Motorhead
@bradmunchen
Auto industry expert here to shitpost about Musk, Tesla & other frauds. More serious industry analysis can be found here:
Of the 3,529 incidents Tesla has filed to date with NHTSA, the word "Unknown" is used 12,835 times, on top of 1000s of redactions. This also raises serious questions about NHTSA's oversight. If FSD Supervised is 7x safer than humans, as Tesla claims, what do they have to hide? 4/4 $TSLA
In the 24 cases below with pre-crash speed redacted: 14 deaths & 8 serious injuries. In 16 of these, Tesla claimed no telematics/EDR data available. A jury ruled Tesla pay $243M for wrongful death in 2026, after finding Tesla had crash data they initially said was deleted. 3/4 $TSLA
93% of ADAS crashes filed by Tesla have the injury severity fields marked as "unknown", vs Waymo at only 1.5%. In the 22 crashes below, with 100% of crash partners redacted, only 4 injuries are disclosed. These were all likely crashes where a Tesla plowed into parked/stopped cars. 2/4 $TSLA
I've never seen the ball-gargling cult of Musk in as much raging disbelief until China showed they too can land rockets, most likely at lower costs. 😂 Needless to say, the $28.5 trillion "TAM" that SpaceX mentioned in their IPO docs is about to get carved up. Time to redo your DCFs. $SPCX $TSLA
The cult of Elon Musk is on a level of stupidity and pettiness that most rational human beings can't comprehend. $SPCX $TSLA
A few weeks after this lame pump, Tesla settled out of court with the family of a pedestrian killed by a Model Y on FSD that couldn't see her because of the sun's glare. $TSLA
Since Musk defanged NHTSA's reporting rules for Autopilot/FSD crashes, you can't assess "Serious or Worse Injury" crashes anymore, which Waymo reports (92% of Tesla's crashes say "Unknown"). This is straight-up fraud to hide FSD deaths, as 97% of Tesla's crashes have airbag deployment. $TSLA
Musk nixed the $25K "Model 2" in 2023, opting instead for the Cybercab, which has no steering wheel or pedals. The Cybercab has no buyers, while the Jeff Bezos-backed "Slate" at $25K will have many in Q4. Given EV affordability issues, Bezos could seriously damage Tesla's US sales. $TSLA
When you ask for evidence of how Musk profited from his $290 million donation to Trump's 2024 bid for the presidency, it's pretty unsettling. $TSLA $SPCX
If it goes through, this will be history's most fraudulent IPO: $GOOG says they'll rent $920M worth of xAI's idle GPUs just 1 week pre-IPO. Why? $GOOG doesn't need GPUs from xAI. 😂 They do need exit liquidity, though, as they own 5% of SpaceX, with a 17,900% Return on Investment $TSLA $SPCX 2/2
Guess what: none of them are Tesla Semis. 🤣 $TSLA www.wsj.com/business/log...
Andrew Ross Sorkin is the most overpaid & overvalued financial journalist on Wall Street. This morning, he said that SpaceX could use its "high share price" to acquire Tesla. The only thing that SpaceX will use its "high share price" for is to finance xAI's capex. $TSLA SPCX
In the SpaceX S-1 for US investors and its recently published prospectus for EU investors, there's not a single mention of this. Not one. There's a major class action in the US, and mounting probes in the UK, Ireland, and the Netherlands. Link to CNBC's story here: www.cnbc.com/2026/05/07/f...
Did Fidelity do anything like this 5 days before Facebook's IPO in 2012? Did Facebook allocate 30% of its IPO to retail investors & lower the minimum investment level from $500K to $2K 5 days before the IPO back then? Asking for a friend. $SPCX $TSLA $META
The SpaceX IPO is the most overhyped stock market event in history: 1) The "passive squeeze" is a 1-day event of ~$35B on Day 5 (FTSE & VTI), and $50B (NDX) on Day 15. $TSLA trades $60B/day on average. 2) It may not even happen if France does something really funny (put a Red Notice on Musk).
Musk's first words on the stand are such lies that it's hard not to vomit. "Charity"? Lmao. He's given $7.95 billion to the Musk Foundation, which frequently loses its tax-exempt status for not donating enough. By contrast, MacKenzie Scott has donated over $26 billion so far.
The next Tesla catalyst is June's SpaceX IPO. $TSLA has the highest level of retail investors vs others, which is why it'll get sold off: 5yr returns on $TSLA are lower than the S&P 500 & the Nasdaq 100. Retail will gladly swap into SpaceX if given the allocation. 6/7
$TSLA is worth 38% more than the Top 15 car/EV makers in the world, while they produce over 40x the vehicles that Tesla does per annum. Valuations didn't matter for $TSLA but they will, once retail investors realize they're bag holders. $TSLA should be worth $26/share. 5/7
$TSLA also faces huge legal risks from Musk saying that FSD "HW3 simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD". It's worse: Tesla removed redundant ECUs during the chip shortage from all cars shipped to regions with low FSD take rates (see table below). 4/7
Can Tesla stay solvent as long as its "AI" can't generate cash? Doubtful. Lots to unpack from the $TSLA Q1 results & call. 🧵 Most importantly, Musk literally said that FSD isn't safe enough yet, & robotaxis would *probably* be material to profits "next year". 1/7
CSAM lawsuits against xAI from 12 jurisdictions worldwide are a small price to pay for SpaceX investors, as it's for the sake of orbital data centers. $TSLA www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-ne...
This is Tesla, pathetically desperate, while Musk can't pump the stock during SpaceX's "secret IPO" procedures. After one look, I couldn't read it.
Wouldn't it be hilarious if this were a jab by Boston Dynamics at Musk's failed "Optimus" humanoid project? 😂
🚨Scoop: Tesla is exploring the roll out of a smaller & cheaper SUV than the Model Y. Reuters implies Tesla may be easing up on its "robotaxi" goals. NHTSA confirms no permit for the Cybercab's "no steering wheel, no pedals" design despite launch plans this month. www.reuters.com/business/aut...
It took SpaceX rocket scientists this long to figure out that xAI is the dumbest AI around, and was forced down their throats at a 110% premium to OpenAI and Anthropic's valuations. Wait till the CSAM lawsuits start pouring in from around the world. www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-re...
If "the statistics are unequivocal", why not publish them? That would be the biggest stock pump for $TSLA since its IPO. The fact that Tesla hides FSD crash data even from NHTSA proves they're far behind Waymo, which had 3rd-party peer reviews. FSD "hopium" is $326/share.