Dan Nexon

@dhnexon

Professor in the Department of Government and the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. Power Politics | Empires | International Order dhnexon.net | | duckofminerva.com

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Bluesky

¿Es tu perfil?Reclámalo y dhnexon.dirty.social es tuyo.Reclamar perfil

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· 22d

Also, Grok Imagine has an outstanding continuity algorithm.

I won't add alt text to each clip. Three scenes from the AI "trailer." Three obviously different ship designs.

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· 26d

Thinking about 👇 a lot today. Not sure why. tinyurl.com/ycyt97tr "[P]eople familiar with Mr. Trump’s private conversations say he has long scorned those who served in Vietnam as being too dumb to have gotten out of it...."

Trump attacked her in response. “Jennifer Griffin should be fired for this kind of reporting,” he tweeted at the time. “Fox News is gone!” The Washington Post subsequently reported that “Trump believed people who served in the Vietnam War must be ‘losers’ because they hadn’t gotten out of it, according to a person familiar with the comments.” (The newspaper also noted that although Trump, in a tweeted response to the Atlantic story, claimed, “I never called John [McCain] a loser. I swear on whatever, or whoever, I was asked to swear on,” he did, in fact, call McCain a loser in a 2015 interview, which you can watch for yourself.)

The New York Times similarly reported that its sources verified “that Mr. Trump resisted supporting an official funeral and lowering flags after the death of Senator John McCain of Arizona, a Vietnam War hero whose military service he had disparaged.” (Ultimately, Trump relented, and the flags were lowered.) And the Times reported that “people familiar with Mr. Trump’s private conversations say he has long scorned those who served in Vietnam as being too dumb to have gotten out of it,” as Trump had done. The Times further reported that “some also recalled him asking why the United States should be so interested in finding captured soldiers” who are prisoners of war.

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· 27d

Trump wants to interdict the 2026 midterms. He's an authoritarian; he has no compunction about destroying the Republic for his own benefit. That's the most important thing. But let's talk take a second to talk about Georgia in 2021. 1/5

CNNs election map of the January 5, 2021 Senate runoff in Georgia. Ossoff beat Perdue 50.6–49.4% — a margin of around 55,000 votes.

CNN"s map of the results of the January 5, 2021 runoff between Warnock and Loeffler. Warnock prevailed 51–49% — a margin of roughly 90,000 votes.

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· 28d

Uh, ok. edition.cnn.com/2026/07/15/p...

"President Donald Trump has passed up multiple chances to explain to Americans how his latest escalation will win the war in Iran or how he'll alleviate their perpetually high costs for groceries, housing and fuel.
Now he's planning to anchor a national address Thursday evening on a personal fixation about the past — his false claim that he won the 2020 election.
Critics fear this is all part of a quickening effort to buckle trust in voting systems and to create a pretext to use federal powers to sway November's midterm elections. It would not be the first time that this president — who convention states should seek to bolster American democracy — has instead undermined it."

I've circled "convention" in red.

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· Jul 13

FYSA, Michael Williams wrote a fascinating article about the American postwar backlash against political aesthetics — a backlash driven by its close association with fascism. tinyurl.com/v846tvm9

Screencap of part of the article. It reads:

The Aestheticization of Politics

Famously coined by Walter Benjamin in 1936, the theme of the aestheticization of politics was a key part of wider debates over political modernity, democracy, and liberalism that coursed throughout the interwar period, reaching their most intense and, in many ways, sophisticated forms in Weimar Germany.3 As Benjamin (1936/68, 217-51) noted, engagements with aesthetic politics ranged from anarchist avowals of the virtues of violence to conservative and fascist visions of war as an aesthetic object espoused by Italian Futurists such as Marinetti and German "young conservatives" including Ernst Jünger. Amongst this general intellectual tumult stood also the Weimar jurist and legal thinker Carl Schmitt.

Schmitt's vision of aesthetics and images forms part of his analysis of the wider crisis of liberal modernity and democracy that he viewed as the central political issue of the time.
At the center of his critique lies the claim that liberalism reduces politics to individualistic calculation and competition and the advancement of purely subjective values. Since the liberal state is subordinate to the interests and values of individuals, he argues, its citizens will support it only so long as it furthers their private ends. Liberal governments thus tended to become paralyzed by entropic competition between factional interests or captured by powerful agents or coalitions who used public power solely for their private benefit. As a result, the idea of a public or national interest became discredited, and the citizenry increasingly disaffected and disillusioned from a government that was either ineffective or mendacious.

