Bill Comeau 🇨🇦
@bill-comeau
Canadian. Statistician. Math. Show me the evidence. I've been known to dwell on little things like pandemics, population health, preventable deaths, disinformation, authoritarians, kleptocracies, annexation, and protecting democracies. Also, Leafs & Jays.
Official response from the Government of Canada to Trump's latest #tariffs in violation of the CUSMA trade agreement he signed. "Canada will take ... any measures necessary..."
Fact for today: 9 of the 10 worst #wildfire years in Canada were dryer and hotter than normal. Canada's mean temperature continues to rise, raising the risk of abnormal wildfire years. Climate scientists have linked this climate change warming to fossil fuel emissions. www.canada.ca/en/environme...
Facts for today: Two charts on Canada's fire season 1/ Fire season temperature change in Canada (Berkeley Earth) #Canada
Fact for today: Press Freedom in 2026 as seen by Reporters Without Borders. #Canada is rated "Satisfactory Situation" (ranked 20th). The US is rated "Problematic Situation" (ranked 64th). Norway is #1. #CanadaStrong source: rsf.org/en/index
While we're on the topic of sanctioning neighbours over air pollution, perhaps we should include the significant damage caused by US cross-border industrial pollution, pollution that has damaged the health of millions of Canadians for decades.
Canada has a responsibility to expand firefighting capabilities and combat wildfires, primarily caused by storm lightning and a hotter boreal forest. That forest spans 1.9 million square miles and is mostly in the more remote north. Virtually impossible for humans to control all boreal wildfires.
Why is #Canada safer than the US? Firearm homicide rates per 100,000 in the US (blue solid line) and Canada (red solid line). Note that non-firearm homicide rates are similar in Canada and the US (dashed lines). The large difference shown in overall homicide rates is related to firearm use.
Air quality due to smoke over Toronto and surrounding area: not great. source: MSN weather
#Facts that are not Conservative talking points. The US ranks 2nd in average wealth per adult in 2026, Canada 13th. However, average wealth is skewed heavily by the small percentage of Americans who hold much of the wealth. If we look at median wealth (50% point), Canada ranks 7th, the US 28th.
#Facts that are not Conservative talking points. #Canada ranks 3rd in the 2026 Quality of Life rankings. The US ranks 27th. #CanadaStrong
Trump imposed punishing tariffs on Canadian aluminum in 2025. Canada is now pivoting to export aluminum to other countries. This chart by Statistics Canada shows "Exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum alloys". If the US doesn't want our critical resources, others will. #CanadaStrong
Health stat for today: 4,394* died of #suicide in Canada in 2024 (11.8 per 100,000). The rate was highest for men aged 45-64. Men are approximately 3x more likely to commit suicide but this ratio rises to about 5x for the elderly. #mentalhealth *prelim data health-infobase.canada.ca/mental-healt...
Temperatures in Paris France. Europe does not have widespread air-conditioning so we should see these increasingly common anomalies as serious public health events with increasing death tolls.
The media and analysts are missing the point on the latest US inflation rate of 4.2%. If you remove extraordinary pandemic-related inflation, then 4.2% is the highest reported inflation rate since the 2008 financial crisis. But this one is driven by one individual sitting in the White House.
You may be starting to see media reports of a "Super El Nino". A "very strong El Nino" may peak later in 2026/early 2027 but there's still lots of uncertainty. This NOAA chart helps describe the current probabilities and strength categories based on sea temps. www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
The Far Right led by Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson promised a better economic future if the UK split from the EU. I'm sure we will see the same from #Alberta separatists. But we do know what happened with Brexit: the promises were empty and hurt the UK. #CanadaStrong ukandeu.ac.uk/brexits-impa...
Immigration was a major issue during a 2016 Brexit campaign that preyed on emotions, leveraged disinformation, and made grand promises. The UK formally left the European Union in 2020. Here are the actual migration statistics. Think twice about RW separatist claims and promises. #CanadaStorng
Trump and many followers have built up their own MAGA version of Jesus Christ. He's more macho, war-friendly, and an icon for white christian nationalists. There is a parallel. The Nazi's promoted "Positive Christianity" with Jesus as an Aryan fighting Judaism and Hitler as a messianic leader.
Not sure what your point is. Here's my understanding: - grocers by nature of the commodity and VOLUME have thin profit margins, typically 1.7 - 22.2% - Loblaws net profit margin has grown from a pre-pandemic range of under 2% to an estimated 4.2% at YE 2025 - 5Y return is in the top 10% of industry
Example: Here's Canada's Consumer Price Index for food. Note the sharp rise during the pandemic and how that new level remains. Food prices continue to grow from that new level.
Trump and/or his orbit have many ways to create wealth while he is in power, including the use of insider information. It would be entirely unsurprising to me if that happened here. Occam's razor applies. www.ft.com/content/1171...
While it is true Ontario Canada has seen a rise in covid-19 hospital cases over the Fall and Winter months (left chart), it is also true that the level of Fall/Winter hospitalizations has dropped substantially from previous years (right chart). #covid
Followup: Ontario Canada's influenza high season did in fact follow Farr's law as expected. I wore an N95 mask for medical appointments during the extreme stage of the flu season. It's only sensible to do so, even if not mainstream in Canada.
US prime lending rate history. The first M.E. oil crisis was 1973-74, followed by the energy crisis and Iran hostage crisis in 1979-80.
The NY Times Editorial Board has updated its Autocracy Index for the US. The index measures the descent from democracy to autocracy across 12 dimensions. (Recall LY, I pointed to Levitsky's historical work on "competitive authoritarianism" - the intermediate stage before autocracy.)