🍾 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍾 My take on private investments www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-privat...

Woof, what a chart. $GOOG just posted its first quarter of negative free cash flow in at least 10 years.

🐂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🐂 This bull market has been the product of a handful of stocks pulling the S&P 500 higher. Yet this year, nearly half of S&P stocks are outperforming the index. Are we finally in the midst of a strong, broad, raging bull? www.optimisticallie.com/p/a-full-bull

If inflation is a risk you’re worried about, stocks can be your antidote. Inflation may eat into your budget, but it also helps companies build pricing power. Be both an employee and a shareholder. Annualized change in the S&P and CPI by decade:

🎆 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🎆 Why I'm still heavily invested in America: www.optimisticallie.com/p/united-sta...

📢 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 📢 Kevin Warsh — the new Fed chair — is a man of few words. He's actively reining in Fed communication, a tool his predecessors have leaned on heavily (esp Jay Powell) And your portfolio is part of this experiment. optimisticallie.com/p/a-smaller-...

Happy Fed day to all who observe. Gone from the podium, but forever in our hearts.

🔥 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🔥 We all know temperatures rise in degrees. Inflation does as well. And there are differences between today's hot, hot heat and the market-melting scorcher that was 2022 www.optimisticallie.com/p/hot-hot-heat

Prices are growing faster than paychecks. American wallets are getting squeezed. This is a fact. How much will this matter to the vibes? A lot. How much will this matter to economic momentum? TBD.

🍗 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍗 AI companies are shoving a monstrous amount of new shares down our throats. SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs alone could exceed the strongest year for IPO issuance in recent history. Can we actually swallow all of this? www.optimisticallie.com/p/all-you-ca...

There are a lot of eye-popping stats out there about the massive SpaceX IPO My favorite: $SPCX's $75 billion float alone would be equal to the second-strongest year for all IPOs since the turn of the century

We talk a lot about the retail renaissance post-COVID, but I don't think we've marveled enough at the popularity of leveraged funds, with volumes that have grown 3x as fast as the stock market and 2x as fast as the options market

Trading activity (or turnover, share volume times share price) in leveraged ETFs and ETNs reached a record $45.9 billion in March Those of you who thrive in market chaos are absolutely feasting in this particular moment

Younger Americans are struggling through an affordability crisis. Their parents are sitting on $90 trillion in cash, investments and home equity, with many of them waiting until they die to pass it on. Why aren't more people giving while living? www.optimisticallie.com/p/giving-whi...

Friends, meet Theodore Patterson Cox & Isabel Marilyn Cox, born January 12. Everybody is happy, healthy and thriving (although Mom and Dad are admittedly exhausted). I wrote a stream of consciousness on some of the most important work I'll ever do. www.optimisticallie.com/p/theo-and-i...

I'm on maternity leave, and OptimistiCallie is on a publishing hiatus. But I wanted to leave you a gift in one of my most-read posts of all time during a season to focus on all that really matters 🎁 www.optimisticallie.com/p/all-that-r...

PERSONAL(ISH) NEWS: I hate slop research. And I'm building a research business with @thecompoundnews.bsky.social optimisticallie.com/p/slop-resea...

🎶 Do you have to? do you have to? do you have to let it linger? 🎶

🍂 ATTENTION ADVISORS 🍂 We're conducting research on how you talk about legacies, estates and inheritances in your practices. Give us 5 mins of your time, and you'll be entered into a raffle for a $100 Amazon gift card. Take the survey HERE: qualtricsxmdbbjzg4m7.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...

The unemployment rate moved higher in September, mainly because people permanently lost their jobs. In fact, permanent job losers were the largest contribution to the 12-bp rise in unemployment. Higher unemployment can be good or bad. This is bad.

🔭 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🔭 The themes/stories I'm watching as we turn the calendar No targets. No predictions. No marketing gimmicks. Just the good stuff. www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-2026-o...

🤑 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤑 The economy normally drives the stock market But is the stock market driving the economy now?! I debunked the latest narrative about the power of the wealth effect vs. the job market www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-wealth...

😵‍💫 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 😵‍💫 Life is a little insane for me atm, so I wrote a little bit about how purpose, process and progress help keep me/maybe you anchored in your investing. Sanity over everything, folks. Even returns. www.optimisticallie.com/p/how-to-inv...

MY LATEST FOR @businessinsider.com Millennials and Gen Zs share an awful bond — we both had to enter adulthood during a crisis. I wrote about market cycles, financial trauma & millennials' improbable comeback to give Gen Z some perspective on what's ahead: www.businessinsider.com/millennials-...

🤖 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤖 The biggest tech hyperscalers could spend *$450 billion* on AI next year. Can they afford this hefty shopping spree? Yes. But they'll have to accept some undesirable tradeoffs, and some firms will feel more pain than others. www.optimisticallie.com/p/big-tech-s...

🪳 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🪳 On if there could be more credit "cockroaches" to think about (TL;DR probably not), and why any credit/bad loan headlines make us feel like the world is about to end www.optimisticallie.com/p/credit-coc...

🎂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🎂 Happy 3rd birthday to the bull market. Why you can argue all you want about why this bull is about to die...but you can't bet against it (bulls last longer than you think) optimisticallie.com/p/happy-birthday-bull-market-78a6

🍂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍂 I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months) Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio: www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...

JOLTS: Hiring rate: 3.2%, matching the lowest since 2020 Firing/separations rate: also 3.2%, at a 12-year low Quits rate: 1.9%, lowest since COVID and historically low

All around bad data dump for the job market this morning: Consumer confidence: respondents' perception of jobs plentiful vs. hard to get is barreling towards zero (which has historically been the breakpoint for recessions)