Eric Maugendre about emissions

@data

Data scientist; researching climate policy. I calculate how to avoid much carbon emissions: Banner is a directed acyclic graph. Avatar shows a white man in a heatwave.

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Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· 23d

Cold blobs significantly increase #heatwave duration and magnitude in Europe. The subpolar North Atlantic region is very relevant for European summer conditions, but is marked by large biases in current coupled climate model simulations. @sabinebischof.bsky.social et al. doi.org/10.1029/2023...

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly during the second European heatwave this year. A green circle points at an ocean location 7°C below normal.

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· 24d

El Niño and climate change may be locked into a vicious climate cycle. Global heating amplifies the impacts associated with super El Niños & “makes the climate system more prone to persistent shifts once those impacts are triggered.” Read @bberwyn.bsky.social: insideclimatenews.org/news/2504202...

The chart shows the 'Temperature Ratchet' effect that El Niño has on global temperatures. Each significant event leaves a residual impact of up to +0.2°C...

THE 12-MONTH OUTLOOK
The NOAA CPC probabilities indicate a dramatic shift towards El Niño conditions. While June sees an 84% chance of neutral ENSO, July has an 82% chance of El Niño, rising to 98% by August, September, October, November, and December. The CNN/SNU forecast reinforces this, predicting Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +3.02°C by December 2026. The most dramatic shift is expected in the 3rd quarter of 2026, with strong El Niño conditions becoming highly probable, significantly influencing global weather patterns.

from https://4billionyearson.org/climate/symphony

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· 24d

The weathers, they are a-changing. We can make sense of pattern evolution. I am starting a thread about Europe's new #climate conditions. 🧵 (You may read stories in the "ALT" descriptions.)

The chart is temperatures plotted against years (from 1940 to 2026).
It graphs temperatures averaged over four weeks in European France since 1940 [the month Pétain made his first broadcast to the French people].
A curve in red is made from statistical regression (loess method: smoothness determined with cross-validation) to build a statistical central trend.

We may look at the difference between monthly index and trend:
The red point represents the average of mid-June to mid-July 2026. Its high position is not absurd: it shows within the distribution of variability around the trend.
June 1976 and 2003 were outliers, "black swan" like, events: June and mid-June to mid-July 2003 were 3.7 °C away from the trend, when 2026 June is only 1.7°C.
The same kind of extreme period this year would have shown an average at 2°C more.

The calculations and graph were made by Denis Mongin‬ ‪@denismongin.bsky.social‬
The above comments were built from his. Below comments come from me.

Incidently you may note that 2022 was the year the French President said "Mais qui aurait pu prédire ?" and the monthly index exactly is at the trend curve.

Data was mangled by averaging over the month. This has the benefit of showcasing a general enhancement: across the country, day and night.
Data was uploaded from weather stations located in Europe. The method was chosen by the national weather service.
The method purposely excludes weather stations located in France but not in Europe – such as Guyane, a territory neighbour to the Amazon basin.

Florent Malouda was born in Guyane. He is one of the greatest wingers in the history of the Chelsea football club. Malouda represented the France national football team on 80 occasions from 2004 to 2012.

Among the players selected for the 2026 FIFA World Cup is Mike Maignan. He plays as the goalkeeper for and captains Serie A club AC Milan. Mike Maignan was born in French Guiana, to a Haitian mother and a Guadeloupean father.

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· 25d

Temperate "forests with a mix of mycorrhizal fungal types are more efficient in taking up nitrogen, investing less carbon overall to their fungal partners." @siyashao.bsky.social, Zachary Shortt, @bsulman.bsky.social, Caitlin Hicks Pries (2025). doi.org/10.1029/2025... #forests #soil #CCS #carbon

"The model echoed previous work in suggesting that increasing the abundance of soil nitrogen, for example, through fertilizer runoff, decreases the dependence of plants on mycorrhizal fungi and therefore reduces the amount of carbon plants allocate to their microbial counterparts. But in contrast to previous studies, these researchers found that rising soil temperatures had the same effect of reducing the amount of nitrogen and carbon exchanged by fungi and plants. That’s because warmth accelerates the breakdown of organic material, which releases nitrogen. Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, on the other hand, will likely increase the reliance of plants on mycorrhizal fungi by increasing the growth rate of plants and therefore increasing their need for nutrients."

From Saima May Sidik (2025), How plant-fungi friendships are changing, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250397

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· 26d

#Soil organic matter is discontinuous.