The excerpt continues:

These issues were most pressing in the case of war, where the pathologies of liberal individualism undercut the state's capacity to engage in armed conflict. For Schmitt, the ability of the sovereign to decide definitively on questions of war, and the individual's willingness and obligation to obey those decisions, is fundamental. All functioning sovereignties are founded on this principle and capacity; those that do not possess it are unlikely to survive. Yet, liberal individualism's ultimately subjective foundations fatally undermined this ca-pacity, leaving the liberal state incapable of defending itself.
"In case of need," Schmitt argued "the political entity must demand the sacrifice of life. Such a demand is in no way justifiable by the individualism of liberal thought. No consistent individualism can entrust to someone other than to the individual himself the right to dispose of the physical life of the individual" (1996, 71). Liberal governments thus lacked the capacity to decide authoritatively upon substantive val-ues, and—crucially—their societies lacked any broader commitment to the liberal order or the state itself. This erosion of political commitment left the liberal state an empty shell, easy prey for internal or external enemies who were willing to risk and sacrifice their lives to gain control of the state and achieve their ends, and who used the freedom of belief and organization provided by the pluralistic "liberal Leviathan" to organize its destruction (Schmitt 2008, 74).

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· Jul 2

Bowers is just an appalling, disgusting decision. Blackmun's dissent is methodical and devastating. Also this from Stevens' separate dissent 👇

If the Georgia statute cannot be enforced as it is written -- if the conduct it seeks to prohibit is a protected form of liberty for the vast majority of Georgia's citizens - the State must assume the burden of justifying a selective application of its law. Either the persons to whom Georgia seeks to apply its statute do not have the same interest in "liberty" that others have, or there must be a reason why the State may be permitted to apply a generally applicable law to certain persons that it does not apply to others.

The first possibility is plainly unacceptable. Although the meaning of the principle that "all men are created equal" is not always clear it surely must mean that every free citizen has the same interest in liberty that
the members of the majority share. From the standpoint of the individual, the homosexual and the heterosexual have the same interest in deciding how he will live his own life, and, more narrowly, how he will conduct himself in his personal and voluntary associations with his companions. State intrusion into the private conduct of either is equally burdensome.

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· Jul 1

A bookshelf of games. Band of Blades, a single book, and Vaessen (multiple books) are both circles.

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· Jun 19

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

A bunch of numbers indicating my “weight” in LLM databases? I don’t understand.

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· Jun 19

So let’s be clear: Trump’s approach isn’t the “madman theory.” He latched onto the phrase to try to justify his erratic behavior. Some commentators played along. It’s long past time to stop. As @dknedal.bsky.social and I wrote back in 2017, Trump’s ‘craziness’ is simply bad foreign policy👇 /🧵

If Trump wants America to remain a dominant power, and wants others to respect American interests around the world, he needs to bolster American credibility. This requires a good measure of predictability, not the attitudes of an unpredictable rogue state.

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· Jun 19

Per the original piece, this is one reason the deal might still fall apart. The Iranians don’t trust the U.S. and they don’t trust Trump. And why should they? Some in the regime are already making this case, even though the MOU is a gift to Teheran. thehill.com/policy/inter...

The regime is also appealing to hard-liners in its messaging. “This memorandum does not mean trusting the enemy; it has been written with active distrust,” Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi told Iran’s Tasnim News Agency. “We will monitor the implementation of US commitments.”

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· Jun 19

The moment negotiating partners figure this out, they tend to get the upper hand. But that’s not the only reason Trump’s lack of impulse control undermines U.S. influence. It’s also because he can’t credibly commit to uphold agreements. 👇

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· Jun 19

The problem for Trump is that he’s *not* insensitive to costs. He’s highly sensitive to anything that he believes will undermine him: increases in gas prices, big stock market drops, etc. Hence “TACO.” As @notus.com stresses: the Iranians have figured this out, and that’s why they’re eating his 🥙.

Iran, experts say, has learned to focus on what Trump does and not just what he says.
And after two U.S.-Israeli assaults in less than two years since the president's return to office, Iran has seen that depleting stocks of U.S. weaponry "didn't move the needle for Trump," but hiking gas prices by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz did, Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, told NOTUS.

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· Jun 19

As we wrote 👇

Consider nuclear brinkmanship during the Cold War. A "rational" leader would never risk nuclear oblivion over an issue of minor importance. It is, in fact, difficult to imagine any particular dispute being worth nuclear Armageddon, especially one that does not directly threaten the American homeland. That left some questioning the value of the deterrent at all.
So how do you make it credible that the United States will risk a nuclear exchange over West Germany or Japan, let alone, as Nixon toyed with, Vietnam or Israel? Nixon thought that it might help create the impression that he was irrational — but in the sense of being prone to impulsive and disproportionate actions without thinking about the costs. There was nothing unpredictable about his underlying policy preferences or goals.

