Sheldon Whitehouse Stan
@fanofsheldon
Go read electioncord.com
I expect this race to be somewhat close (high single digits might be the max), but people forget that the reason the 2018 race was so close was because Walker was actually net approved of on E day. It was Trump that sank him. With that in mind, these are good numbers for Crowley.
Similar to MI-04, where Dems also outvoted Rs in the Michigan primary….
Btw according to @electioncord.com proportio tool, we can see that NY-21 is very similar to PA-16…..where Ds just outvoted Rs in uncontested congressional primaries and the congressional district where the state house special is being held next week.
That poll is not good for AES, however consider this is the electorate of 2018 and that Trump's approvals are 10 points lower than 2018 in this poll and ask yourself if he will lose.
One last thing before I take a politics break but despite dropping out way earlier, more people voted for Sara Rodriguez than Mandela Barnes...... They really did not like Barnes
As @corncobanalysis.bsky.social pointed out to me, there is an EV tracker for this with L2 and democrats have a pretty decent sized advantage
Case in point (the runner up to the person replacing Stevens in the house)
Meanwhile over in WA-01 Dems are getting a combined 66.2 percent of the vote to Republican’s 26.4 percent (note an indie taking a large chunk of the remaining vote). In 2024 Dems got 63.1% to a combined 36.6 (including some clearly right leaning indies)
Close to all the vote is counted in WA-03, so we can do a rough comparison with 2024. In 2024, MGP (who was contested) got 45.9%. The Rs got a total of 51.5% (there were two Rs running). This year? Dems are getting a combined 55.1% to 42.7. That is a 18 point swing!
In Clark County, one of the biggest counties in WA-03 and a county that went to Harris by 7 and is left trending Dems are winning 60.8-38.1 This is a big deal!
In 95% in Skamania county, dems are winning 52.4-44.7…… This is a county Trump won 53-42 in 2024 and the last dem to win it was Obama 2008
Does everybody purposely memoryhole this part of his career?
The counties Kasich did the best in getting 60-70%…..have not been as catastrophic for Dems
This pattern seems to be repeating itself from the poll in Pennsylvania from Franklin & Murphy a few days back. 71% saying he’s doing a fair or poor job in Pennsylvania is far worse than the national picture
Not a ton of defections on with either Ds or Rs. Just a 12 point sweep with independents. The same thing happened for Dems in 2018