Ben Ansell
@benansell
Professor of Comparative Democratic Institutions, Nuffield & University of Oxford, FBA. . BBC Reith Lecturer 2023. Host BBC Radio 4 Rethink. Columnist for Prospect. Director, Centre for Advanced Social Science Methods (CASSM).
Quick and dirty analysis - not really much difference among voters in each party by the type of constituency they live in (this is based around population density with rough rural/urban types in legend). To the degree urban voters are more left its because they vote Lab or Green
One useful way to think about this is that among younger voters of ALL parties, social liberalism is their defining difference from older voters. In aggregate the difference between 40-50 somethings and the retired is economic attitudes. Between younger voters and the middle-aged its social ones.
Depending on whether you assume Uniform National Swing (left) or Proportional Swing (right), you either get comfortable Labour majority or Lab-Lib coalition.
The Guardian giving Michael Olise an 8 out of 10 for last night's performance really does make me wonder exactly how a 9 or a 10 would be achieved... presumably might involve cooking an Ottolenghi recipe while on a blind date with George Monbiot?
On Farage's decision to turn to 'anti-white discrimination' I looked at this in a post last year. Here's what I found "every single group of Reform voters not only thinks white Brits are more discriminated against than ethnic minorities but they do so by over two points on the ten point scale."