Cutting back to the studio...

Immigration is obviously the key concern of defectors from Labour to Reform UK, and Labour are free to keep attempting a strategy on it that has yielded zero electoral success so far. Frankly, looking at these apathetic voters' other concerns, delivering on everyday issues would be more fruitful.

Winning back some losses to the Tories and Reform is not impossible, but is more of an uphill battle, and would still require those improvements on the cost of living and services. While some in these groups like Burnham, more dislike him, with Badenoch roughly as popular among losses to Reform.

Of course, Labour does not have to decide its future lies in winning back lost progressive voters, even if they are more numerous than other losses, are more receptive to returning to Labour, and have the most in common with those sticking with Labour.

Plus, it's not just Labour defectors the party has to worry about. Many of those sticking with the party are hardly enthusiasts for the govt to date, and share a lot of the concerns of those who've switched to other parties (with some open to switching to the Lib Dems and Greens themselves).

Values are also central to why many defectors have left Labour, particularly those who've switched to the Greens (the largest source of loss). They see their values far better reflected in their new party, with particular flash points including Gaza and transgender rights.

It is crucial that Labour do deliver on their 2024 coalition's core issues of the cost of living and public services, as Labour defectors are so disillusioned on the lack of delivery that they are not currently wedge messages that work in Labour's favour.

However, that benefit of the doubt can only last so long as these voters see and hear what they want, and crucially whether Labour can deliver on their core issues. No matter which way you cut it, the cost of living is pretty key here.

Tbf, very few towns in the UK would be brave enough to stick this is the middle of their high street, so I feel we deserve some recognition.

As to where next? Burnham currently holds a more positive image than Starmer did when he took office, though this is ofc far from everything. The govt still has to deliver on those two key issues, while Labour cannot continue to alienate large sections of its coalition. The question: do they learn?

But leadership has also been an issue. Starmer has not really ever been that popular, contesting GE24 with a net rating of -18, but opinion deteriorated rapidly in office, often for reasons above. His latest rating of -46 put him on a par with May (-49), Johnson (-53) and Sunak (-53) as they quit.

And because of this, it has ignored that many of its most glaring issues are the complaints common across all of their losses - the cost of living, public services, feelings of a lack of delivery and change - the key issues that helped Labour into power in the first place.

But another part of the problem has always been Labour's failure to understand its 2024 coalition, or basic electoral dynamics. It has lost voters to Reform, but these are a fairly unique fragment of their 2024 voters, v unlike those staying loyal or the greater number defecting to the Greens + LDs.

Since last autumn, Labour has bottomed out to its most loyal core, culminating in the disastrous 2026 devolved and local elections - annihilated in Wales, humiliated in Scotland, and losing a proportion of cllrs reserved for prior to major GE defeats (inc. record 75% loss in England outside London).

By this point, Labour weren't even the most trusted party by Labour voters on many key issues, let alone by the wider public.

Indeed, the "summer of immigration" was a huge failure for Labour. Raising the salience of an issue on which they were very weak, allowing Reform to solidify their post-locals gains. Reform voters were aware they were being appealed to, but were unmoved.

Then came a new flashpoint: the "islands of strangers" speech. Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters reacted strongly against it, with Starmer losing net positive favourability among 2024 Labour voters for the first time, while receiving absolutely no credit from voters on the right.

Ahead of the 2025 local elections, in which Labour lost a record-matching 66% of the seats it was defending, its coalition was already fragmenting in various directions - with roughly similar losses to the LDs, Greens and Reform.

Only a few months in, the proportion of Britons open to voting Labour had fallen substantially, with the next notable dip on this metric coming around the time of the Spring Statement, with dislike of disability benefit cuts then becoming a recurring complaint among Labour voters.

They started their time in govt badly, with Starmer's "things will get worse" speech, the corruption of freebiegate and the groundwork-less winter fuel payments announcement ending the honeymoon and going down like cold sick. After 100 days, nearly half of Lab voters were already disappointed.

The cost of living and public services were overwhelmingly the key issues for those who backed Labour. And of the six 'first steps' Labour gave itself, cutting NHS waiting times was clearly the top priority for 2024 Labour voters.

So how did we get here, with Starmer on the way out after two years? To some extent, it does go back to the beginning. It was not an enthusiastic victory for Labour. Getting rid of the Tories was the top reason people voted for them in 2024, though with their message of 'Change' also resonating.

Plus, a fifth of Reform UK voters have a positive opinion of Andy Burnham (likely more in the NW), which while still a small minority, is the most positive I've ever seen Reform voters about anything to do with Labour.

Ultimately, even if you want to be unjustifiably optimistic, this is a sharp downward trend being marginally slowed, not stopped and certainly not reversed. No matter how much the party wants to try and ignore electoral reality, these results were dreadful and the Tories are in a very bad place.

I mean, there's just so many red flags you can throw up about these results. They have majority control of zero (of 36) metropolitan boroughs for the first time since 2000, they've made a net loss in councillors for five successive years (something that's not happened in living memory), etc.

Their support also shows little signs of recovery, having fallen to its lowest levels in history last year. Projected shares showed only small increases, to - by far - their second lowest level in history.

Even in London, where they held up a bit better than in other parts of the country, including (somewhat by default) gaining control of a council, this is still a case of stagnant seat totals and historically low vote shares.

Overall, the Conservatives have fallen to just a fifth of councillors, a rate only previously seen during the years around Blair's landslide victory. While they claim to have found greenshoots of recovery, on the current trend, Reform hold (far) more councillors than the Tories this time next year.

While the Conservatives' rate of loss this year (41%) is lower than their rate last year (68%), this is almost entirely a figment of this year's baseline being more favourable. It is overall the 21st worst result by any party in the last 60 years, more akin to coalition-era LDs or losing govts.

Overall, this second year in a row of horrific losses has left Labour holding just 24% of all councillors in Britain, a rate only previously fallen to between 2008 and 2011. And this is with less than 40% of council seats having been contested over the last two years.