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· Jun 19

🧵This @notus.com bulletin inadvertently nails it. The “madman theory” isn’t about “unpredictability” in the Trump sense. It’s about *insensitivity to costs*. mailchi.mp/notus/madman...

White House officials have long said Trump's unpredictability is an essential part of his dealmaking — the main reason he's been able to get rivals to concede in ways other presidents haven't. But now Trump has to embrace a framework for talks that overwhelmingly benefit Iran, and his personal volatility is unlikely to tilt the discussions in the U.S.'s favor.
Iran, experts say, has learned to focus on what Trump does and not just what he says.
And after two U.S.-Israeli assaults in less than two years since the president's return to office, Iran has seen that depleting stocks of U.S. weaponry "didn't move the needle for Trump," but hiking gas prices by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz did, Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, told NOTUS.

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· Jun 18

It's also a very good indication you're in a bubble when you describe a party that receives 40%, 48%, and 43% of the male vote over the last three residential elections is the "girl's party" and the one that received 39%, 44%, and 46% of the female vote is the "boy's party."

Table titled "Trump's support among Hispanic, Black voters higher in 2024 than in 2020, 2016," showing percent of validated voters by candidate and vote margin (Dem minus Rep) across 2016 (Clinton/Trump), 2020 (Biden/Trump), and 2024 (Harris/Trump), broken out by gender within racial groups.
Overall gender gap narrowed over time: Men favored Trump by 11 points in 2016, 2 points in 2020, and 12 points in 2024 (41/52, 48/50, 43/55). Women favored the Democratic candidate by 15 points in 2016, 11 points in 2020, and 7 points in 2024 (54/39, 55/44, 53/46).
White men: Trump margin was -30 in 2016 (32/62), narrowed to -17 in 2020 (40/57), then widened to -20 in 2024 (39/59). White women: -2 in 2016 (45/47), -8 in 2020 (45/53), -4 in 2024 (47/51) — the only female subgroup favoring Trump in all three years shown.
Black men and women not reported for 2016. In 2020, Black men favored Biden +75 (87/12) and Black women +90 (95/5). In 2024, those margins narrowed to +54 for Black men (75/21) and +79 for Black women (89/10).
Hispanic men and women not reported for 2016. In 2020, Hispanic men favored Biden +18 (57/39) and Hispanic women +32 (65/33). In 2024, Hispanic men flipped to Trump by 2 points (48/50), and the Hispanic women margin narrowed to +6 (52/46). (generated by LLM, sorry all)

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· Jun 14

On the left is a screenshot of part of a phishing email that’s been around for at least six months. On the right is what Gemini tells you when you search for the email in Google… directly above results identifying it correctly as a scam.

Screenshot of an email. It reads: “Student Support Form Filed - Behavioral & Academic Support

OFFICIAL NOTIFICATION: STUDENT
SERVICES

Case ID: SSN-52532
Greetings,
This message is to inform you that a new Student Support Form has been logged for a student currently enrolled in your course. To maintain compliance with district policy and ensure the student receives timely intervention, please review the submission via the link below:

[Access Support Form Records]
Submission Details:
• Date Filed: June 13th, 2026
• Filed By: Parent/Guardian
• Category: Behavioral Concern / Academic
Support”

The rest is outside of the screenshot.

A screenshot of the AI Overview from Google search results: “AI Overview

This appears to be an automated alert notifying you that a student in your class requires academic or behavioral intervention. To ensure the student gets the help they need, you should click the provided link to review the specific concerns, document any classroom interventions you’ve already tried, and reply to the support team to coordinate next steps.”

The rest is cut off.

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· Jun 6

At Williams College for the kid’s graduation, in library special collections — where the kid works. And guess what i found, @abuaardvark.bsky.social?

Marc Lynch’s International Relations syllabus from 2000

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· May 21

13. Bennu is flopsie #codeorange

Top-down photo of a male orange tabby. He is curled up on his side, twisting such that the top of his belly is showing, his paws are raised, and his face is pointed toward the camera.

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· May 21

12. Through a fountain in the rain, Hong Kong.

Sheets of water falling between the camera and a small park with trees, waterway, and building.

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· May 20

11. Rain on car window, Hong Kong.

A picture through a car window distorted by rain, taken in the morning in Hong Kong.

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· May 20

10. @themountaingoats.bsky.social concert last Friday.

A photo of a concert. Blue saturated. Darnielle is partially obscured by people who are taller than me. Which is pretty much anybody.

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· May 17

Wait what?

