Aron Lund
@aronlund
Syria, Middle East politics, and Mediterranean security at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI). Fellow at Century International, the Centre for Syrian Studies, and the Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI). Occasional freelance writer.
In a new Presidential Online Rant, Trump reverses yesterday’s decision and announces a subtler extortion scheme where you must invest in the United States to transit Hormuz. (All hypothetical, of course, since he still can’t stop Iran from blocking the strait.) truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
Since a nuclear deal will likely require more time, if at all doable, this midterms-centric timeline should help Iran with the Hormuz issue in particular. Per the MoU, Iran’s suspension of its toll demand expires on Aug. 17—setting the scene for a crisis and major decisions in the following weeks.
The end of fighting & MoU do not seem to have made Trump’s Iran war any more popular, strengthening Iran’s hand in the post-MoU wrangling. Almost inconceivable now that Trump would return to war as the midterms approach. Lauren Fedor & Ian Hodgson, @financialtimes.com: www.ft.com/content/f1fe...
Tanker traffic has resumed after the USA-Iran deal but Gulf oil export remains 40% below pre-war levels, report @reuters.com’s Ahmad Ghaddar, Jonathan Saul, and Nerijus Adomaitis. www.reuters.com/business/ene...
Om fem svenska försvarsmyndigheter startar ett projekt, vilket blir det svenska namnet, marknadsfört mot svenska företag? Givetvis: From Innovation to Battlefield Demonstration Week. Behöver vi ens en försvarssektor om man hissar vit flagg för utlandet redan i pressmeddelandet?
Iran’s view on Hormuz and the MoU. Note: “Any external interference or attempt to establish parallel arrangements would violate the MoU.” It follows that a US-backed, non-IRGC-controlled route near Oman would be “parallel” to Iran’s own arrangements. en.irna.ir/news/8619921...
Ja, kära nån. Språkaktivistklubben på Rosenbad får gärna upplysa om huruvida det fortfarande är tillåtet att uttala Odessa och Kiev på svenska, eller om vi förväntas lära oss ukrainska uttalsregler nu.
Netanyahu says October 7 taught him that Israel must have buffer zones outside its borders, singling out Lebanon especially, and acts coy about proposals to depopulate Gaza and establish settlements there. www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...
Iran says it won’t meet with U.S. officials in Doha and lists U.S. commitments necessary for the process to advance, the “most critical” being a halt to Israel’s “military aggression against Lebanon,” whatever that may mean in the current context. www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/...
Arab Barometer surveys show that Iran’s regional popularity has increased after the US-Israeli attacks. Of the countries below, only Mauritania was polled after the start of the 2026 conflict. Future Gulf respondents will perhaps be less enthusiastic. www.arabbarometer.org/2026/06/chan...
On mines in the Hormuz Strait. Iran’s recent shipping attacks are presumably designed to force movement into the IRGC-supervised lane.
The United States says it interprets the MoU’s paragraph one line about Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity—which Iran fought to insert at the last moment—as meaning Hezbollah’s disarmament. x.com/lizarozovsky...
Israelis See Their Friendship With the U.S. Slipping Away @halbfinger.bsky.social @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/06/27/w...
Tasnim: Iran will freeze talks with the United States unless the MoU’s Article 1, on Lebanon, is implemented. Tasnim’s headline suggests that would mean Israeli withdrawal, although the article (and the deal itself) is ambiguous about how to interpret compliance. www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026...
After a spate of sectarian riots and attacks on alleged ex-regime people, Syria’s Supreme Fatwa Council reissues a 2025 fatwa banning individual acts of vengeance, insisting that while all perpetrators must be held to account, it is a matter for courts & competent authorities. x.com/althawra_sy/...
Ny FOI-rapport om en av världens mest segdragna konflikter, det halvsekelgamla kriget mellan Marocko och Polisariogerillan i Västsahara. Länge en helt stillastående konflikt, nu återigen aktivt krig – med Donald Trump i det diplomatiska förarsätet. @foiresearch.bsky.social foi.se/rapporter/ra...
3) End of war means he’s free to adapt to a big vibe shift in U.S. society: Israel is no longer a useful wedge issue and increasingly a burden. In the elections, Republicans must mobilize young conservatives (most of whom dislike Israel) and win undecideds (most of whom do, too).
Important on Syria’s documentation crisis by NRC. This is an area where international aid can do a lot of good with limited economic & practical input—reuniting families, facilitating returns, and helping Syrians rebuild their lives and nation. @nrc-global.bsky.social www.nrc.no/news/2026/sy...
The USA-Iran deal explicitly requires ending the war in Lebanon, acc. to @amwajmedia.bsky.social, which offers direct quotes. I think we can expect continued negotiations over how to interpret “ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.” amwaj.media/en/media-mon...
“Informed source” tells Tasnim that Iran got the United States to accept important last-minute concessions on Lebanon and Hormuz, clarifying, also, that Iran will absolutely be charging ships for passage in the future. www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026...
Defense Minister Israel Katz says Israel won’t withdraw from occupied southern Lebanon (or for that matter Gaza or Syria), declaring that the Israeli army will instead expel its civilian population and bulldoze the border towns. www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...
Trump on Israeli attack: ”It delayed the signing by a few hours. It was supposed to be now. Now it is scheduled for a few hours from now (…) Why did Bibi have to do a fucking attack? I was so pissed off. I let him know.” @barakravid.bsky.social @axios.com www.axios.com/2026/06/14/t...
Israel’s economy is doing pretty well, considering the circumstances. @jamesshotter.bsky.social & Mehul Srivastava, @ft.com www.ft.com/content/3cce...