to Brady. (going back to 2006)
Doing some historical QB analysis and this seems to be on the right track:
The USMNT is a virtual lock to play Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32.
We are currently monitoring a potential Argentina vs. Spain Round of 16 matchup...
My contract projections for Aaron Brewer: I’m going to blame being high on him on the outlier that is Tyler Linderbaum’s contract.
My World Cup positions from my model: Group wins Knockout Rounds Champion Who am I too high on?
I think this is a steal for the Steelers. Herbig hasn't been the top guy so that is a concern but he's been awesome when he's on the field.
Here is my current Jared Verse projection over the next few years. Cleveland is getting a very good player before touching the draft capital.
A.J. Brown can officially get traded this week, even today, but not before 4pm. Here's why:
I projected Derwin James at $25.4M/yr. He just signed at $25.2M/yr. Three years, $75.6M — almost exactly what my model had. Where I missed: the guaranteed money. I had $35M, the deal protects $57.5M. Overpay or fair value?
NCAA Softball Tournament Odds: - Oklahoma (shockingly) leads the way but Texas isn't too far behind - UCLA and Arkansas are legit threats as well - My model is much lower on Texas Tech than I'd like
Been doing some contract projection work and it's in the very early stages but here is what I had for De'Von Achane:
Mid-May 2027 Recruiting Snapshot - Florida and Oklahoma having a nice start - A bunch of usual foes except... - UCLA has a top-10 class right now
NCAA Women's Lacrosse Tournament Odds: - 7 of my model's Top-8 are in the quarterfinals (#9 made it instead) - Would be quite the upset if we didn't see North Carolina vs. Northwestern in the finals
NCAA Men's Lacrosse Tournament Odds: - A wide open field sees six teams with a 10% chance and another just a tad below that - Princeton and Penn State should be fantastic
NCAA Women's Lacrosse Tournament Odds: - Still UNC and Northwestern and then everyone else
NCAA Women's Lacrosse Game Projections: Who is getting upset? Who do I have too high or too low?
NCAA Men's Lacrosse Title Odds: - Princeton leads the way - Notre Dame and Virginia the next from a strong ACC
NCAA Women's Lacrosse Title Odds: - North Carolina and Northwestern are a step ahead of everyone else - Maryland, Stony Brook, and Johns Hopkins the next best