Dan Shafer
@danshafer
Founding editor, The Recombobulation Area. Exhausted Dad. Milwaukee person. BUCKS FAN.
So I looked into that “Swing Voter Project” data that was going around today about reactions to the Democratic gubernatorial primary debate, and, well…
NEWS: Congresswoman Gwen Moore of Milwaukee is endorsing David Crowley for governor. Full press release:
I am not a democratic socialist. Francesca Hong is comfortably to the left of me, politically. But I also HATE the traditional way Democrats do things, and she has run circles around other candidates who were going the same old way. She's doing things differently. That’s why she’s winning.
Francesca Hong has just a preposterously ridiculous lead in the 18-29 and 30-44 age groups, per the Marquette poll. No other candidate is even in double-digits among voters under 45.
Today is the first day of early, in-person absentee voting in Wisconsin for the Aug. 11 partisan primary. The big race is the Democratic primary for governor, but there are many more up and down the ballot where you may have an important choice to make. Be prepared: myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Whats-...
Great event with @benwikler.bsky.social in Eau Claire! Hoping I can figure out how to use this fire extinguisher. I think I have a better idea how to now!
Hong actually leads Tiffany among moderate voters — 36% to 30%. And overall, among likely voters, it’s a dead heat.
Francesca Hong has a clear lead in the polls. She dominates among younger voters. She's way out in front with middle-income voters. Her numbers vs. Tiffany are actually better than the topline numbers suggest. People like Hong. But Wisconsin voters do not like socialism.
With Rodriguez leaving the race, about half of her voters went to Mandela Barnes, half spread out through the field. But this, obviously, doesn't account for Crowley. And hey, you know who is polling REALLY WELL with moderate voters? Gov. Tony Evers, at a net +22 with moderates.
The biggest X-factor going into Wisconsin's primary? The undecided moderate. Nearly two-thirds (!) of moderate voters are undecided, per Marquette. Hong may have a significant lead in the primary, and is in position to win, but isn't doing well there. That's the open lane.
NEW: Here's my mega-breakdown of the new Marquette poll. - Hong leads, but voters hate socialism - Barnes polls best vs. Tiffany, concerns lurk - It looks over for Roys, Brennan - Could the Crowley Hail Mary work? - Trump approval craters +MUCH MORE: www.therecombobulationarea.com/p/hong-trump...
I was there for the Marquette poll release today. Even with the giant asterisk with this edition, there's a ton of info that we can learn from. I'm writing my usual deep dive breakdown, but it's going to take a little time. For now, see my live coverage on the other site: x.com/DanRShafer/s...
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John Johnson rates the outlook for the balance of power in the Senate and Assembly in Wisconsin, along with several battleground districts. The big picture: Senate: LEAN D Assembly: TOSSUP
The gorgeous view of the Milwaukee skyline from South Shore Park in Bay View, July 2026.
NEW: By first-round knockout, the winner of The Wisconsin Democratic Primary Ranked-Choice Voting Experiment is: Francesca Hong
Folks, I'll be going LIVE on Substack this afternoon at 3 p.m. to talk about the results of "The Wisconsin Democratic Primary Ranked-Choice Voting Experiment" with John D. Johnson of Marquette University. Subscribers will be able to join us to watch here: open.substack.com/live-stream/...
Folks, we are REOPENING VOTING for The Wisconsin Democratic Primary Ranked-Choice Voting Experiment! We've collected the data and made some minor modifications following David Crowley's departure from the race. You can now rank the candidates 1-5. www.therecombobulationarea.com/p/the-wiscon...
JUST IN: David Crowley is ending his campaign for governor. Here's his full press release making the announcement.
Here's the ballot. Rank the candidates 1-6 in order of preference. www.therecombobulationarea.com/p/the-wiscon...
REMINDER: The Recombobulation Area is back to being 100% independent, and we're offering 50% off all subscriptions for our "Independence Day Sale" through Friday. 100% independent. 50% off. Subscribe here: www.therecombobulationarea.com/INDEPENDENCE...
Michael Alfonso, Sean Duffy's 26-year-old son-in-law, is trying to ride a Trump endorsement and a raft of totally-above-board campaign cash (from transportation industry lobbyists) to a nomination in the Republican primary in the 7th CD. He's now comparing himself to ... oh!
just an absolute heist of a deal www.therecombobulationarea.com/independence...