Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible

@benwinkley

Mostly pushing Argus Media news from the oil and related markets. References to Dated, and dated references. Also general exhaustion and GIF-related add-ons. There's a hole in my head where information goes.

211 Siguiendo816 Seguidores2078 Publicaciones

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Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· 21d

Three figure Brent

screenshot of the oil price, showing a high today of $100/bl

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· 22d

Brent crude futures heading north again. Could see $100/bl before the weekend

A chart showing the price of front-month Ice Brent crude futures since the US-Iran war began

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· 23d

On the 47 bus to (Jude) Bellingham, a small dog is revered.

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· 23d

Goldman on crude price possibilities. The red line is what's happening now, continuing. Seems plausible as a base case, tbh

Chart showing four Goldman Sachs Brent oil price possibilities out to the end of 2027.

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· 24d

oh, cameras. Smile!

Ed Miliband is happy he no longer has to listen to the UK offshore oil and gas industry's lobbying

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· 24d

new foreign secretary looks thrilled

Ed Miliband declutches himself from the UK PM

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· 24d

refining margins go 🚀🚀🚀 redux

Benchmark refinery 3:2:1 crack spreads — a proxy for the margin from turning three barrels of crude into two of gasoline and one of diesel — have topped peaks last seen in 2022, when sanctions on Russia over its full-scale invasion of Ukraine triggered a refinery capacity crisis as the market struggled to replace cuts in Russian products exports (see graph). Argus 3:2:1 average crack spreads in the US Gulf coast, northwest Europe and Singapore surged past $50/bl this week — probably their highest ever.

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· 27d

Refining margins go 🚀🚀🚀

two headlines from Argus media:

Exports lift US Gulf coast cracks to record high

European diesel cracks at record high

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· 27d

Andy Burnham confirmed as leader of the Labour party and therefore UK prime minister from Monday www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-...

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· 28d

Letter from EE: we're upgrading your broadband service, you won't need to plug anything new in Parcel from EE: here's a new router for you to plug in Customer service at EE: well, that's weird. No we can't take it back, if you don't want it, just stick it in a cupboard. Cats: hey, box!

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· 29d

wrong answers only: is it Steve Craddock from Ocean Colour Scene?

FT headline: The former Britpop stalwart at the heart of Burnham’s machine

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· Jul 14

"based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership"

trump says he had highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· Jul 8

The heads of the IEA, IMF, World Bank, and WTO only issue joint statements when they are extremely stressed

Joint Statement by the Heads of the International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund, World Bank Group, and World Trade Organization.

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· Jul 7

hydration break

Indiana Jones and his Egyptian friend Sallah administer the grail to Dr Jones Sr

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· Jul 7

can you... do this?

Nigel Farage has announced he is resigning as an MP for Clacton to force a by-election.

“I will be putting my name forward to stand in this by-election, I will fight to win,” he said.

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· Jul 7

Farage:

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· Jul 7

Father Jack ponders whether that gobshite is ever off the air

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· Jul 6

Ineos Jim pitches for EU money www.ineos.com/news/ineos-g...

My second point refers to Project One in Antwerp, the first major chemical investment (€5 billion) in Europe for a generation. It produces the lowest carbon footprint ethylene in the world, the essential building block of the entire chemical industry. It has one third of the carbon footprint of other European ethylene crackers. It generates huge GVA for Europe.

This is exactly the type of investment project that Europe should welcome and be supporting. Sadly, this has not been the case. Project ONE has not received any EU funding, despite its strategic, economic, and environmental benefits. Shockingly, it was considered ineligible for the EU Innovation Fund.

In March of this year, you announced the ETS Investment Booster, with a budget of €30 billion. For Europe to maintain a viable chemical industry, this new scheme must be defined so that it can support projects such as ours, both in the planning stage, or in the execution phase. Europe needs to start giving the type of support to industry that our global competitors receive from their governments.

Yours sincerely

Jim Ratcliffe

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· Jul 6

Argus: a vulnerability in the Mideast Gulf crude export model is forcing producers to rethink how they supply oil and how to guard against future shocks. This may prompt them to change their sales strategies.

