Ensembleator
@ensembleator
Semi-retired meteorologist, living in lovely #YVR since 1994. I often write forecasts using abbreviations due to social media character limits. Dnt wry, U wll gt it.
Altocumulus castellanus illuminated by the sunrise #YVR. Mid-level instability.
Just a min to share latest imagery. Some lightning Garibaldi Park this AM but the main event is to the S over the WA Cascades, racing N. Showers, chc ⚡ltr this AM #YVR. Gusty winds in advance.
Vry busy KFC WX day. At home upr low off the OR cst pumps unstbl air int Srn BC. Tail of upr trof alg the OR cst phases with unstbl plume ovr central OR to lift some convection ovr the LM early Thu AM followed by busy ⚡in the surrounding alpine PM and perhaps more ⚡city Thu eve. Not much precip tho
Swamped in KFC today w/a busy period coming up. Remarkable figure 8 pivoting upr lows embedded in the upr trof ofshr w/# YVR under a dry SSW flow this eve. Upr lows coalesce to off the OR coast Wed eve and pump monsoonal moisture to the S into SWBC for a chc 🚿s and risk ⚡by Thu AM thru Fri AM
Beautiful altocumulus billows this evening #YVR associated with the low lifting northeast and onto the BC Central coast. No weather here just nice skies
Busy KFC AM. Vry amplified pattn with large upr ridges to the ESE ovr Nebraska and W thru 155W w/a trof between them lurking along 134W. The trough pivots counterclockwise late Tue-Wed w/the flow over the LM bcmg more Sly. Mdls disagree on details but 🚿/⚡chcs rise sharply Thu #YVR. Cooler Fri
Models really having problems with Wed PM ovr SWBC. Does a trough to the N phase with and inject energy into the low closer to #YVR or not. Run-run the models change their solution. And it is very meaningful for the weather. Closer: showers, potentially ⚡. Further SW, clouds, warm, dry.
Last night's upper front well to the E this AM. Last night a few 🚿 N+W Van and up into the alpine but most of the city stayed dry. Some convergence cld this AM but most of the day is mostly 🌞. Vrbl hi cld/warmer Mon. Same Tue as an upr low sharpens off VI. Chc 🚿/⚡Wed but timing is an issue.
Symphony at sunset in David Lam park. I do hope the rain holds off. It’s pretty close.
Busy in the NW this AM. SWBC under a moist SWly flow aloft, E of an upper trof offshore. Vrbl skies tdy #YVR. Shwrs ovnite as the base of the upr trof lifts ovr the cst. Clds to start Sun AM with pm 🌞. Breezy. Upr Hi over the continent blds back NW with 🌞 and increasing temps Mon-Wed. Chc 🚿/⚡Thu
Weather caught btn springlike flow and more typical ridgy summer pattn. Decayng cold fnt ovr #YVR this AM w/some 🚿on radar. Chc the odd 🚿 this AM. Upr low nr Haida Gwaii drops SSE and stalls on the wknd w/SWBC undr a brisk SW flow. Mix sun/cld Sat/Sun. Chc 🚿. Avg T. More🌞 Mon-Tue, warmer.
Not, they don't. This is for Oakridge in #YVR. 2/13 models indicate max T > 30C. Sure it's going to be warm. Inland areas not exposed to inflow may get hot. But coastal areas stay modulated. Maybe⚡that PM too
Latest Euro ensemble suggests this week's heat wave a primarily E of the Rockies thing, w/the LM transitioning from a slightly coolish pattern to a somewhat warmer flow toward the end of next week. Not the best week to visit MB or ON. Fcst Winnipeg hi Mon 37C. No LM heatwave weather in sight.
Dvlpg wv W of VI tracks E, trailing a cold fnt thru #YVR Fri AM. In its wake upr low 52N 141W drops ESE to off the BC centrl cst Sat AM w/SWBC in a moist SW flow. The low shifts inland Sun w/SWBC undr a Wly flow. Mainly cldy tdy-Sat w/chc 🚿Fri AM. Coolish. Brisk SE wind Fri PM. Wknd dry. Warmer Mon
#YVR undr a moist WNW flow as an upr lo tracks E thru N BC. Vrbl sky tdy w/inflow as a sfc rdg blds onto the cst. More cld Thu as a wave dvlps off VI and tracks E. Flow alft bcms SW Fri as an upr low 57N 163W stalls off Haida Gwaii and drags an upr trof thru SWBC Sat AM. Mix sun/cld/chc lite🚿Fri-Sun
Some jellyfish cirrocumulus this morning #YVR as a trough approaches from the west
Brisk inflow ovnite cleared the air #YVR. Upr trof offshore shifts inland tdy w/ increasing mid-hi cld w/chc light 🚿 eve - Wed PM (little amounts). Mix vrbl hi-mid cld /🌞 Thu. Marine cld Fri AM then vrbl sky. Upr low 57N 176W brings cld/chc 🚿Sat. Partial clrg/dry Sun. Warm up nxt wk but no heat 🌊
Purple Air sensors show smoky air bleeding from the Fraser Canon into the Valley. Levels of 500+ micrograms/cubic meter measured at Boston Bar are very unhealthy
Lots of smoke in the Fraser Canyon this AM from a couple of out of control fires N of Boston Bar
Model reliability at a low ebb for the long range ovr BC as the usually reliable Euro ENS system does complete flip flops run-run w/the circulation/flow over the N Pac next wk. Reasonably safe to say #YVR remains on the edge of continental heat, although the Srn interior likely to get rather warm
Weakening upr trof over VI shifts E tdy, riding ovr the top of a flattish upr rdg to the S. Vrbl skies and mild #YVR. Some low cld Tue AM then nxt trof alg 140W brings increasing mid-hi cld Tue PM w/chc light 🚿 eve thru Wed PM. Mix vrbl hi/mid cld 🌞/breezy Thu-Sat. Temps modulated by inflow this wk
It's quite shocking, really. This is a freeway cam near San Bernardino yesterday PM and this AM:
Nice 4th effect inland from DT LA this AM with the smoke concentrated by the seabreeze into the San Bernardino Valley
Haze from fires in Nrn AB and the SW NWT entering the Valley this AM from the NE. It'll just look a bit hazy aloft #YVR
Super typhoon Bavi (13.8N 146.6E) making a beeline for Taiwan at the end of the week (Friday, July 10 AM PDT)
Urp rdg briefly blds onto the cst tday for mainly 🌞 skies #YVR + seasonable T. Upr trof N-S thru 142W tracks inland Mon w/vrbl skies. A tad warmer. Upr low 58N 151 W drops SE to Haida Gwaii Tue eve and drags an upr trof over the LM. More cld Tue w/🚿 eve tapering off Wed AM. Clrg PM. Mainly 🌞 Thu
Upr low tracks E thru central BC tdy w/ #YVR undr a brisk W flow aloft + inflo sfc. Vrbl skies/seasonably cool. Upr rdg blds onshore Sun w/mainly 🌞 skies + brisk wind beach. Vrbl hi cld Mon and warmer undr a SW flow. Upr trof approaches fm the W Tue w/increasing cld. Chc 🚿Wed AM/🌞PM. Mainly 🌞 Thu
A weak upr trof movg ovr a vry moist lo-level layer generating a few 🚿this AM #YVR. A flat rdg blds in its wake w/slo partial clrg later tdy. Muggy. Upr lo 55N 146W drops ESE, dragging a weak upr fnt over the LM ovnite w/a chc 🚿then tracks inland Sat w/a rdg blding in Sun. AM cld/PM 🌞 Sat. More 🌞Sun
