David Roth
@drmetwatch
Meteorologist. Into weather records. Soft spot for subtropical 🌀. 😻 and nature imagery, too.
This system northeast of Bermuda looks surprisingly good for a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation. 🐻⌚️
As you would imagine, this led to an update of the Louisiana value on the map.
Bertha’s center has at times been lured southwest to west-southwest by nearby convection. The center jump to the distant mid-level center remains improbable since its motion is misaligned with the shear vector. Bertha has lately moved west-northwest, back ashore, dictated by low-level steering.
Bertha briefly became a tropical storm. At the time, it had convection, albeit not well organized, near its low pressure center. It’s been so badly sheared the past 12+ hours that remnant low fits. Should its forward motion ever align with deep convection ahead of it, a center jump is possible.
This seems plausible after today’s events. So close to the Louisiana state rainfall record for a tropical cyclone or its remnants. Over 40” for June, so far. 🐻⌚️
Arthur regained its surface low at 12z. It’s elongated near northwest MS presently.
A cyclone with ~ 992 hPa pressure per offshore obs at noon their time. June low pressure records would be eclipsed at short POR sites if the cyclone came ashore at this intensity. For longer POR sites like Seattle and Portland, it would be close.
Spatial aspects of North Atlantic tropical cyclone and subtropical cyclone distribution
Something I plotted up showing how the Atlantic Hurricane Season shifts when taking the 3 mo ave RONI into account. El Niño conditions shift earlier in the tails. Neutral conditions shift later in the tails. La Niña conditions lead to even later shifts in the season, including the season peak.
Jangmi, beginning its extratropical transition, dropped Okinawa’s pressure to 980.4 hPa at 0900 UTC. This is shy of Kadena AFB’s record (POR since 1946) for June set 3 years ago, and marks the fourth time their sea level pressure dropped under 29” during June.
The Monthly Pressure Records webpage needed an image. Why not. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/rot...
One complex dies and another closer to an unanalyzed front forms. With El Niño coming, and the usual connection with Westerlies farther south/stronger than average, expect convective baroclinic lows to make runs at TC status from time to time. They may not be far offshore.
Mountains are pretty. But when they go volcanic, you never know what’s going to happen. :p
Surprised to see a graphic I recreated 27 years ago of an 1821 hurricane for the VA Hurricane History on television/YouTube
The situation evolves. Looks like King Salmon was the last AK WSO not previously included.
The red dots are where monthly sea level pressure records presently exist in the project. Note the 12 new dots in the Pacific. Thirteen new sites were added over the past month, including the Fiona landfall point in Canada.