In a deficit market, producers could wait for customers to come hurrying back when the shooting stops. But crude markets faced oversupply even before the Hormuz crisis, and are in fact likely to return to surplus from this year's fourth quarter, Argus Consulting forecasts. Inventory depletion is supporting refined products markets, after import-dependent economies drew heavily on fuel stocks during the April-May price shock. But Dubai crude is nearly $9/bl lower than it was on the eve of the crisis and trading far below forward contracts.

This could present a moment for Opec output restraint, but one key Mideast member, the UAE, has now quit the group, raising questions about output discipline. The post-war demand environment is weaker, amplifying supply effects on pricing. Transport sector decarbonisation is accelerating. Currency weakness in Japan, India, South Korea and the eurozone is reducing the oil purchasing power of major import-dependent economies.

In an oversupplied market where freight is costly and transit and demurrage risks are elevated, loading prices become diminishingly important. To defend market share, producers may have to take positions in freight and storage markets in ways that have, traditionally, been the preserve of oil trading companies. That would not necessarily mean the end of the official pricing system, but might signal its evolution. The future may belong not to producers offering the most stable production, but to those offering the most reliable delivery.

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· Jul 5

Yes, moneymanager, yes.

FT reader comment: "Before retail is authorized to trade, they should have to be able to define Contango."

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· Jul 3

Also, let's not forget - let's *not* forget, Dude - that keeping wildlife, an amphibious rodent, for uh, domestic, you know, within the city - that aint legal either.

FT story headline: Would you eat a Marmot?

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· Jul 2

Notable details in this FT story about the "coming Falklands oil boom". If it happens, perhaps one day the islands might be remember the old country enough to send a task force to save us www.ft.com/content/ce25...

Navitas projects annual government revenues from Sea Lion, mostly corporate taxes and royalties, to peak at £280mn in 2034. If that happens, the islands would be receiving more annual income from oil and gas than the UK, where revenues are expected to decline to £100mn by 2031.

Falklands legislators are discussing a sovereign wealth fund to manage the windfall. A representative from Guyana, which has transformed from a low-income country to the world’s newest petrostate, visited the islands in April to share tips on riding out an oil boom.

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· Jun 26

Srs bsnss

The White House seems to prefer commotion and chaos to delivering meaningful, truthful information that serious business decisions can be made on.
The Iran conflict, i.e., blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is the wild card in speculating on future prices and development activity.

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· Jun 26

Wishing on a star

The prospect that Iran will comply and conform with any agreement, written or oral, is, at best, wishing on a fantasy. Correspondingly, it is unlikely that Israel will elect not to act in what it considers to be it's own interest because it could threaten the peace, which is akin to wishing on a star without a star. In effect, I believe the degree of uncertainty remains substantial.

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· Jun 26

You can't price a tweet.

Markets can price risk, but they can't price a tweet. The whiplash from diplomacy-by-social-media has become the single most unpredictable input in our planning. We don't need certainty about the future, just certainty that policy won't change between the morning and the afternoon.

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· Jun 26

Golly.

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· Jun 25

50 ways to leave your Opec. Indonesia is officially on a sabbatical. Ecuador had a 16 year leave of absence. Gabon and Qatar terminated their membership, while Angola merely withdrew www.opec.org/member-count...

from Opec's website:

Ecuador suspended its membership in December 1992, rejoined OPEC in October 2007, but decided to withdraw its membership of OPEC effective 1 January 2020. Indonesia suspended its membership in January 2009, reactivated it again in January 2016, but decided to suspend its membership once more at the 171st Meeting of the OPEC Conference on 30 November 2016. Gabon terminated its membership in January 1995. However, it rejoined the Organization in July 2016. Qatar terminated its membership on 1 January 2019. Angola withdrew its membership effective 1 January 2024.

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· Jun 25

one does not simply 'leave' Opec, says Sean Bean

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· Jun 25

Iraq: Nice cosy producer guild you have there. Shame if something happened to it

Reuters story, citing sources, says Iraq to consider all options if Opec quota is not raised, has considered leaving the group

Ben Winkley, rendered inadmissible@benwinkley· Jun 24

Iran will be pointing at the precedent of how Turkey manages the Bosporous.