B Jarosz
@datageekb
Data geek. Here for demography, public health, social justice, evidence-based policymaking, and math jokes.
I am really tired of being right. We warned about this in our July briefing... (Links in 🧵 )
❗❗❗ So... about that Executive Order on breaking down "data silos." Turns out this year the Census Bureau couldn't get the data it needed from IRS or Medicare in time for the current population estimates.
I mean, why would we need official statistics when a DoorDasher can bring it, lukewarm and possibly missing an item, to our door (and sometimes to our neighbor's door, but who's counting)?
Can someone do a welfare check on the CA Republican party? This is the ad they're running. I mean... Do you think it's a cry for help?
Exactly. When what you need is to scan huge volumes of text to help a human find something they need, AI may be helpful (e.g. scanning legislative text) But if you want Truth, using AI is like using a washing machine to do your dishes. I mean, I searched for "child with lemon" & AI gave me this
I am so sorry. May my cat's attempt to camouflage himself in the garden--as a fennel plant--bring you some joy.
Because the Carlsbad crowd lined both sides of the street *for more than a mile,* there's no way I could get a photo that would do it justice...
Can't talk about demography without talking about immigrants, and #fact that ICE enforcement actions have been targeting people with NO CRIMINAL RECORD. HT @nytimes.com
And @karenguzzo.bsky.social doing an incredible job of explaining the difference between period and cohort fertility (without saying either of those terms, because this is largely a policy audience) and the implications. Audience is paying very close attention.
Also, even with that low immigration projection, and anticipated declines in birth rates, we still will (checks notes) have children in California in 2070. More reason to not buy into the moral panic about falling birth rates.
State forecast update incorporates updated higher international migration through 2024 but substantially lower in the long run, resulting in a lower population forecast.
It's a downer of a shutdown day, but on the bright side, I get to see colleagues W Schwarm, @karenguzzo.bsky.social, E Zheng, and K Kane talk about population trends at the annual @scagnews.bsky.social Demographic Workshop.
The ACS community started when I joined PRB. 2025 truly marks the end of an era. 💔 Link to announcement in 🧵
I think the thing many people don't understand yet, because the headlines are all so tied to "jobs" numbers, is that the removal of the BLS Commissioner also means our individual wallets are at risk... What?! Let me explain... 🧵
Can anyone explain to me why telework rates in 2024-25 are higher than in 2022-23 (according to CPS)? Is it real? (It certainly debunks the RTO narrative.) Is it a methodological shift? Is it labor market shift? (I don't see anything obv in industry or occupation mix but maybe I missed something?)
If you're here, you probably care about data. On July 22, join me and other defenders of data to learn the latest and strategize for the future of public data. apdu.org?product=unco...
The federal government is asking for deregulation suggestions. What could possibly go wrong??? (If you're looking for a weekend project, consider submitting comments on why regs are important.)
Tell me you don't understand surveys without telling me you don't understand surveys.
Anyone else finding that the Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA) Database is down? More importantly, does anyone have a complete list of the advisory committees that have been terminated? (And those that are still standing?)
The "last updated" date on this National Survey of Children's Health page is a lie. I have a copy of the data and codebook from Oct 2024. The materials there today are missing at least one key measure: whether or not the child faced discrimination for their sexual orientation or gender identity.
BREAKING: Following the bad news for cancellation of the spring Census Scientific Advisory Committee meeting, and the 2030 Census Advisory Committee meeting... now May 2025 National Advisory Committee meeting is canceled.