A post that reads: "It's weird that Helen of Troy being played by a black actress is a problem, but most of the rest of the Mediterranean, Greek and Turkish characters being played by incredibly fair and blond haired people of British, Irish and Scandinavian descent isn't.
And by weird, I mean entirely predictable."

I've highlighted "Turkish characters."

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· May 9

Multi-party FPTP is insane. Look at both the absolute vote shares and the deltas.

LLM-generated alt-text: Wikipedia infobox for the 7 May 2026 United Kingdom local elections, covering 5,066 council seats across 136 unitary, metropolitan, county, district, and London councils in England, plus 6 directly elected mayors in England and 2 council by-elections in Wales. Results are 98.53% declared as of 9 May 2026 at 16:45 BST. A table presents five party leaders with headshots and the following data:

Reform UK, leader Nigel Farage (since 3 June 2024): 986 seats before (78 up for election); projected vote share 26%, down 4pp; 1,453 councillors, 14 councils; gains of +1,451 councillors, +14 councils.
Labour, leader Keir Starmer (since 4 April 2020): 5,830 seats before (2,196 up for election); projected vote share 17%, down 3pp; 1,049 councillors, 28 councils; losses of −1,446 councillors, −37 councils.
Liberal Democrats, leader Ed Davey (since 27 August 2020): 3,180 seats before (663 up for election); projected vote share 16%, down 1pp; 843 councillors, 15 councils; gains of +154 councillors, +1 council.
Conservative, leader Kemi Badenoch (since 2 November 2024): 4,180 seats before (1,134 up for election); projected vote share 17%, up 2pp; 797 councillors, 9 councils; losses of −563 councillors, −6 councils.
Green, leader Zack Polanski (since 2 September 2025): 914 seats before (170 up for election); projected vote share 18%, up 7pp; 550 councillors, 4 councils; gains of +404 councillors (councils figure partially cut off in image).

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· May 9

9. Moar #caturday

A medium-distance shot of an orange tabby sitting inside of a box. The box is standing on the floor, as if it were a freestanding doorway or window in the middle of a room. The cat can barely fit himself inside. He looks out and to his left. Objects line the wall behind him: boots, a standing space heater, a free-standing fan, a partially folded table with various items on top, and a bookcase — only a corner of which is in the frame.

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· May 9

8. #caturday

A black cat lies in a small (2" high) box, stacked on another identical box, stacked on another identical box. The three boxes are on a marble countertop. The photo is close up of the cat's face. She has green eyes, and her head is resting on the edge of the top box. Only her head and shoulders are visible.

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· Apr 30

Susan Collins being released to log some "I'm a moderate" votes in an election year != "GOP unity" starting "to crack." www.politico.com/live-updates...

"GOP unity over the Iran war started to crack Thursday when Sen. Susan Collins of Maine voted with Democrats to halt the conflict, marking the first time a Republican has changed their vote on the military campaign in the Middle East.

While the vote failed, the shift signaled President Donald Trump could soon face far more resistance over the conflict. That’s especially true as he blows past a legal deadline this week for the U.S. to exit the war without congressional authorization."

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· Apr 30

7. I needed a frontal-cortex off hobby. So, a few weeks ago, I followed the lead of one of my former PhD students (now a prof elsewhere) and tried painting minis a few weeks ago. I suck at it, but I do find it relaxing. Here are my first attempts 👇

Badly painted, cheap resin minis (some missing face details). Two female elf warriors dual-wielding swords and five goblin-ish figures: two with bows, two with swords, one with a spear. Painting supplies are in the background.

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· Apr 30

6. A much better view, which is what I actually meant to post for 5.

top-down view of a dry-erase grid board with cardboard props (five long tables arranged in an open-at-the-bottom rectangle), with a fifth, narrower "head table" on a raised platform. Various PC, NPC, and monster minis are on "the floor" or "on tables" on the mat. A drawn firepit sits at the center of the map. At the head table is a mini of Lich and a sorceress — an NPC held captive — and five orange plastic cubes representing seated, unconscious, undead "lords." Five plastic blocks in front of the table represent a magic barrier. Various mins, pens, and accruement are scattered around the map.

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· Apr 30

5. Part of the board for the second night of the boss battle in my Zoom-based D&D group, made up of a group of middle-aged former policy debaters. We've cycled through VTTs and theater of the mind, but this seems to be the best option these days.

Dan Nexon@dhnexon· Apr 28

4. Figures for the forthcoming book (Dynamics of Power Politics) with @pkmacdonald.bsky.social & @segoddard.bsky.social. Two of the logics of power politics: "severing" and "wedging." See alt-text for more details.