"Significance
Soils contain the largest pool of organic carbon near the surface of the Earth and represent a natural carbon sink that helps to buffer against anthropogenic carbon emissions and land-use changes. Despite this, little is known regarding the molecular-level mechanisms of soil organic carbon recalcitrance. In the present study, we explore one of the key phenomena hypothesized to explain the stability of organic carbon in soils, namely mineral-associated organic matter. Using enhanced-sampling molecular dynamics simulations, we show that soil organic matter can be stabilized through a variety of mineral–organic interactions and through the intercession of organic–organic interactions."

Thomas R. Underwood, Ian C. Bourg, Kevin M. Rosso (2024). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2413216121

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· 26d

‪@avnimalh0tra.bsky.social‬, @sophievf.bsky.social, Your work is so important! I am still venerating the pair of caption #2 and multidimensional graph. It has beauty and clarity on a matter in which i would had deemed them impossible!

"Representativeness of soil databases (colored dots) superimposed on the global soil bioclimatic multivariate space (gray dots). The multivariate space consists of mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), gross primary productivity (GPP) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from soil pixels globally. Databases are organized into the three process-relevant categories listed in Fig. 1, namely current stocks and fluxes (green), mechanistic drivers (purple) and future gain/loss potential (pink)."

Malhotra, A., von Fromm, S.F., Bond-Lamberty, B. et al. (2026). "Do we have globally representative data to understand soil processes?". Biogeochemistry 169, 23 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10533-025-01301-z

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· 27d

It is very nicely encapsulated @alevermann.bsky.social. Complete with the mandatory mention of fossil phase-out 🙂 Below is the causal premise of my next study on land-use change. You may note that estimates of emissions increase with time:

Causal paths of emissions from land use change and fires.

There is a feedback loop: emissions make concentrations increase, which forces climate, which makes emissions increase.

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· 28d

(I grew nearby.) In Brittany, drivers are known to be often more careful and civil than in the rest of the Hexagone. The landscapes and road designs are similar all over Brittany down to Nantes. It took about forty years to cover the whole region. What prevents Ireland from starting?

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· Jul 7

Surface water south of Greenland is about 2°C lower than normal. The North Atlantic jet stream routes around the #ColdBlob and conveys southern air to Western Europe. We have a pattern of #heatwaves for this summer. You may learn how #weather works by playing: earth.nullschool.net#2026/06/18/1...

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly during the second European heatwave this year; pointing at an ocean location 7°C below normal

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· Jul 4

excerpt from @chandrakants.bsky.social & U. Martin Persson (2026). doi.org/10.1038/s430... Spatial patterns of major deforestation-risk commodities:

Spatial patterns of major deforestation-risk commodities (aggregated for 2018–2022)
In decreasing order: Brazil, DRC, China.

excerpt from Chandrakant Singh & U. Martin Persson (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-026-01305-4

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· Jun 29

Climate change impacts ecosystems and makes some of them emit more carbon gas. 🧵 Below is incremental heating that would come on top of activity-induced warming. Beware that the ridge is entirely plausible: σ is a measure of the uncertainty; σ is way smaller that the extent of uncertainty:

"Stacked WIE-induced warming for
(a), SSP1-2.6,
(b), SSP2-4.5, and
(c), SSP4-6.0, split by permafrost (gray), wildfire (brown), freshwater (pink), and wetlands (green).
CH4 contributions are shown with cross-hatching, while CO2 contributions are shown with circular hatching. (d), Total WIE-induced warming for SSP1-2.6 (blue), SSP2-4.5 (orange), and SSP4-6.0 (red), with shading showing ±1 standard deviation, propagated from emission sensitivity uncertainty and climate response uncertainty added in quadrature. All WIE-induced warming is relative to a 2020 baseline."

excerpt from Sam Abernethy et al. (2026). https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15002332/v1

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· Jun 26

This message was witty enough 🙂 I have accepted to delay attempts at being ingenious until after the current heatwave 🙂

Exhausted people at a public fountain.
A white lady in sunglasses and bermudas presents a newspaper frontpage that states "The Climate Issue"
A hunched man in bermudas and sandals answers: "It's too hot for realization".

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· Jun 21

Study: methane gas emissions would be reduced by about 20 % in ten years if stopping bovine livestock. A climate policy could be to generalize the current practice of turning male calves into steers. doi.org/10.5281/zeno...

Lines of moderate ascend plus a spillway curve from above 170,000 to above 120,000 Gg CH₄/year. In ten years, methane emissions from agriculture activities are cut in two if bovine stop.

