I’m home

Thought about going to the Utah Championship KFT event this weekend, then I checked the weather. Never mind.

What goes up must go down

R3 3M Open weather and hole locations: Good weather should help course open up a bit. Here’s my predictions for tomorrow: -1.4 average score 4.3 birdie or better average 2.3 bogey or worse average

R2 3M Open weather and hole locations: Difficult to predict how the course plays tomorrow since the course played uncharacteristically difficult tomorrow. Here’s my guess -0.8 scoring avg 3.9 birdie or bettter avg 2.8 bogey or worse avg

R1 3M Open weather and hole locations My predictions: -2.4 to par scoring average 4.80 birdie or better 2.2 bogey or worse

I appreciate that the Open app uses more descriptive terms than just “unknown” for errant shots because I got a good chuckle out of seeing that DeChambeu hit it into “trees”

Weather and hole locations for R4 of the Genesis Scottish Open. The course opened up for round 3 and played the easiest of any day so far. My predictions: -0.4 average score 3.3 birdie or bettter average 2.9 bogeys or worse average

Weather and hole locations for R3 of the Genesis Scottish Open. Much more difficult weather tomorrow, but the course could play softer with some rain. There is no clear advantage to AM or PM My predictions: +0.2 average score 3.20 birdies or better 3.60 bogeys or worse

Weather and hole locations for R2 of the Genesis Scottish Open There is a strong AM wave advantage, which could be almost an entire stroke advantage Predictions: -0.3 average strokes 3.65 birdies or better 3.15 bogeys or worse

Sometimes I get frustrated how easy professional golfers make it look. Then I saw that 10 professional golfers have hit 4 GIR in a round at Muirfield Village Golf Course over the last 3 years and I feel better

Been a little bit since my model got a winner, but it got Henley this last weekend 🎯 Of course of the golfers my model produced, I chose Fowler as my one and done

10 years ago, a security guard let me past to take a picture with Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain at the MLS all Star game. He signed my jersey and that night I woke up multiple times and checked my jersey because it didn’t feel real. I’ve had that same unreal feeling for the last 24 hours.

I run a T-test for every course every week to see which stats “don’t matter” for finishing in the top 20. (If they have a p-value >0.05, I remove them from my model). I only used data from the 2018 BMW, but it’s interesting my stats suggest that drive accuracy doesn’t matter

This post from last week was accidentally the perfect tweet for this week. Did JJ Spaun win because his name starts with a J? No. Does it fit the trend? Yeah. But does that trend actually matter? Nope. I almost want to reply to all these trend threads with “correlation does not equal causation”

My model didn’t get a winner this week, but it got the 2nd, T3, and two T6. Super happy for Gary Woodland, I’m content my model didn’t get the winner this weekend because he won

My model got another winner! That’s 4/10 so far this year! Overall great week for the model. Everyone made the cut, and it caught a top 5 from Xander

R4 Valspar Championship weather and hole locations: Light wind and average difficulty hole locations will likely make the average score be just below par. Average score prediction: 70.9 strokes Average birdie or better prediction: 3.30 Average bogey or worse prediction: 3.15

Oof, the worst week for my model so far this season. First time I haven’t had a top 10 finisher. Still not upset with the results, but not sure my model was predictive at all this weekend

Round 3 The PLAYERS weather and hole locations: Calmer weather and kinder hole locations should lead to the lowest average score so far Average score prediction: 71.4 strokes Average birdie or better prediction: 4.00 birdies or better Average bogey or worse prediction: 3.20 bogeys or worse:

Weather and pin location for R2 of THE PLAYERS. My predictions: Weird wind pattern that will make course play easier, but scoring really depends on if there are preferred lies My projected average score: 72.2 My projected birdie or better avg: 3.75 My projected bogey or worse avg: 3.40

Weather and pin location for R1 of THE PLAYERS. My predictions: Extreme weather conditions are going to push scores well above par. My projected average score: 73.0 My projected birdie or better avg: 3.20 My projected bogey or worse avg: 3.70

Here’s my list for the PLAYERS: Not as many smaller name golfers on my list this week, but I am not surprised given TPC Sawgrass

Oh boy, we might be looking at a Monday finish at the PLAYERS

Here’s some other lists from this year. I didn’t start taking this screen shot until the Farmers Insurance Open In order, this is the Cognizant, Genesis Invitational, WM Phoenix Open, Farmers Insurance

I create a weekly list of golfers I like for PGA events based on historical Shots Gained data, and it got its 3rd winner of the season last week! Surprised that the two worst golfers in the list were Fleetwood and Matsuyama.

Here’s the average score, birdie or better average, and bogey or worse average per round for the last 3 years of the Cognizant Classic: Since a move to a par 71 in 2024, the course has played at least a stroke under par every round

In my weekly course preview, I run t-tests comparing golfers who made the cut but finished outside the top 20 vs golfers who finished in the top 20. This helps determine which stats are not predictive. So far this year, the Cognizant has the most noise of any tournament this year

Anyone down for a hole in 1 on the par 4 10th tomorrow?

A few nuggets from my WM Phoenix Open preview, which was available to all my DubClub subscribers My golfer watch list ended up picking the winner, 3 top 5 finishers, a top 10, and 10/11 made the cut I also correctly picked a Scottie top 5 finish and Gotterup win (ignore the bit about Cam Young)