🇨🇳🇹🇯 On Monday, I had the opportunity to discuss with @tvpworld.bsky.social's excellent Ashim Kumar the latest amendment to Hungary's Fundamental Law, the removal of President Sulyok, and former Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter #Szijjártó's appointment to #BYD's global management team. THREAD 1/8

2/3 Looking beyond the headlines and lofty rhetoric, my paper examines the internal political logic of 🇭🇺 foreign policy through four policy areas where the most significant shifts are likely to occur: ▪️ Central European cooperation ▪️ Access to EU funds ▪️ Ukraine ▪️ The Western Balkans

In the GMF #ResiliencePodcastSeries, I had the pleasure of discussing with the great @veghzsuzsanna.bsky.social the tools that #illiberal governments have used—and continue to use—within the 🇪🇺 to shrink civic space and target civil society. Check out the conversation 👉 tinyurl.com/yay25rfh

1/2 As a think tanker, it is a particular honor to be invited to deliver a Jean Monnet Lecture. I am especially grateful to @maastrichtu.bsky.social & to Ferenc Laczó for the invitation, and I very much look forward to the exchange with academic colleagues and students in Maastricht. @iep-berlin.de

🇭🇺🇪🇺What the shift in power in Hungary means for Europe The impact of the 🇭🇺 elections goes beyond the relationship between 🇭🇺 and its 🇪🇺 partners and has genuinely European dimensions. It opens a 12-month period to implement much-needed reforms in EU decision-making. 👉 iep-berlin.de/site/assets/...

🇭🇺🎉THREAD 1/3 The dismantling of state capture is already beginning today In his victory speech, Péter Magyar called for the resignation of – Tamás Sulyok, President of Hungary – the President of the Constitutional Court – the President of Hungary’s Supreme Court (the Curia) – the Prosecutor General

🇭🇺🇭🇺🇭🇺🇭🇺🇭🇺🎉 THREAD 1/2 At 45% of the votes counted, the official projection of the National Election Office gives Tisza Party 135 seats in Parliament—a clear constitutional supermajority. THIS IS A LANDSLIDE! This is a democratic revolution against a corrupt and authoritarian regime.

2. If you see these figures catching up rapidly toward the end of the day, you can be very, very suspicious.

🇭🇺🗳️ THREAD 1/2 5:00 pm: 74% turnout—more than 5.5 million Hungarian voters have already cast their ballots in today’s election. Turnout is lowest in Northeast Hungary, where the highest levels of irregularities related to vote buying and voter coercion can be expected.

#CrossingRedLines ❗️THREAD 1/2 In his Facebook post, Balázs Orbán, the political director of Prime Minister Orbán, raises the specter of potential armed violence on the part of Tisza. I am not aware of when we lost all state functions, including the security apparatus, over the past couple of days,..

🇭🇺🗳️#HungarianElections THREAD 1/2 3:00 pm turnout: 66% Turnout is already close—four hours before polls close—to where it ended in 2018 and 2022. I have already written about the structural impact of high turnout, so here is a different aspect.

#HungaryElectionThread Record turnout in #Hungary; 37,98% until 11:00 am. Expect final turnaround in the range of 65-80%. (2022:69%) This benefits #Tisza also structuraly: extreme high turnout lowers the chances of the extreme-right party Our Homeland to clear the 5% threshold.

THREAD 1/5 Der IEP #Wahlmonitor gehört zu den hilfreichsten Tools für deutschsprachige Journalist:innen, die über europäische Wahlen berichten.

THREAD 1/7 Hybrid warfare measures are becoming entrenched in the #Hungarian election campaign. In my latest piece on #Ballhausplatz, I analyse the apparent false-flag attempted terrorist attack against the Turkish Stream pipeline in Serbia... ballhausplatz.substack.com/p/hijacking-...

#Hungary’s April 2026 election may become one of the most consequential political contests in Europe this year - not only for Hungary, but for the EU and Ukraine. In my new @iep-berlin.de #Wahlmonitor paper, I outline five scenarios Europe should be prepared for. 🧵

Don't forget to join us on 📆March 12, Thursday ⏰ 3:00 pm CET / 10:00 am EDT and discuss with Borjan Gjuzelov, Jelena Pejic Nikic, Anamarija Velinovska, Zoran Necev & yours truly how #RuleofLaw resilience resources and stress factors shape #EUEnlargement. 🔗 RSVP 👉 tinyurl.com/2yxcr597

📢New on Ballhausplatz 🇺🇦🇪🇺🇭🇺👇 The arrest of seven Ukrainian nationals in Hungary has sharply intensified the already fraught relationship between Budapest and Kyiv, with far-reaching potential consequences for the Hungarian election campaign. ballhausplatz.substack.com/p/seven-arre...

Some thoughts before today's informal EUCO. THREAD 1/3 Rather than remaining merely reactive, the EU should approach the Greenland crisis within NATO in a way that strengthens its own geopolitical posture, improves Arctic security, and ...

I’m excited to share that from February 1 I’ll be joining the Institute für Europäische Politik @iep-berlin.de as its new Deputy Director. I’m very much looking forward to working with the fantastic IEP team and to engaging closely with partners in the Berlin bubble, across Europe, and beyond.

3. Regarding my recommendations, I argue for: • a strengthened enforcement approach by the European Commission against anti–civil society legislation, including the application of established judicial tests to trigger requests for interim measures;

3/5 • future-proofing EU civil society support through diversification and the extension of the European Endowment for Democracy’s mandate to include grantmaking within the EU itself;

2/5 • a strengthened enforcement approach by the European Commission against anti–civil society legislation, including the application of established judicial tests to trigger requests for interim measures;

It was a great pleasure to speak at the “Mapping the Illiberal Challenge” closing conference of @authlibeu.bsky.social at the CEU. Presenting the key arguments and recommendations of my upcoming policy paper, “How to Better Protect and Support Civil Society in the EU?”, I argued for: THREAD 1/5

THREAD I am pleased to share that I started my personal Substack "Ballhausplatz". Expect a regular dose of EU integration, geopolitics and Transatlantic affairs, ironclad commitment to liberal democracy mixed with provocatively value-agnostic Realpolitik, coming with a Central European flair.

2/3 My take in nutshell is the following: "I doubt that the US goal is to promote the departure of one of these four nations from the bloc, but rather to push a gradual disintegration of European integration through diplomatic, political and perhaps even financial support."

A Geopolitical Note on the Margins of the Putin–Witkoff Meeting THREAD 1/14

THREAD 1/6 Obviously, much of this is speculation, but I think #Orbán’s trip to #Moscow today — and his talks with Vladimir #Putin — should be seen primarily through the lens of yesterday’s Orbán–Vučić meeting, not last week’s peace-negotiation rollercoaster. @politico.eu

By tomorrow, @rferl.org.web.brid.gy will cease its 🇭🇺 operations. After returning in 2020 amid Hungary’s deepening autocratization, it is now withdrawing again — another move by the Trump administration shoring up Orbán at a moment of rising domestic pressure, a clear sign of illiberal solidarity.

🇺🇸🇭🇺 The balance of the #Trump-#Orbán meeting is more nuanced than the hype around securing sanction exemptions for #Hungary’s oil imports from #Russia. Check out my piece written for @euobserver.com, summarized in the THREAD below. euobserver.com/eu-and-the-w...

I had the pleasure yesterday of discussing with @tvpworld.bsky.social the collapse of the Budapest “Peace Summit,” the latest EUCO developments, and Hungarian domestic politics, with a focus on the mobilization contest around the October 23 national holiday. 👉 www.youtube.com/watch?v=fF9s...