Figure shows methane emissions at a slight trough in 2027. The dent in methane emissions is due to a disruption in the delivery of fossil fuels from March 2026 (itself due to the Persian Gulf production being put offline by war).

Figure also shows curves of moderate ascend, drifted from current emissions, current activities, technical promises. Each year, the CH₄ production is similar in cases "CH₄ drift", "as usual", "tech potential", "factory cap". You could say that mitigation only goes so far.

Bovine stop would be a dramatic policy. It has its contribution fall from full to null over time. The figure shows a spillway curve falling by 60 Tg CH₄/year: emissions would diverge if bovine husbandry was curtailed.

After ten years of intervention, methane emissions from all activities if bovine stop would be 80 % of methane emissions from all activities if no intervention. We can see that bovine cessation would bring a throughput abatement of almost 80 Tg/year in ten years. This amount can be represented at 20 % of all methane emissions from activities if they are forecast at 400 Tg.

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· Jun 19

'Capital' is not money. It is the expectation of obtaining later money from an 'asset'. An 'asset' is a labeled balance-sheet entry – backed against a factory, a flat, a patent, a software (or a combination). Household #wealth mostly accrues from 'asset' creation and 'asset' revaluation:

The four drivers sump up to wealth creation cumulated.
They are:
• investment,
• bank lending,
• (in majority) "holding gains", also known as “capital revaluation”
• "government deficit spending": putting money into private-sector bank accounts.

More explanations at https://wealtheconomics.substack.com/p/where-assets-and-money-come-from

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· Jun 19

Saving (ie. revenues minus spending) does not even come close to explaining the accumulation of household wealth (ie. "assets" and net worth). 🧵

The graph shows that net worth grows much more than savings.
Data is of households and nonprofits in the USA from 1965 to 2025.
Conclusion: Saving does not explain wealth accumulation.

A Federal Reserve graph shows Households and Nonprofit Organizations; Net Saving barely increasing in comparison to Households and Nonprofit Organizations; Net Worth.

built from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HHNOSIA027N#

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· Jun 16

Indeed responsabilities are clear but the NYT is busy hiding them 🙁 Example: www.nytimes.com/2026/04/09/u...

"Student Hit by Projectile During ‘No Kings’ Protest Lost an Eye, Lawyer Says"

a headmast with the typical font used by the NYT

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· Jun 13

What policy for the Federal Emergency Management Agency? Dr. Samantha Montano @samlmontano.bsky.social has analyzed the President's Council report: www.disaster-ology.com/blog/femarev...

"as any good student of disaster history knows, ideas that are sitting around have a way of becoming law when focusing events open a policy window. There should be an independent analysis available to the public to help people understand where these ideas came from and what they could mean for all of us if implemented.

"The FEMA Review Council was not brave enough to recommend abolishing FEMA but there is still a cruelty that runs through their report. This is not a vision for an emergency management system that is more effective, efficient,"

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· Jun 12

If you communicate that climate change is due to humans, you antagonise people and democracy. On the contrary, a struggle for habitability would highlight harmful activities. For example, you may replace "Each year we release greenhouse gases" by "Each year activities release greenhouse gases".

On the top right is a drawing of a fingerprint.
"Tracking the human fingerprint.
"A living dashboard of the climate system, tracking key indicators to quantify the human impact on climate change. Scroll the narrative, open the full flow chart or"

excerpt from https://indicators.climate.copernicus.eu/

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· Jun 11

#ElNiño study: "Each El Niño phase actively reduces low-level [clouds between the tropics]. When the next El Niño develops before full cloud recovery during intervening La Niña or neutral conditions, the albedo loss becomes progressively more persistent." www.academia.edu/167011795/Th...

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· May 30

Oceans are moving in layers of currents beneath the sea surface. Now we can see currents, not directly but via a NASA video. Not only is it educational, but it is beautiful as well. Watch underwater "conveyors”: www.youtube.com/embed/R5-s6O... #oceans #conveyorBelt #AMOC #climate #dataViz

Ocean in Motion around Japan from NASA's View of Earth's Underwater Highways

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· May 13

"Cascading transition risks towards degraded ecosystems in the #Amazon biome[: The] majority of the simulated transitions is caused by spatial knock-on effects from increasing drought intensities, leading to long-ranging and self-propelling cascades on scales of hundreds to thousands of kilometres."

Map of the Amazon basin with a grid representing the study area. In this grid, each grid cell is represented by a dynamical systems equation (Eq. 2) with two stable equilibrium states (forest and alternative state, see inset). The individual and local scale tipping dynamics can spread via the coupling from the atmospheric moisture recycling network.

