Bill McBride
@calculatedrisk
Author of Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter at and Economic Weekly at
Major Hurricane Genevieve off the coast of Baja California www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...
"In the week ending July 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 187,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 208,000 to 209,000." Well below consensus.
MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 0.2 percent higher than the same week one year ago." Weak.
6% to 7% 30-year fixed rates - the New Normal www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
"In the week ending July 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 208,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 215,000 to 216,000." Lower than expected
MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 2 percent lower than the same week one year ago." Weak.
Unemployment Claims: "In the week ending July 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level." This was higher than consensus expectations.
Used car prices: “The first half of the year is officially in the books, and wholesale values finished on solid footing. The Manheim Index closed June up 2.1% against last year ... The story of the first half is a strong tax-refund season that pushed values to levels we haven’t seen in a few years"
MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week and was 5 percent higher than the same week one year ago." Still weak.
This may from the Mortgage Monitor really shows the geographic differences we are seeing in the housing market (with prices)
Heavy Truck sales in June at 426 thousand SAAR down 6% Year-over-year
In the week ending June 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level.
"Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+57,000) and the unemployment rate (4.2 percent) changed little in June." Well below consensus and previous 2 months revised down sharply.
6% to 7% is the likely normal range until the next period of economic weakness. www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
"In the week ending June 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level." Below consensus estimate
30-year mortgage rates back to the devil's number ... www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
"In the week ending June 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 226,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 229,000 to 230,000." Slightly above consensus estimates
The U.S. SPR declined another 9 million barrels last week (as of June 12th) and it is now at 340 million barrels. www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/his... The low following the Russian invasion of Ukraine was 347 million barrels - and the SPR is now below that level today and at the lowest level since 1983.
MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago." Still weak.
Builder Sentiment Remains Weak Amid Affordability Concerns "Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell two points to 35 in June, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today." Below consensus.