Ben Walker
@bwalker
Co-Founder of @britainelects.com | walker@britainelects.com
Brand Burnham at 35% positive, 24% negative according to Britain Elects poll tracker britainelects.substack.com/p/how-popula...
Putting Brand Badenoch into perspective, staved the Tories from oblivion, but... www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
Well it's happening all the same on here lad, so don't play dumb. You confused BE for someone else, that's ok
Gorton and Denton by-election forecast. The three charts you need to know: www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
Rapidly discovering you're not best keen on me here, but I do post turnout?
A likely 75 per cent of votes have already been counted and Mamdani's on course to win with half the vote. If the figs stay then Silwa has undergone some extensive squeezing to Cuomo's benefit. But Mamdani has outperformed the polls too.
An election petition is being heard because the last placed candidate of the Runcorn by-election regards it as a statistical impossibility he could have got 50 votes in two separate elections.
Reform opens up a 4pt lead; Tories below 20%. Britain Elects poll tracker britainelects.substack.com/p/whos-ahead...
*looking at divisions which changed hands* Oh, there's a Labour one over there. What happened? *looks* ah
New post: what's up and where #LE2025 www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
Small additions, but important additions, to this year's local election service @britainelects.com
New post: Australia! Here is a country where the opposition Liberals (conservatives) have abandoned precision attacks on the cost of living to tack right on culture wars. It may have cost them the election. Read: www.newstatesman.com/internationa...
This will be put to the test in Runcorn and Helsby. Will Grn and Con voters move to Labour to stop Reform? Or is a Farage win not quite so toxic as people think? www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
Last night's council by-elections, this morning's write up. Reform and Labour do as well as the national polls imply. Tories outperform in Hyndburn: britainelects.substack.com/p/labour-rou...
Cash strapped councils pay a premium to buy up land for development. Rooted in a Con gov decision made in the 1950s: www.spectator.co.uk/article/we-s...
I've started modelling my general election forecast onto wards, and seeing how they compare to recent council by-elections. And it's not... terrible? www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
I think claims by the way that Americans / untoward sorts are swamping the petition with fake names and addresses would at least show up in the changes since the weekend. They're not. Some v interesting growth in the most rural of England, though. www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
This is a Reform petition, not a public petition. www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
So to summarise - the first 150 days for Labour in the council by-elections: Worst drop-off in support we've seen for quite some time Masks how big a rise Reform is making Worse loss of seats when compared to 1997 But not guaranteed indication of long term feeling. Cons lost more in 2010! Fin
In historic terms it's one of the worse starts. Compared to 1997 it's bad. But it's not a telltale sign that you're going to do badly at the next general election. www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
"General Election Now" petition signatures vs Reform vote by parliamentary constituency