Musk has the whole weekend to spin this as a win for SpaceX. He can always go with "You only fail when you don't learn from experience"

"…futures climbed after reports that the US and Iran had backed away from fresh escalations…" Did anyone LOOK AT THE DAMN MAP? It took me 15 seconds just now to check out MarineTraffic, you can see for yourself that nothing's moving:

Everyone can see for themselves—here's a screenshot from right now of MarineTraffic.com. You can set filters for vessels by type. In this, green = cargo, red = tanker; circle = anchored, arrow = underway. If you're looking to compare this to an actual open working strait or canal, zoom out & scroll

Here is the Strait of Hormuz as of 6:03 pm Eastern—as quiet as it ever is:

Meanwhile at this moment (12:25 Eastern) the Strait is a quiet as a graveyard:

This chart in Krugman's piece jumped out at me. It's a big part of why Americans view our future as bleak: the massive amount we spend on "defense" provides nearly all of us with NOTHING.

It's 5:45 pm right in the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, there would be steady lines going in both directions through the Strait, like there are at other geographic crunchpoints around the globe (which you can easily see in real time on MarineTraffic.com and other sites). The Strait is closed.

Stumped again *sigh*

Sure seems that way right now—it's even emptier than (the new) normal. (Red=tanker, green=cargo. Circle=anchored, arrow=underway)

"Anyday" is not today, however:

Compare this to Bab-el-Mandeb, between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, taken around the same time. This is what Hormuz used to look like, an orderly line of tankers and cargo ships. Both pics from MarineTraffic.com which you should check out to see who's lying, in real time.

Not much attention being paid to it right now, but there is no question the Strait of Hormuz is as closed as a MAGA mind:

Meanwhile, here's how the Strait of Hormuz looked 20 minutes ago. Lots of circles (anchored), almost no arrows (underway). Reds are tankers, greens are containers:

In any case, it's daybreak right now in the Strait of Hormuz but nobody's going anywhere (red = tanker, green = container, arrow = underway, circle = anchored)

And here's a visual aid: red = tanker, green = cargo, arrowhead = underway, circle = anchored. Lotta circles out there right now!

Looking pretty closed as of a minute ago:

Say, ya know what's still empty as all fuck?

In advance of his April Fool's speech, here's a look at the Strait of Hormuz right now. Admittedly, it's about 4 am there, but with this amount of money at stake, everyone has figured out how to do nighttime shipping. Which nobody's doing, at all:

Short but important. Krugman's essay leads to this table of elasticity of oil demand (how easily we can do without it) versus how disruptive the Strait's closure is. Note the price range of oil, from $99 to $372—ulp!

Just took this screenshot right now and it's even deader than yesterday:

Traffic's really picking up today—must be those savvy investors betting on a de-escalation:

MarineTraffic.com will also tell you when the war is over:

Specifically:

Uh oh, he's starting to think about uniforms:

Jared Golden's district has the longest border with Canada of ANY member of Congress. Someday we'll find out why he supports punitive tariffs against his neighbor.

Pretty sure de Sève won the Nobel Cartooning Prize for this one