From https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10456-0

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· May 3

If #meetings don't deliver, change format. Example: Unlike COPs, the purpose was to "debate practical ways to move away from coal, oil and gas". The representatives described the conference as a “safe space for discussion”. “That kind of space I haven’t seen in my 10-year history with the UNFCCC.” …

a person takes the microphone at a meeting of the first Conference for the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels, on 28 April 2026

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· Apr 24

Forest management is depleting #carbon storage. Old-growth forests in Sweden store ~72% more carbon than the industrial tree plantations that are replacing them, with soil accounting for most of the difference. Didac Pascual, @katerinageorgiou.bsky.social et al. (2026). doi.org/10.1126/scie...

Left to right - Anders Ahlström, Peter Pellitier, Katerina Georgiou, Didac Pascual, and Rob Jackson during fieldwork in Norra Gällsjön. (Image credit - Philippe Roberge)

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· Apr 23

The ocean is beginning to amplify the warming it once absorbed. A stratified ocean implies: • Hotter heatwaves and stronger storms • Collapsing marine productivity • Rising seas • Increasing rainfall intensity, reshaping food and water security • Fueling tropical cyclones and hurricanes

Ocean stratification impacts on physical and biogeochemical ocean systems. The observed mean stratification trend for 0–2,000 m (upper), meridional trend within 20° S to 20° N (front), and zonal mean trend (right), with icons demonstrating their importance in the global climate system. Ocean stratification change is a pervasive feature and has important impacts on the climate system. Excerpt from Cheng, L., Li, G., Long, SM. et al. Ocean stratification in a warming climate. Nat Rev Earth Environ 6, 637–655 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-025-00715-5

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· Apr 21

"The combined effects of an #AMOC collapse at 2.5°C of global warming could reduce the percentage of global land suitable for growing wheat and maize by over a half […] Collapse would also disrupt the monsoons, with further adverse consequences for #agriculture and ecosystems (Lenton et al 2023)."

Percentage difference in crop suitability between no AMOC collapse (present day) and the effects of AMOC collapse plus 2.5°C of global warming. Decreases in suitability are represented with red shading, increases with blue.

Excerpt from https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/the-security-blind-spot

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· Apr 20

Overall, the northern hemisphere will be much drier. With cooling in the Northern Atlantic and warming in the south, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts south: • the African and Asian monsoons in the northern hemisphere will weaken; • the southern hemisphere monsoons will strengthen.

Precipitation relative changes as a result of an AMOC collapse after global warming of 2.5ºC.

With cooling in the Northern Atlantic and warming in the south, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts south, accompanied by considerable disruption of precipitation patterns in the tropics. The African and Asian monsoons in the northern hemisphere will weaken, while southern hemisphere monsoons will strengthen. The weaker Asian monsoon will cut rainfall in India in half, with dire consequences for essential agriculture.

The maps combine the 2.5ºC climate with the changes predicted after an AMOC collapse. Source: https://doi.org/10.1787/abc5a69e-en

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· Apr 19

20% of methane emissions would be avoided if we stopped raising cattle. Preprint uses causal inference to demonstrate the impact of such a public policy: doi.org/10.5281/zeno... Cites @vincentab.bsky.social, Susanne Dandl, @noahgreifer.bsky.social, @topepo.bsky.social, Kjell Johnson, Judea Pearl…

directed acyclic graph of CH₄ from agriculture:
➞ buffaloes ➞ CH₄ ⬅ cattle ⬅

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· Apr 19

New study uses causal analysis to demonstrate 20 % less methane emissions if one commodity replaced. I have just published a preprint article at doi.org/10.5281/zeno...

Greenhouse gas emissions go down 20 % in ten years as cattle stop reproduction

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· Apr 19

New study uses causal analysis to demonstrate big reductions in carbon emissions if fewer bovines. In ten years, methane emissions from all activities if bovine stop would be 80 % of methane emissions from all activities if no intervention. Results and causation: doi.org/10.5281/zeno...

Straight lines of moderate ascend plus a spillway curve from about 160,000 to 100,000 Gg CH₄/year. In ten years, methane emissions from activities if bovine stop would be 80 % of methane emissions from activities if no intervention.

Eric Maugendre about emissions@data· Apr 19

Hyperscaler projections may lack electricity in 2027. The physical substrate "cannot be compressed to the timetable equity markets currently imply." This bottleneck would delay deliveries, which implies a market correction. (Copper this year. Magnificent 7 next year.) … #infrastructure #electricity