Ben Zaranko
@benzaranko
Economics Editor, The Observer Sign up for my newsletter:
Scenario-based speculative fiction has been used for more than a century to highlight new military threats, capture the public imagination, and sharpen minds in policy circles. In today's newsletter, I ask why we don't see it used more often in economics. observer.co.uk/news/opinion...
People report the highest levels of economic insecurity in mid-life, as they get squeezed by mortgage and childcare costs. New research from @profjanegreen.bsky.social et al shows how insecurity can become a trap: financial setback -> less saving -> more insecure. observer.co.uk/news/busines...
Total unpaid council tax debt in England increased to £7.4 billion at the end of March, up from £6.6 billion a year earlier, in a sign that households are struggling with their bills. In inflation-adjusted terms, council tax arrears have increased by 20% over three years.
The experience of NHS continuing healthcare illustrates the difficulty of delivering a "national care service" with consistent standards - especially difficult if local councils remain responsible for social care. More in my weekly newsletter, available to read here: observer.co.uk/news/nationa...
Adult social care is mostly a local responsibility. The exception is NHS continuing healthcare, a national programme providing free care to those who qualify. It's the mother of all postcode lotteries. Application success rates in Manchester were 12x higher than in Gloucestershire in Q1 2026.
Barclays spending data shows that young people aren't shunning the pub, but they spend differently: in a larger number of smaller transactions. Could this be explained by the rise of zero-sum thinking, and a mindset shift away from the benefits of trust and cooperation?
My assessment of Andy Burnham's week one governing philosophy observer.co.uk/news/politic...
The rate of VAT on household electricity bills will be cut from 5% to 0% from 1 October. It is expected to take about £45 off the average bill, at a cost to the exchequer of around £850 million in 2026–27. A few immediate thoughts:
My assessment of Reeves' time as Chancellor, informed by the views of lots of smart people. observer.co.uk/news/politic...
Pernickety factual point. Government figures keep talking about how English NHS waiting lists are falling. They are not. They have increased in the last two months (up by 172k since March). They've fallen since Labour entered office, but that's not the same thing.
An ageing population will mean higher spending on pensions and the NHS, which risks putting the UK national debt on an unsustainable long-term trajectory, per the OBR. The government should consider shifting the balance of tax towards older people, to support revenues as the population ages.
This is a very fun piece on the different camps in the billionaire tax debate. I particularly liked this paragraph 👇 “They are probably French”
Great chart from the OBR. If the low productivity trends of the last 15 years persist, someone born in 1991 will experience no more cumulative GDP growth over their lifetime than someone born in 1901.
An incredible detail in @paticlarke.bsky.social's piece about the battle to provide tech solutions to the UK government observer.co.uk/news/technol...
In short: the fiscal devolution growth argument has much to be said for it, but a lot will depend on specific policy design. Open question: will the new government move gradually, to iron out issues, and build local capacity? Or will it go big and radical? [3/4]
Giving local governments a certain stream of future tax revenue, and allowing them to borrow against it, could allow local investment in infrastructure. But that means (HM Treasury) accepting less control of borrowing, and accepting that things will sometimes go wrong. [2/4]
Greater fiscal devolution within the UK could promote economic growth, but has its challenges. Giving mayors a % of local tax revenues would give them more incentives to make growth-friendly decisions, but might mean "postcode lotteries" and wider gaps between regions. [1/4]
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The decision over what to do with Thames Water will be an important early test for the Burnham government - not just of its approach to utilities, and its commitment to public ownership, but of its broader economic strategy. Me for the @observeruk.bsky.social:
I stumbled across this fascinating story about the government's failed efforts to issue a £350m war loan in 1914, and the subsequent Bank of England cover-up to avoid a propaganda disaster. Question is, would patriotic investors hoover up war bonds if they were issued today?
Another plug for this, endorsed by my colleague @basialc.bsky.social as unexpectedly funny
I've reviewed @soumayakeynes.ft.com and @chadpbown.com's new book, How To Win A Trade War, for the Observer (link below). If you like your economics explained via irreverent metaphor, this is the book for you. It's particularly good on the underlying causes of the tensions between the US & China.
Key insight there is that jobs are made up of a bundle of tasks, and just because AI can do some of them doesn’t mean the entire job will disappear. Messy jobs which require you to juggle lots of tasks and respond to unpredictable challenges and frictions are probably safe.
Fatima the ballerina came to mind when I was thinking about jobs in what Alex Imas calls the “relational sector” – where human involvement is an intrinsic part of what makes the good or service valuable. Training as a ballerina might be a good bet in a world of AI!
Which jobs will be safe in the world of AI? I’ve written about this for today’s @observeruk.bsky.social (link below). While reading and thinking about it, I was reminded of the ad below, launched by the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre in 2020.
You’ve probably heard of Henry – the High Earner, Not Rich Yet. But what about his nemesis, Richard – who Retired In a Comfortable House And Refuses to Downsize? There are quite a lot of Richards out there. They’re the subject of my column for today’s Observer. observer.co.uk/news/busines...