Edward Harrison

@edwardnh

Macro Strategist at Bloomberg. Ex-diplomat, ex-tech exec, ex-banker. Author of The Everything Risk newsletter. Opinions my own.

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Edward Harrison@edwardnh· Jun 11

Why would Iran negotiate? Trump: "we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela"

The United States will be hitting Iran (Whose Navy, Air Force, Radar, Anti Aircraft, and all other forms of Defense, together with most of its offensive capability, are GONE!), VERY HARD TONIGHT. At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela, which is working out brilliantly for both Venezuela and the United States of America. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Edward Harrison@edwardnh· Jun 7

I biked there yesterday too and saw this posted unironically

Edward Harrison@edwardnh· Apr 28

Sounds like Trump is about to do a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz and leave the nuclear issues for later.

Iran has just informed us that they are in a “State of Collapse.” They want us to “Open the Hormuz Strait,” as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation (Which I believe they will be able to do!). Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Edward Harrison@edwardnh· Apr 27

😂

Edward Harrison@edwardnh· Apr 26

🤔

Edward Harrison@edwardnh· Apr 22

Has anyone figured out yet why Larry Fitzgerald was at Kevin Warsh's senate hearing yesterday?

Edward Harrison@edwardnh· Apr 21

Trump on how he loves Tim Apple and how Trump was his savior. "For me it began with a phone call from Tim [Cook, Apple's CEO] at the beginning of my First Term. He had a fairly large problem that only I, as President, could fix."

I have always been a big fan of Tim Cook, and likewise, Steve Jobs, but if Steve was not taken from the Planet Earth so young, and ran the company instead of Tim, the company would have done well, but nowhere near as well as it has under Tim. For me it began with a phone call from Tim at the beginning of my First Term. He had a fairly large problem that only I, as President, could fix. Most people would have paid millions of dollars to a consultant, who I probably would not have known, but who would say that he knew me well. The fees would be paid but the job would not have gotten done. When I got the call I said, wow, it’s Tim Apple (Cook!) calling, how big is that? I was very impressed with myself to have the head of Apple calling to “kiss my ass.” Anyway, he explained his problem, a tough one it was, I felt he was right and got it taken care of, quickly and effectively. That was the beginning of a long and very nice relationship. During my five years as President, Tim would call me, but never too much, and I would help him where I could. Years latter, after 3 or 4 BIG HELPS, I started to say to people, anyone who would listen, that this guy is an amazing manager and leader. He makes these calls to me, I help him out (but not always, because he will, on occasion, be too aggressive in his ask!), and he gets the job done, QUICKLY, without a dime being given to those very expensive (millions of dollars!) consultants around town who sometimes get it done, and sometimes don’t. Anyway, Tim Cook had an AMAZING career, almost incomparable, and will go on and continue to do great work for Apple, and whatever else he chooses to work on. Quite simply, Tim Cook is an incredible guy!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Edward Harrison@edwardnh· Apr 16

😭

Every lifelong Catholic I've ever met is like "I think we're supposed to give this food to poor people" and every adult convert is like "the Archon of Constantinople's epistle on the Pentacostine rites of the eucharist clearly states women shouldn't have driver's licenses."

Edward Harrison@edwardnh· Apr 9

"presidents shouldn’t need the White House to be their finishing school... The consequences of having... one who is an inexperienced, aging and befuddled... are existential" @timobrien.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

All of this should remind Americans and the various institutions Trump has been testing and savaging since he vaulted onto the electoral stage in 2015 that presidents shouldn’t need the White House to be their finishing school. They should come to the job with tangible aptitudes for management, leadership, policy, rationality and decency, regardless of party or persuasion. The consequences of having a different kind of student squatting in the Oval Office – say, for example, one who is an inexperienced, aging and befuddled wanna-be-strongman who treats war like it’s a promo for his own unhinged reality TV show – are existential.

Edward Harrison@edwardnh· Mar 31

France has also denied US military planes access to their air space according to Trump

Edward Harrison@edwardnh· Mar 30

Also, if you look at the 4th WTI futures contract, so not the first month, you see prices rising again. If anything, the market is saying the risks from the war to oil supplies are undiminished or rising.

Edward Harrison@edwardnh· Mar 30

Also, ICYMI Trump now says the US will blow up Kharg - an easier thing to do than storming the Island - if Iran doesn't sign a deal and open the Strait of Hormuz. These same points about the Houthis and destroying oil infrastructure are operative in that case too. Iran has even more incentive then

The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately “Open for Business,” we will conclude our lovely “stay” in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet “touched.” This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47 year “Reign of Terror.” Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

Edward Harrison@edwardnh· Mar 23

Trump: "I am a BIG proponent of ICE wearing masks as they search for, and are forced to deal with, hardened criminals"

I am a BIG proponent of ICE wearing masks as they search for, and are forced to deal with, hardened criminals, many of whom were let into our Country by Sleepy Joe Biden and his wonderful “Border Czar,” Kamala (she never even went to the Border!), through their absolutely INSANE Open Border Policy. I would greatly appreciate, however, NO MASKS, when helping our Country out of the Democrat caused MESS at the airports, etc. Thank you! President DJT

Edward Harrison@edwardnh· Mar 23

This is what Iran is calling out as a completely fabricated reason for Trump's unilateral de-escalation. Iran says there have been zero contacts with the US

I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP

Edward Harrison@edwardnh· Mar 22

James Fallows: “This is the most despicable public statement by an American public official in my lifetime. It needs to be recognized as such.”

Edward Harrison@edwardnh· Mar 21

Basically you’re never winning when your adversary is trolling you for your desperate moves

Edward Harrison@edwardnh· Mar 19

To give you a sense of how underpriced a longer war is, look at this 4th futures contract over the last six years. You can see that the spike in the oil price in 2022 was much higher.