CFBNumbers
@cfbnumbers
College Football analysis through the good ole fashioned computer! | Senior Media Research Associate: PFF The CFB Analytics Newsletter: Buy Me A Coffee!:
Way too early consensus* 2027 NFL Draft QB rankings 1. Arch Manning 2. Dante Moore 3. Darian Mensah 4. Brendan Sorsby 5. CJ Carr 6. Drew Mestemaker 7. Jayden Maiava 8. LaNorris Sellers 9. Julian Sayin 10. CJ Bailey *consensus of my own vibes + some numbers
In terms of total draft pick value (based on the Fitzgerald-Spielberger Chart), 2026 Ohio State had the 5th best draft class since 2007, just passing their 2025 draft class
2nd annual tradition of putting out my draft preferences for my beloved Miami Dolphins. I didn't even have Kenneth Grant last year so what do I know lol
Number one overall QBs (and Fernando Mendoza who is going to be the first pick) and their career point rating along with percentiles. Mendozas point rating ranks in the ~89th percentile of drafted QBs since 2008, and in a normal range of previous 1st picks. Send the card in!
Most PFF Wins Above Average (WAA) among Safeties in the PFF Era: 1. Caleb Downs - 1.23 2. Jordan Battle - 1.09 3. K'Von Wallace - 0.81 4. RJ Mickens - 0.79 5. Dillon Thieneman - 0.77 6. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren - 0.76
A look at the average and total Approximate Value added to the team that drafted the player by college. Not saying the college matters after they get to a NFL camp but still an interesting look nonetheless!
Looking at CPOE by pass depth, but instead of QBs its WRs when they are targeted. These are the ~top 12 WRs in the draft based on consensus boards. Bryce Lance as a deep threat🔥
Looking at draft QBs and how often they put the ball "into play" under pressure (so aimed passes regardless of outcome. No sacks or scrambles). Miller Moss and Garrett Nussmeier lead the way with putting balls in play under pressure, with Nussmeier having the higher CPOE
Not an April Fools joke!! My 2026 NFL Draft cards are now LIVE and ready to go! The cards have everything from little blurbs based on film study to stats and other fun things! Its 100% free! Ill link an article explaining it further + the draft guide link [1/4]🧵
Have to finalize some numbers but im doing a draft guide that is Pokemon cards for the ~top 40 prospects (atm, maybe ill get to 50 if there is interest!) If this interests you let me know! Should be good to go early next week!
This graph shows how valuable a QB was in his career (y axis), and how much his offense used things like play action, screens RPOs etc. (X axis). Mendoza in a fine spot on both axis
Comparing my QB point rating system to Next Gen Stats Production Score (0.52 R2 among QBs since 2008 for those interested). Both systems have Fernando Mendoza clearly above the rest of the QB class
Another installment of Game Managers and Gunslingers, including the 2026 draft class. Things like ADOT, throwing past the sticks create the gunslinging metric, while comp %/negative play rate shape the game manager metric. This class features 0 QBs in the top right quadrant
The most important piece of draft information out there: The top 40 prospects (by consensus board) by what Pokemon they are close to in height and weight (removing duplicate use of Pokemon)
Post Combine Mock Draft for (once again) the laughs and also the giggles
For combine week I am highlighting the best Ironman competitors by position (guys that completed each drill in this table) using average percentile grouped by position
Looking at completion percentage over expectation and average depth of target, but from the WRs perspective. Carnell Tate lands in the top 5 in CPOE when targeted among WRs drafted in the first 2 rounds since the 2017 draft class
2026 NFL Draft QB prospects completion percentage over expectation by how far they threw the football down the field. Capped at 40 yards because its wonky after that. Yes that is Cole Payton and NDSU you are seeing👀
Explosive rush rate and missed tackles forced per attempt among RBs taken in first two rounds since 2017 + what I believe are the top 3 RBs in this class (Love, Price, Coleman). Jeremiyah Love and Jonah Coleman in good company next to Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker
For a measly $450 on Fanatics you can get Sam Darnold to sign Bo Nix's name on a picture of him holding the Lombardi trophy
Im sad to see the Dakotas get split up (for now) but I am interested to see how fast NDSU can plant themselves in the CFP conversation. They have been one of the best non P4 teams at getting guys drafted high in the past 15 drafts
The annual look at where players on the active rosters for the two Super Bowl teams started in terms of their HS recruit rating. Feels like there is a lot more non blue chip/unranked players than usual
Expected Points added per play from this season and last season among FBS QBs with 150+ plays (and 75+ pass attempts) in each season. Jayden Maiava, Diego Pavia and Joey Fagnano among biggest improvers year over year