Alex Boreham
@cyclonicwx
Tropical meteorologist, B.S. FSU, amateur web, Python, & GrADS programmer. Also known as Not Sparta
#Dolphin's small core is hanging on, and while it has weakened, its pressures remain low owing to its very large size. It will soon hit or make a very close approach to a station recording pressure. See it, with new obs every 10 min: cyclonicwx.com/interactive/...
Interesting evolution with #Dolphin today. After its core became increasingly large and disheveled, a new, much smaller eyewall formed. This will allow it to restrengthen somewhat with a smaller core. Still, it is a very large storm!
New ENSO plot! There's now a scatterplot comparing Niño 3.4 (or RONI) to the ENSO Longitude Index. Good way to tell how east- or west-based it is! So far given an ELI slightly more east than 1997 with similar RONI, it would imply that 2026 is similarly or even more east-based
In July, the equatorial subsurface east of the dateline was warmer than it has ever been, beating 1997's peak by 0.36°C! This value tends to peak in the fall so we may still have more to go. Yet another record broken by this very strong El Niño event!
#Dolphin has cleared out a nice eye today, but it won't stay this way for long. A recent microwave pass shows there is an outer eyewall, so yet another ERC will commence soon. This will likely be quite a big storm as it approaches the western part of the basin
Watching the sunrise on strong tropical cyclones never gets old. Category 5 #Dolphin certainly impressing
#Dolphin has intensified impressively quickly and sports a pinhole eye. Likely not far from super typhoon strength already! It looks likely to undergo an ERC soon, but conditions remain extremely favorable for a while, allowing a very intense storm. JTWC forecasts 165kt!
Lots of bursting convection south of #Dolphin's center right now. Almost certainly at least part of an eyewall developing in here, and it's probably just about a typhoon already. Will likely see RI to a super typhoon begin some point soon
#92C looks to have developed now with the help of a very strong WWB. It will traverse much of the West Pacific, including the patch of record SSTs, and most likely end up a powerful typhoon
#Genevieve is the East Pacific's first major hurricane of the year. Look at all the rotating convective bursts around the clearing eye! Will be nice eye candy as it travels WNW through the open Pacific
#Bertha is trying to relocate its LLC as the NE side weakens and a potent MLC tries to drill to the surface. Some nice inflow into the convection now. Shear remains high so we won't see those hurricane model solutions come to pass but would allow it to survive longer if LLC remains well-defined
#Bertha is an impressively decoupled tropical cyclone. The LLC is over 100 miles away from the main convective complex! Yet the LLC remains very well defined, so a relocation would be difficult. Most likely it will remain weak and disorganized
#Bertha remains quite sheared today. A good example of it this morning, with an attempted convective burst that ultimately fails and is sheared off the LLC. There's enough convection for gradual pressure falls and some stronger winds in here, but Bertha remains disheveled
#TD2 has a bit more convection near its center than yesterday, but it is displaced, and the present NE shear is very apparent. Given N movement and lack of organization, it will likely not intensify very much before approaching the mouth of the Mississippi in a couple days and interacts with land
#TD2 has gotten itself together rather quickly, becoming a TC with a solid footprint of rotation. It will likely strengthen in the next couple of days, but future land interaction & NE shear will try to keep a lid on it, keeping it at TS strength. Worth watching if it dips south
Niño 3.4 has hit +2°C, earlier than any other year, including 1997 which took until the end of August! However, RONI shows isn't so far from the old records, and is on track with 1997. Very impressive with stronger -ENSO in January, and even in RONI terms could surpass 1997
As #Bavi approaches the Ishigaki area, we'll have a solid trove of data come in, both from Ishigaki's radar and several AMeDAS stations in the area. Radar will look particularly interesting with its very large outer eyewall. See it at cyclonicwx.com/interactive/!
With #Bavi's ERC over and a mostly clear eye, you can see down to the low cloud and ocean again. Mesmerizing to watch up close, with Himawari Target Area (and GOES Mesoscale Sector) visible imagery now available at 500m resolution!
Another is data from AMeDAS, something similar to ASOS with a much denser network of stations, updating every 10 minutes!
With #Bavi making its trek towards Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands, I've added some more data you can see from the JMA that will be useful this season! The first is velocity data from the radars in addition to reflectivity.
#Bavi looks to be beginning another eyewall replacement cycle, with a strong band wrapping around the eyewall and developing moat between the two. Will cause very high winds to scrape Guam, but Rota is expected to see the worst impacts from the stronger inner eyewall
#Bavi is getting into range of PGUA. Reminder that you can see reflectivity and velocity data for it, both plots and interactive, and even see reflectivity/velocity readouts! Great new tool for tracking
#Bavi appears to be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle currently, with a much less stable eye and multiple rings of colder convection near the eye. This may weaken it slightly, but it will also expand its wind field. Whatever happens still a very dangerous storm on the way
#Bavi is now rapidly intensifying, having partly cleared out its eye. It has several days to continue intensifying amid favorable conditions (outflow is a sign), and will likely be a very dangerous super typhoon by the time it reaches the Marianas Islands on Monday (local time)
With TS 9W beginning to gain strength and make an approach towards the Marianas Island chain, I've added another couple of features. First is velocity data from NEXRAD radars, and next is a readout of any shaded layer displayed. Good to see the specific value at a certain point!
We've got widespread convection at the dateline, with a month straight of westerly anomalies there...this is what a coupled El Niño event looks like. Impressive for June!
#Mekkhala is trying its best against the high shear...but its structure has long been shot. It has that "halficane" look to it from Ishigaki radar. Always nice to be able to see into a storm's structure like this!
Also, see NHC Tropical Weather Outlook right from here, and their full text. Confused by the UTC times? No longer a problem, with the option to convert to local time!
A couple new features today: see the IR4 color table! This one is quite popular and now available. Plus opacity controls! Control the opacity of most layers, and even opacity above/below a cutoff value of your choice! Click the colorbar to begin, and click the marker to remove it